(binned per thread starter’s request) Chart Patterns

Some people have been liking my post and I get a few inbox questions with regards to chart patterns, I trade naked based alone on chart patterns I use 39 chart patterns. These don’t always play out as you guys know but it’s just how I trade. I trade the Daily and 4 hours and sometimes I use the 15 minute. Anyway I’ll post up on here what I’m looking at plus it helps me identify where I went wrong and what worked for me.

All I ask is if you put a chart up please draw it up on a naked chart so it’s easy for people to see and not rammed with every indicator under the sun causin actual chart to be all squashed up.

Finally I don’t trade harmonic patterns they do work but i just don’t trade them

UPDATE
How to view if a trend is getting stronger or weaker.
I use Projection and Depth take a look at the chart below on GU I see the bear trend getting weaker.
Why ?
Rule is as follows-A INCREASE in Projection is a sign of a healthy trend (STRONG)
A DECREASE in projection is a sign of a unhealthy trend (WEAK)
A DECREASE in depth is a sign of a healthy trend (STRONG)
A INCREASE in depth is a sign of a unhealthy trend (WEAK)

The chart below shows projection (purple) and depth (Red)
note how we are seeing a decrease in projection (or staying same no increase) and the depth (red) is now starting to increase this bear trend is not healthy.
https://youtu.be/r8gDiNsoN_c

EU
Arr Descending triangle now triangles can break either up or down there isn’t really anyway of knowing until the breakout happens.
BO usually occurs around 62% of the apex the reason I’ve favoured the downside break is because price needs to correct there has been no correction as of yet just consolodation and the mouth of my triangle ties perfectly with the “resistance turned support level”

How do I trade it, well aggressive you can trade the break of the triangle but note that price could easy false break as it did in the past like you can see, I like to look for an engulfing candle then get in on the next candle or wait for a pull back on the breakout which is the more safer option.....definitely one to watch we will see.

GJ
This is a 3 valley rising set up. This is interesting I’m not in any trades this week as it’s NFP and I want to stay away but I saw this and decided it be interesting to see how it plays out. Note the screen shot is just as the breakout is happening, I’ll check this one out tomorrow to see if the pattern worked out or not but I’m looking at upside movement (short term) on GJ

UJ
UJ for me is forming a head and shoulders.....classic if for extra confluence as well take a look left and you’ll see price is in a strong demand zone it shot off like a rocket! Question is when will she take off, another one to watch guys long on the UJ

XAUUSD
Gold has formed that double top but note how both tops where very narrow/sharp there a many different types of double top for the way I’ve learnt this is known as a Adam+Adam, don’t ask me why it’s the way I’ve learnt yes you do get eves as well. Anyway I foresee gold to carry on down to test around 1309 before deciding on further direction, on the way down we may very well see a few bear flag formations.
Take a look at the daily you’ll see this is the right side forming on the M formation with the neckline ie the bottom one the v is about to be broken, once broken wait for a pull back and potential short

Hi Neil0163.

Been playing this one for awhile now but on a lower time frame 15 min and missed the H&S Pattern

it needs to break above the 107.085 area before i buy in again

Screenshot 2018-04-05 14.53.26.jpg (https://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=2747924&stc=1&d=1522911458)

Great catch Neil,

just picked up $120.65 thank you

Thats brill buddy!!

GU
Again I’m not trading this week due to it being holidays and no major players being really involved here from the UK.
Gu has made a bearish flag, you can see the impulsive down move and a real grind to try and get back up also known as the correction. Now this is why I like to wait for a breakout to occur followed by a weak pull back if you see the chart we get the engulfing bear candle in the upwards channel, brill can it break trendline, next candle breaks trendline and closes below. Now imagine the classic breakout trade of getting in on the next candle after its broke the trendline you’ve been hit with a fake.

What so we do simple we wait, price will always pull back fact if we miss a huge impulsive move so be it I’ll get in on the pull back thing is price cannot continue in one direction without correcting it’s self that is fact. Look at the EU Huge rally up and now in consolodation it needs to correct of course my plan could be wrong and it takes off with out me, no worries I’ll wait for it to correct. Just have to hold your horses and see what price does it’s a waiting game left price come to you don’t chase it.

