Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100% | Page 10 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Turn $100 into $10k in 100 trading days = high stress high RR 121 replies

High Leverage Trading, Going For A 100 Million, 100% A Week 149 replies

High Leverage Trading, 100k To 100 Million, 100% A Week 23 replies

Always Trading With a 1/1 RR Ratio 25 replies

The Market is always Technical 0 replies

Attachments: Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%
Exit Attachments

Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

  • #181
  • Apr 3, 2018 9:50pm Apr 3, 2018 9:50pm
Have to disagree with this

institutions spend millions using the greatest minds and computers in the world to analyze the fundamentals.

As a retailer how can we possibly compete. Knowing cpi numbers and reading speeches you think thats going to help?

As retailers the best way for us to take advantage is to see what the instos are doing AND buy discount SELL premium - this is technical analysis. NOT stochastics, fibs, waves or macds but accumulation, distributions and futures options. Takes years of experience and understanding but once achieved the world is yours.
  • #182
  • Apr 3, 2018 10:26pm Apr 3, 2018 10:26pm
Quoting MLeslie
Have to disagree with this institutions spend millions using the greatest minds and computers in the world to analyze the fundamentals. As a retailer how can we possibly compete. Knowing cpi numbers and reading speeches you think thats going to help? As retailers the best way for us to take advantage is to see what the instos are doing AND buy discount SELL premium - this is technical analysis. NOT stochastics, fibs, waves or macds but accumulation, distributions and futures options. Takes years of experience and understanding but once achieved...
Im not saying that Technical analysis do not work completely, but rather, to question the kind of blind faith retail traders put into it.
If it were really that profitable, wont institutions already be milking money from TA? How are we going to fight with them then?
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #183
  • Apr 4, 2018 1:16am Apr 4, 2018 1:16am
Quoting synicz
{quote} Im not saying that Technical analysis do not work completely, but rather, to question the kind of blind faith retail traders put into it. If it were really that profitable, wont institutions already be milking money from TA? How are we going to fight with them then?
one way to fight them is trade at the right times. This is liquid times. Instos are big but even they have limits. They cannot control and accumulate infinetly. A lot of this is timing thas what retailers cant get their head around. Trading asia for example is plain idiocy and before high impact news you will get creamed. No rules of auction will work. But at opens youll notice the liquidity and nice auctions start to take place.
To be clear again stochastics, fobs, gann, macds, mas, anything that is priced based isnt going to help you for a long term trading career. Common sense. Indicators are based on Price. So the indicator youre using is OLD AND LAGGING and means nothing other than yesterdays discounts.
  • #184
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:06am Apr 4, 2018 7:06am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} You need access to a quick news feed. Forexlive.com is free. So if you go on there site via your mobile you can subcribe and receive free alerts about news. Ransquak is is very good but you have to pay.
I setup a twitter to follow some news sources. Joined the forexlive telegram group. I also signed up to a demo with FxPro to get access to their audiosquawk for free, although it's not great it's still better than nothing and free.

With all this setup today I can see how I could have made a short play on the Dollar yen as USChina trade war is a hot topic in news today. Next time I catch an opportunity I will take it.




Quoting MLeslie
{quote} one way to fight them is trade at the right times. This is liquid times. Instos are big but even they have limits. They cannot control and accumulate infinetly. A lot of this is timing thas what retailers cant get their head around. Trading asia for example is plain idiocy and before high impact news you will get creamed. No rules of auction will work. But at opens youll notice the liquidity and nice auctions start to take place. To be clear again stochastics, fobs, gann, macds, mas, anything that is priced based isnt going to help you for...
You made a comment about how TA allows you to buy at discount and sell at premium, the only way to know whether something is over or undervalued is to be up to date with the evolving economic climate. When the data changes, the fair value changes, and yesterday's premium could easily become today's fair value as markets are dynamic and reactive.

You also say that price is indicators lag, guess what, so does the price chart you're looking at. Charts only tell us what has happened historically.

