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  • #221
  • Apr 8, 2018 5:25am Apr 8, 2018 5:25am
Quoting lithium1
Interesting, how about showing some trade setups to see if trading with fundamentals really works? https://www.dailyfx.com/forecasts?ref=SubNav following Dailyfx fundamental forecast, they are bearish on USD and AUD next week. The rest are neutral. What’s your view Samson85?
In relation to showing trade set ups I have done this (should be on this thread somewhere). For example I went long 3 weeks back when we had a big brexit week. I went long gbp/nzd and gbp/aud. I took two positions as a hedge just in case something went wrong in either country/central bank. I avoided dollar due to its mood swings. I profited from both trades but boe minutes let down alot of people that week.

In relation to dailyfx.com I would say I agree with them but I see the pound as bullish due to potential rate hikes although brexit is still lurking.

Aud is always tricky as we have to consider gold, copper, iron, oil etc. If we have a super bearish effect on dollar this week we could see wti go up. Which could strengthen cad and maybe some effect on aud. Trade war is weighing heavily on this.

Jpy should be bearish as the political scandal seems to have been put to rest but then again if we have more trump mood swings then jpy could gain strength.

You never ever know with NZD these days. It does what it wants.

Pages 4, 7 and 10 in this thread show examples of real entries and reasons for them. Hope that helps
  • #222
  • Apr 8, 2018 5:29am Apr 8, 2018 5:29am
Even though i dont dissagree with the way you trade, i do insist that technical analysis depicts all that is needed to know. Fundamentals and not...it s just a matter of experience and knowledge. and i can debate you with facts. Before any news come out my dear friend!
  • #223
  • Apr 8, 2018 5:34am Apr 8, 2018 5:34am
Quoting Neil0163
Interesting im purely a tech trader I believe that news does effect markets but not in the way we think I believe that major banks etc already factor potential news release into price already so weather that news was released or not price would still always find its intended target weather that be long or short. The only news I believe effects the market with uncertainty is when little rocket man fires his missels off over Japan nobody can factor that into price. see this chart you posted for me I understand that at some point price would have to...

I agree with you on this.

I knew there would be a reversls but I didn't trade it because I didn't know how choppy it would be and whether it would drive down further as it was pretty powerful news but it did in fact make a full reversal in relation to the pattern you mentioned.

The pattern you mentioned in the fundamental/sentiment world is called buy the rumour and sell the fact.

Take into account I banked big on that trade and it only lasted something like 13 minutes because i had 1st hand live access to the release of those minutes. So it was risk free and an easy trade. No technical form of trading could bank pips that quick or accurately.
  • #224
  • Apr 8, 2018 5:41am Apr 8, 2018 5:41am
Quoting stormtrader
Even though i dont dissagree with the way you trade, i do insist that technical analysis depicts all that is needed to know. Fundamentals and not...it s just a matter of experience and knowledge. and i can debate you with facts. Before any news come out my dear friend!

I have always said that technicals are good for point of entry and exit but the fundamentals/sentiment need to be the reason for the trade. Not a stochastic or a double bottom which could be short lived.
  • #225
  • Apr 8, 2018 5:58am Apr 8, 2018 5:58am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I have always said that technicals are good for point of entry and exit but the fundamentals/sentiment need to be the reason for the trade. Not a stochastic or a double bottom which could be short lived.
it all comes down to your trading profile and goals as a trader...fundamentals alone can not help any day trader...and i never mentioned any indicators my friend..they re laging indications of the price action
  • #226
  • Apr 8, 2018 6:00am Apr 8, 2018 6:00am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} In relation to showing trade set ups I have done this (should be on this thread somewhere). For example I went long 3 weeks back when we had a big brexit week. I went long gbp/nzd and gbp/aud. I took two positions as a hedge just in cassomething went wrong in either country/central bank. I avoided dollar due to its mood swings. I profited trades but boe minutes let down alot of people that week. In relation to dailyfx.com I would say I agree with them but I see the pound as bullish due to potential rate hikes although brexit is still lurking....
Im actually interested to see how accurate can you trade with fundamentals. Like what kind of winrate are you talking about here.

Jarratt Davis used to show his trades in myfxbook, but after a losing streak he stopped I think.

Another fundamentals trader Clifford Bennett also struggling now.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/PyroHarold/clifford-bennett-signal-fxcm/2395156
  • #227
  • Apr 8, 2018 6:02am Apr 8, 2018 6:02am
Quoting stormtrader
{quote} it all comes down to your trading profile and goals as a trader...fundamentals alone can not help any day trader...and i never mentioned any indicators my friend..they re laging indications of the price action
Of course we all need a strategy, but we need a core reason to be buying and selling.