Well the GU played out

EU could be potentially playing out but I’d like it to clear that low!
triangle breaks around 62% in remember that

Remember guys NFP tomorrow huge news these patterns could simply retrace back into them selfs I’m not taking my chances yet will trade next week despite GU playing out
like I said before not to worry I’ll get in on the Pullback

Also think about guys, your a big bank you need to fill your position GBPUSD just gone short, how many traders do you think will be jumping into the downwards move “this thing broke my flag I need to get on this I’m in I’ll put my stop at the last high” NFP release what can banks do manipulate price let’s take those stops let’s by GBP and collect all those stops then we can just short it! Here’s one and fundemtalist will hate me for this
NEWS DOSENT EFFECT PRICE!!!
but Neil how can you say that when NFP is released price moves, granted it does move but price will always go where it’s intended to with or without news, news is factored in to price already, the NFP release tomorrow is just a reason for banks to hide there footsteps they have huge positions and can’t get filled on everything without liquidity how do they get that easy take stops of the little guys. I think tomorrow price will rocket upwards on the GU and maybe test that breakout guess what that’s where we short!
banks buy into selling pressure and banks sell into buying pressure remember that.

The only news that will effect price is for example when North Korea decide to wang rockets off that can’t be factored into price. News such as that does effect price.

Finally the UJ I said before this was head and shoulders and people should be looking long.

Almost forgot gold,
starting to correct as previous stated right at that level. Of course these patterns are all well and good but like I keep going on about it’s not confirmed until the release tomorrow hence the reason I haven’t jumped in any trades this week

HI folks,

Is this seen as being bearish it's the US 30 Index, I see it as bearish flag

Update GU we had the bearish flag I drew break yesterday I thought that price would continue down and I was looking to get in a pull back however the pull back was strong new pattern setup has now formed I shall post chart when I get in for now I’ll say bump and run long

I’d say so buddy

Here’s what I’m looking at for GU, predicted target comes in at that strong supply zone.

So this is my weekly top down analysis on the GU,

first the weekly chart so this theory is based on the fact price cannot continue up without some form of retracement price needs to pull back in order to go higher that is fact.
keep this in mind
short term=long
medium term=short
long term(end of the year)=long

thats my bias so in the medium term I’m looking short. Ok so what can I do to get short what do I anticipate the market doing to get in an ideal short position well I think it will make a tripple top.

from the tripple top on the weekly a push down to test the the middle part of the M formation. This is a strong level of support which will need power to be broke, how can this be done well a bear flag (big impulsive move down followed by a pull back as it gathers strength as we seen in the previous flag I drew this should then break that support. From there down to the bottom of the M formation on the weekly to complete the correction from there a push to new highs.

thats the weekly chart.

So down to the daily what do we see on this chart well exactly the same as the weekly chart my daily is used to zoom in on the medium term bias
The daily shows the same as the weekly but more zoomed in so what do we see on here again the initial short term bias tripple top with the down move to start that bear flag. Take a look closer at that bear flag on the daily it’s another smaller M pattern completed!! Strange hey. Now here’s more confluence we take our tripple top high to low as the size of intended target and project that, now the way to trade a tripple top pattern is we wait for a breakout below the lows if we place our blue projected line from the lows of the tripple top look where it comes in at.....right at the completion of the M formation on the weekly....strange hey!

Finally our our short term goal is long so we can get to that tripple top what is price showing me. Well I go to my 4 hour for entry and what do I see I posted this yesterday it’s my run and bump pattern. Now this pattern can consists of 2 bumps rather than the 1 if we get a break of our trendline then the run should run lol.

now don’t forget guys this is my plan I have a plan at what I’m looking for when price gets to each stage
stage 1-move to TT
stage 2-move down from TT
stage 3- complete of smaller M formation/initial bear flag begins
stage 5-pull back to break support
stage 6-completion of weekly correction
stage 7-move to new highs

Now all this could be wrong but all I can do is break my plan down into short medium and long term stages once price gets to each stage I’ll assess to see if my plan could still
hold up, if not I’ll adjust to price and see what I can see on my charts