I'm not saying TA is useless, but it shouldn't be used in isolation IMO. People say S/D is what drives price, that's right, but do you know what drives S/D? It's data, i.e. something has changed and now it's time to reassess value and reassess exposure.

Fundamentals drive price and tell us how the market is going to move, T/A tells us where a safe place is to get in on those moves.

TA and fundamentals should be used together.
  • #185
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:33am Apr 4, 2018 7:33am
Quoting wannabebig
{quote} I setup a twitter to follow some news sources. Joined the forexlive telegram group. I also signed up to a demo with FxPro to get access to their audiosquawk for free, although it's not great it's still better than nothing and free. With all this setup today I can see how I could have made a short play on the Dollar yen as USChina trade war is a hot topic in news today. Next time I catch an opportunity I will take it. {quote} You made a comment about how TA allows you to buy at discount and sell at premium, the only way to know whether something...
Follow @antbarton89 he delivers very relevant stuff.

Are you getting the forexlive.com news alerts pop up on your phone?

You could have caught quite alot of pips if you had shorted the right jpy pair.

Also Dow Jones took a super hit on the news. Down over 500 points.
  • #186
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:55am Apr 4, 2018 7:55am
Quoting wannabebig
{quote} I setup a twitter to follow some news sources. Joined the forexlive telegram group. I also signed up to a demo with FxPro to get access to their audiosquawk for free, although it's not great it's still better than nothing and free. With all this setup today I can see how I could have made a short play on the Dollar yen as USChina trade war is a hot topic in news today. Next time I catch an opportunity I will take it. {quote} You made a comment about how TA allows you to buy at discount and sell at premium, the only way to know whether...
Yes I agree. By fundamentals I was talking about MACRO so upcoming CPIs Rates etc. and speeches what they say. You are right the price relates to its environment and yes I am watching these fundamentals at my entry/exits. Real time correlations. TA to me is auctioning of price/volume analysis. Its whats actually happening as its real. Fobs stochs arent real they are calculations of what happened and are made to fit a story. If that makes sense. Great for scammers selling hindsight to the masses.
Also to be clear im an intraday trader so in and out never holding very long and certainly never overnight. I dont really know how to trade/invest long term. Its a different game in my opinion. Whatever you do IMO stick to one way and master it with experience.
  • #187
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:32am Apr 4, 2018 8:32am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Follow @antbarton89 he delivers very relevant stuff. Are you getting the forexlive.com news alerts pop up on your phone? You could have caught quite alot of pips if you had shorted the right jpy pair. Also Dow Jones took a super hit on the news. Down over 500 points.
Thanks for that, I've seen a few people retweet him, just gave him a follow.
I didn't sign up for any kind of alerts with forexlive so can't speak on that, I simply joined their telegram group.
Missed the move unfortunately.

Quoting MLeslie
{quote} Yes I agree. By fundamentals I was talking about MACRO so upcoming CPIs Rates etc. and speeches what they say. You are right the price relates to its environment and yes I am watching these fundamentals at my entry/exits. Real time correlations. TA to me is auctioning of price/volume analysis. Its whats actually happening as its real. Fobs stochs arent real they are calculations of what happened and are made to fit a story. If that makes sense. Great for scammers selling hindsight to the masses. Also to be clear im an intraday trader so...
Yes, my bad in that case, I didn't realise you're an intraday trader. Macro isn't so important but certainly realtime news is as it allows you to capitalise on the narrow window of opportunity that comes with breaking news.

I'm trying to use a swing approach at the moment using daily and 4h to make my plays, so naturally the sentiment and macro dynamics become more influential on the higher timeframes.

I also don't know much about long term investing either but from what I understand it involves a lot of analysis, capital, and patience!
  • #188
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:36am Apr 4, 2018 8:36am
Quoting wannabebig
{quote} Thanks for that, I've seen a few people retweet him, just gave him a follow. I didn't sign up for any kind of alerts with forexlive so can't speak on that, I simply joined their telegram group. Missed the move unfortunately. {quote} Yes, my bad in that case, I didn't realise you're an intraday trader. Macro isn't so important but certainly realtime news is as it allows you to capitalise on the narrow window of opportunity that comes with breaking news. I'm trying to use a swing approach at the moment using daily and 4h to make my plays,...

