AUD/USD

This pair is a lot of work.

This pair is actually one of the most difficult to trade. Very complicated correlation to the global economy.

The major technical direction of the AUDUSD is southward but the market is in a corrective mode.

KP

Hi buddy! How do you do?! Long time no see mate. I always read your posts with grate interest and respect. Nice work KP!

Good luck to you!

Thanks mate for your encouragement.

Stay green.

KP

That explains much.

Curious behavior, indeed. I no longer have the charts, but I recall watching the reversal happen in December 2017. I remember distinctly thinking that it was manipulated for it didn't match the fundamentals. Someone priced it in, the moves were huge and the conclusion was MM moves.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZMgV4cTh/

edit: I'm bearish, but I will wait. #tradewhatyousee

AUD bullish:

It's quite scary how fast this pair has swung in the past. Just have a look at the weekly chart.

Look at the 3-day chart. This 0.77 area was a very important resistance from 2016 to 2017, which has been broken twice (Jul and Dec 2017) and is likely becoming support now.

Technically, there's a potential to go until 0.83xx zone, with possible extension until 0.8375 and 0.8525 zone.

Also, there's a psychological resistance at 0.80 until 0.81. So, either can happen, it can bounce again right there or pass through and then 0.80-0.81 become the next support level.

Long term, at the monthly chart, price tends to recover towards 0.97-0.99.

The thing is: Will AUD have enough mojo for it?
Currently I would say straight away NO, but not everything in FX market is really logical and played by the rules, so I'm alert to it.

AUD Bearish:

Economic crisis saying "BOOO!" to Australia, with no enough energy to keep things running and grow, real estate market diving really fast, public debt absolutely unsustainable (almost half of GDP), immigration rules being more strict, and lots companies which used to pray support to minorities and diversity advertising their jobs only for citizens (what is really crap, because it will lose a lot of intellectual property like how it happened in USA in the past and now they're trying to recover it, possibly opening the borders for specific specialised professionals soon). While USA is trying to step forward, Australia seems to start a journey back in time, and this, sooner or later is going to reflect on AUD and aussie's lifestyle.

So, considering these elements and much others, into the bearish scenario, price will continue pushing a little higher for now, but eventually it will dive abruptly, especially with USA's economy recovering really fast which is quite promising for USD and American people.

Because Australia isn't a industrialised country, it's mostrly based on services and importing, the currency needs to be high so the country can grow. But considering this scenario of a decaying economy + high public debt + high private debt, most of things overpriced and overvaluated, interests rates being raised everywhere, it will be very hard for Australia to survive keeping the interest rate at 1.50%. This is going to force AUD to crash, and at some point, the government official reports will be forced to tell people what they wouldn't like to listen and believe: "Our economy is not bulletproof mates! We're sorry!". People are feeling this already.

For this scenario, price tends to be dragged to 0.65 and range back to 0.70.

Real estate is decaying and is expected to burst. If this is confirmed, we will be talking about 0.48-0.50 with the same range, 0.65-070. Exciting days in FX market, but not good at all for Aussies.

Shorted @ 0.7705 in anticipation of a dollar swing.

A lot of work.

The dollar acting like a bag full of feral cats isn't helping much.

edit: Out at 0.7675

I was about to close and hit the sack when China let the cats out of the bag.

Shorted again at 0.7705

Second target HIT

The momentum is still pushing up. I guess AUD can take a double advantage of the trade war, as Australia is exempted from Trump on the one side, while gaining because of China’s response on the other side as well. In addition to that, there are some technical details which give me a bullish picture of the pair. Just my opinion.

Let’s see

Beautiful piece of art.

Consolidation around .7650 is probably forming a base for the next lap up.

Daily Chart

holding my shorts, looking between 0.76 to 0.75 range to cover. Then see if any demand from that area to go long.

Hi,

I'm not doctor gloom and doom but i really dont like the feeling of the economy at the moment, together with the trade wars as well as the inversion of the OIS curve. It may be a simple mis pricing but it feels like people are starting to get very jittery.

Steel has gotten hammered at the moment and is in steep backwardations out to August at least. I'm definitely beariesh Aud base on fundamentals but again, it is versus the USD and USD is also not looking good at the moment.

If you ask me though, lesser of two evils would be to short AUDUSD with a definite weaker AUD as compared to potential plus side of the USD.
Will check technicals and see if it aligns.

Regards

3 rising valley set up
pattern confirmed on break of neckline
good for long to start the next bullish leg of the 3rd valley

looks boring

i think 0.765 will hold the bottom

There is a looming conflict in Syria. In case of escalating, the commodity prices wil fly and so will the Australian Dollar.

Heavy stuff and disconcerting. While trading today I began to think, When the prices hit the fan, it's all on technical.

I'm not an expert, so understand that I'm parroting experienced traders:

Trade your plan.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
Cut your losses.
Remember to step out, walk away and get out. Then, come back fresh.

I've no idea what the dollar is doing and no idea where AUDUSD is headed or if it will even honor support/resistance. When in doubt I revert back to the trend when strong.

Target 3 HIT.

Hext targets:

0.7760
0.7780

This setup is valid as long as the price stays above 0.7688

Not an advice. Just my opinion.