I just read this morning in a thread that somone blew their account but I wonder if that person truly knows the reasons why their trades went wrong.
  • #228
  • Apr 8, 2018 6:11am Apr 8, 2018 6:11am
Quoting lithium1
{quote} Im actually interested to see how accurate can you trade with fundamentals. Like what kind of winrate are you talking about here. Jarratt Davis used to show his trades in myfxbook, but after a losing streak he stopped I think. Another fundamentals trader Clifford Bennett also struggling now. https://www.myfxbook.com/members/PyroHarold/clifford-bennett-signal-fxcm/2395156

Lol I was told that Jarratt stopped showing because he now has a hedge fund you can locate on Bloomberg.com and manages a few million. He wouldn't be able to show it on myfxbook.

Tbh February up to mid March was tricky as the market was all over the place. I feel bad for that Clifford and I hope recovers. Don't like seeing things like that. Lol he made 132% in January. Not so badd


If you understand the fundamental/sentiment then you will know what direction the pair is going in but you still need to potentially use your pivots and fibanachi to get a good point of entry/price. You can't just dive in, because the pair maybe consolidating or may need to pull back as traders take profit.

Gbp/cad for example. I made quite a few accurate trades from that weeks back because pound was bullish and nafta was killing cad. All you need to do is look at the 1 day chart to see the strong trend on gbp/cad and it lasted for quite a while.
  • #229
  • Apr 8, 2018 6:25am Apr 8, 2018 6:25am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol I was told that Jarratt stopped showing because he now has a hedge fund you can locate on Bloomberg.com and manages a few million. He wouldn't be able to show it on myfxbook. Tbh February up to mid March was tricky as the market was all over the place. I feel bad for that Clifford nd I hope recovers. Don't like seeing things like that. Lol he made 132% in January. Not sobadd If you understand the fundamental/sentiment then you will know what direction the pair is going in but you still need to potentially use your pivots and fibanachi...
In this case, you should rephrase your thread title. Both fundamentals and technicals analysis is needed to have an edge in trading. Because if you use solely fundamentals, you will not be able to trade profitably. If I understand your posts correctly.
  • #230
  • Apr 8, 2018 6:34am Apr 8, 2018 6:34am
Quoting lithium1
{quote} In this case, you should rephrase your thread title. Both fundamentals and technicals analysis is needed to have an edge in trading. Because if you use solely fundamentals, you will not be able to trade profitably. If I understand your posts correctly.
My point was the core focus has to be the fundamental/sentiment otherwise you'e buying blind.

Technicals can lead you to profit but your luckily trading the direction of the core fundamental if holding the trade for a long time.

Please see attached the live account of a technical trader I know who everyone use to look up to.

If you are a swing trader then point of entry isnt a massive deal if you catch the trade at near the start or mid phase. When day trading point of entry can be somewhat important depending on what's driving price. Nobody ever wants to buy at the high or sell at the low. That's plain common sense when buying or selling.
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  • #231
  • Apr 8, 2018 10:36am Apr 8, 2018 10:36am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} My point was the core focus has to be the fundamental/sentiment otherwise you'e buying blind. Technicals can lead you to profit but your luckily trading the direction of the core fundamental if holding the trade for a long time. Please see attaced the live account of a technical trader I know wo everyone use to look up to. If you are a swing trader then point of entry isnt a massive deal if you catch the trade at near the start or mid phase. When day trading point of entry can be somewhat important depending on what's driving price. Nobody...
Dude, the example you shown is a grid strategy, means the trader keeps adding to his losing trade until the market turns into his favour. Of course until one day, he used up his margin. It’s nothing so with technical or fundamentals, his problem was money management.
  • #232
  • Apr 8, 2018 10:46am Apr 8, 2018 10:46am
Quoting lithium1
{quote} Dude, the example you shown is a grid strategy, means the trader keeps adding to his losing trade until the market turns into his favour. Of course until one day, he used up his margin. It’s nothing so with technical or fundamentals, his problem was money management.
Lol he is a technical trader.

He made those trades after and ecb press conference not taking into consideration the fundamentals and got caught on the wrong side of a trade I'm assuming an upside down red candle made him think mega sell.

If he had heard draghi speak he would have seen that Draghi came across dovish but not dovish enough to last a few sessions.

Central banks are arguably the most powerful fundamentals and they ultimately drive markets.

We got Fomc minutes this week so let's see what happens.
  • #233
  • Apr 8, 2018 12:13pm Apr 8, 2018 12:13pm
Quoting Samson85
Hi, I just thought I would share this as I find it amazing how many people purely focusing on technicals rather than finding out what sentiment is driving the market. The reason why retail traders lose money is because they are not sailing their trades in the same direction as the big institutions. The big institutions only use technicals for point of entry or to close a trade. They would never use technical indicators to run a trade as they are trading billions on behalf of their clients. I use a professional news feed called Ransquawk which lets...