If you go on to their website with your mobile it asks if you want to subscribe and you'l get the news in the same way your receive a tweet at the top of your phone. I have Twitter, forexlive and ransquawk. Forexlive is valuable because it still works when going out.
  • #189
  • Apr 4, 2018 3:26pm Apr 4, 2018 3:26pm
The risk off sentiment helped provide a pullback for yesterday's gains which I got in on.

Traders seem to be taking positivity from nafta but the trade war is going to tie the arms of poloz even though cpi is above 2%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20180405-032211.png Size: 180 KB
  • #190
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:05pm Apr 4, 2018 7:05pm
Quoting Samson85
The risk off sentiment helped provide a pullback for yesterday's gains which I got in on. Traders seem to be taking positivity from nafta but the trade war is going to tie the arms of poloz even though cpi is above 2% {image}
i am curious to know if there was any live news that mentioned about risk off sentiment when it happened? Forex live had no news whatsoever.

I was in a long aud/usd trade and it reversed without any apparent sentiment reasons. That stopped me out. And within a few hours it erased all its losses.

I respected the stop loss as I didn't want to end up holding onto losses for too long. But definitely would have increased my tolerance for loss if I had more information at that point.
  • #191
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:10pm Apr 4, 2018 7:10pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Follow @antbarton89 he delivers very relevant stuff. Are you getting the forexlive.com news alerts pop up on your phone? You could have caught quite alot of pips if you had shorted the right jpy pair. Also Dow Jones took a super hit on the news. Down over 500 points.
Was there something that prompted the shorting of jpy pair? Would be good to hear your thought process about how you went about deciding on shorting the jpy.
  • #192
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:34pm Apr 4, 2018 7:34pm
Quoting nathaniel
{quote} Was there something that prompted the shorting of jpy pair? Would be good to hear your thought process about how you went about deciding on shorting the jpy.
China were retaliating with to the U.S. with their own tariffs which caused stocks and commodities to fall. Tensions were later eased between the two with China kind of giving in.
  • #193
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:41pm Apr 4, 2018 7:41pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} China were retaliating with to the U.S. with their own tariffs which caused stocks and commodities to fall. Tensions were later eased between the two with China kind of giving in.
That has been the general theme for the past week isn't it? Stocks and commodities have been falling and rising causing quite a bit of choppiness. So when you decided to short jpy pairs, is it because your general view is that jpy pair appreciation is short lived because of the trade war and you are looking to short at every good opportunity?
  • #194
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:56pm Apr 4, 2018 7:56pm
Quoting nathaniel
{quote} That has been the general theme for the past week isn't it? Stocks and commodities have been falling and rising causing quite a bit of choppiness. So when you decided to short jpy pairs, is it because your general view is that jpy pair appreciation is short lived because of the trade war and you are looking to short at every good opportunity?

There are two ways to approach this.

You could carry out the trade as soon as you hear the news or you could trade the reversal.

I suggest you use pivot points and the fibanachi to assist you. You can also set a limit order to a % of the decline to catch a good entry.

Look at my cad jpy trade above. You'll see that I traded the reversal as it was dancing around on the daily pivot (daily pivot very powerful). I choose to trade the break out of the daily high with a small stop loss.

Whenever there is bad news some things will fall. Ask yourself this; is the news powerful enough to cause a continuous downtrend, if not then wait to buy it back. The same applies to something that rises rapidly. It needs to come back down so look for a short entry. Just make sure it's not powerful news as the upward or downward trend could last for days, weeks or months. The reason today's trade war news didn't last forever is because it's been going on and on for a bit of time now so it's just casual sentiment.
  • #195
  • Apr 5, 2018 7:51pm Apr 5, 2018 7:51pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} There are two ways to approach this. You could carry out the trade as soon as you hear the news or you could trade the reversal. I suggest you use pivot points and the fibanachi to assist you. You can also set a limit order to a % of the decline to catch a good entry. Look at my cad jpy trade above. You'll see that I traded the reversal as it was dancing around on the daily pivot (daily pivot very powerful). I choose to trade the break out of the daily high with a small stop loss. Whenever there is bad news some things will fall. Ask yourself...
I must say that's a really sound sentiment analysis that makes a lot of sense. It happened again this morning. Trumph threatened to impose another USD100 billion tariffs. Aussie dollar weakened immediately and Loonie strengthened. It was short lived after more positive news surfaced. Both currencies seem to be reversing.

Something that I am still figuring out is a good place to take profit. Experienced situations where I am +20 pips and it reverses against me a couple of times.

Do you have any particular reason for using daily pivots?

I am also curious to know how long you have been applying this strategy to your investment/trading and have you tried implementing a set of rules to automate the trading?
  • #196
  • Apr 5, 2018 9:44pm Apr 5, 2018 9:44pm
Quoting nathaniel
{quote} I must say that's a really sound sentiment analysis that makes a lot of sense. It happened again this morning. Trumph threatened to impose another USD100 billion tariffs. Aussie dollar weakened immediately and Loonie strengthened. It was short lived after more positive news surfaced. Both currencies seem to be reversing. Something that I am still figuring out is a good place to take profit. Experienced situations where I am +20 pips and it reverses against me a couple of times. Do you have any particular reason for using daily pivots? I...

Pivot points are good for buying selling and setting targets. The best thing you could do is apply 'extended pivot points to your platform.

If you look at the picture I posted you'l see it's gbp/USD with extended pivot points. Notice how alot of the times hits the pivot levels which which are made up of resistance 1 2 3 and support 1 2 3 and the daily pivot (yellow line which is very powerful). You can buy and sell from these zones and use the pivot points as targets to hit.

For example if you had taken a long on cable let's say a few hours ago you could have used that daily pivot as a target as it's just rejected the daily pivot point (1.4022). You can also see that it hit the previous support 2 pivot point which would have been a good place to buy.

When using pivots you really need to understad the strength of a currency at the time because it can go through pivots with or without hesitation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20180406-094116.png Size: 158 KB
  • #197
  • Apr 6, 2018 3:19am Apr 6, 2018 3:19am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Pivot points are good for buying selling and setting targets. The best thing you could do is apply 'extended pivot points to your platform. If you look at the picture I posted you'l see it's gbp/USD with extended pivot points. Notice how alot of the times hits the pivot levels which which are made up of resistance 1 2 3 and support 1 2 3 and the daily pivot (yellow line which is very powerful). You can buy and sell from these zones and use the pivot points as targets to hit. For example if you had taken a long on cable let's say a few hours...
The central pivot is really powerful, especially for mean reversion plays. You can test the probability of hitting the pivot and each level (s/r123) for a pair within excel fairly easily.
Knowing the probabilities of technicals is really important. I'll bet things become even more juicy when you throw in a sentiment catalyst that ties in with the PP probabilities!
  • #198
  • Apr 6, 2018 5:34am Apr 6, 2018 5:34am
Quoting wannabebig
{quote} The central pivot is really powerful, especially for mean reversion plays. You can test the probability of hitting the pivot and each level (s/r123) for a pair within excel fairly easily. Knowing the probabilities of technicals is really important. I'll bet things become even more juicy when you throw in a sentiment catalyst that ties in with the PP probabilities!

Lol it becomes very juicy when a pivot point is in line with a fibanach retracement
  • #199
  • Apr 6, 2018 6:51am Apr 6, 2018 6:51am
In my opinion technical analysis is better. It could be automatized.
  • #200
  • Apr 6, 2018 8:38am Apr 6, 2018 8:38am
Quoting explorn
In my opinion technical analysis is better. It could be automatized.
It's not about opinions it's about facts and how banks make money as well as successul traders.

Technical is good but you need fundamentals to guide you otherwise you are trading blind.
8 traders viewing now