So, let me be clear, I am not saying that Forex news and fundamentals are not useful or that it’s impossible to make money by following them. But, what I AM saying is that you do not NEED them, and in my humble opinion they usually work to confuse and complicate a trader’s mindset.. what will you do? The ball is in your court. Are you ready to accept that trading off the news is irrational and pointless? Or are you going to hang on to your old news-trading habit and continue to try and “figure out” what is going to happen next? The truth is that you can never figure out what will happen next, all you can is trade the market with a high probability trading edge and make sure your winning trades out-pace your losers, as well as not over-trade or over-leverage your account.

Trading the market without any news variables influencing your decisions takes a huge amount of pressure and confusion off your shoulders. You don’t have to sit there biting your nails before Non-Farm Payrolls comes out anymore, and you don’t have to stay up all night reading some analyst’s forecast for the euro. Less information to digest means less confusion and the elimination of analysis-paralysis, A.K.A chasing your tail around in circles trying to “figure” shit out that simply can’t be “figured out”.
  • #234
  • Apr 8, 2018 6:59pm Apr 8, 2018 6:59pm
Quoting andinurhasan
{quote} So, let me be clear, I am not saying that Forex news and fundamentals are not useful or that it’s impossible to make money by following them. But, what I AM saying is that you do not NEED them, and in my humble opinion they usually work to confuse and complicate a trader’s mindset.. what will you do? The ball is in your court. Are you ready to accept that trading off the news is irrational and pointless? Or are you going to hang on to your old news-trading habit and continue to try and “figure out” what is going to happen next? The truth...

Thanks for your take on this.

Trading fundamentals/sentiment/news doesn't mean you have to make predictions or even trade NFP.

You can be very selective and wait for opportunities hen trading news.

It will only confuse you if you dont do your homework. If you simply don't understand what's going on then don't take the trade it's that simple.

This is all about opportuniies and knowing when to trade at the right time and not just doing so based on an rsi or stochastic.
  • #235
  • Apr 8, 2018 7:22pm Apr 8, 2018 7:22pm
As an intraday trader, I only care about HIGH IMPACT NEWS. And i only care WHEN that news is. I will not hold positions BEFORE them. AFTER news the decision will be clear.
News sentiment is definetly used by instos but its not straight forward. EG If theres bullish news coming and price is top edge then they will happily take price DOWN for the announcement. And vic versa. So as a retail trader IMO does it really matter? no.

of course its always better to know more and understand whats happening BUT I agree that IF you are buying and selling true discounts in liquid markets with correlated markets ALL the findamentals take care of themselves

if you are holding overnight to me that is investing and you should know fundamentals back to front.
  • #236
  • Apr 8, 2018 9:24pm Apr 8, 2018 9:24pm
samson, whats your bias on eurusd today , recent news on forexlive "More on the EUR zone recession price in the UK press" seems to bear side on eurusd....
right now, for me , the only way to become profitable is using fundamental analysis for long term only plus averaging, because having a good timing for entry still fifty fifty chance for me....
  • #237
  • Edited Apr 9, 2018 12:14am Apr 8, 2018 9:59pm | Edited Apr 9, 2018 12:14am
Quoting indosupre
samson, whats your bias on eurusd today , recent news on forexlive "More on the EUR zone recession price in the UK press" seems to bear side on eurusd.... right now, for me , the only way to become profitable is using fundamental analysis for long term only plus averaging, because having a good timing for entry still fifty fifty chance for me....
I heard a few people saying eur/USD will touch 1.21ish but we have Fomc this week so that could really determine what happens to the euro. We also have cpi as well for usd.

Also we have ecb minutes on Thursday which hopefully will shape the direction.

So my advice is not to trade eur/USD until Thursday.

https://forexlive.com/news/!/eurusd-continues-to-hang-on-to-key-support-levels-20180409
  • #238
  • Apr 9, 2018 1:45am Apr 9, 2018 1:45am
Barclays are shorting EUR/USD at 1.2265 with a target of 1.1948 (200 DMA)

CIBC are shorting USD/CAD 1.2775 with a target of 1.2485 stop at 1.2885
  • #239
  • Apr 9, 2018 6:15am Apr 9, 2018 6:15am
Hmmm.... Interesting strategy since you are basing your strategy on Fundamental analysis.
I am dreaming to trade on purely Fundamental Analysis also would you mind if you teach us?
Should we trade on interest rate decision?
  • #240
  • Apr 9, 2018 6:35am Apr 9, 2018 6:35am
Quoting neko1234
Hmmm.... Interesting strategy since you are basing your strategy on Fundamental analysis. I am dreaming to trade on purely Fundamental Analysis also would you mind if you teach us? Should we trade on interest rate decision?
TBH with you I dont have the time to teach.

I would recommend you start with these videos like I did -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80eJbVhxWlI&t=2072s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80eJbVhxWlI&t=2072s)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W0et0enfQs&t=1502s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W0et0enfQs&t=1502s)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsQBjHK-SH4&t=1729s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsQBjHK-SH4&t=1729s)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeXNJEIhVbo&t=1873s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeXNJEIhVbo&t=1873s)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIKaMiZWPrQ&t=677s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIKaMiZWPrQ&t=677s)
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