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  • #18,181
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:26am Apr 4, 2018 7:26am
Quoting Skracor247
So why no big swing for non-farm??? Anyone? Really great better than expected news for US. Should be major US strength right?
US traders not in? to tune the machines?

Maybe people waiting for ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI?
  • #18,182
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:26am Apr 4, 2018 7:26am
Wait fo friday for confirmation on the higher wages due to full employment pressure, if we get confirmation should trigger a big move south
  • #18,183
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:27am Apr 4, 2018 7:27am
Quoting Skracor247
So why no big swing for non-farm??? Anyone? Really great better than expected news for US. Should be major US strength right?
What? ...next big US data in 90 minutes! ...maybe dull, maybe not...
Member
  • #18,184
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:36am Apr 4, 2018 7:36am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} What? ...next big US data in 90 minutes! ...maybe dull, maybe not...
Most of the ADP releases used to look like todays reaction. Blah to nothing so I started ignoring them. I remember a few years ago when ADP adjusted their calculations to be more "accurate". It took most of the punch out of regular Non-Farm numbers. Maybe next month they will reverse the effect again.
  • #18,185
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:40am Apr 4, 2018 7:40am
Quoting Skracor247
{quote} Most of the ADP releases used to look like todays reaction. Blah to nothing so I started ignoring them. I remember a few years ago when ADP adjusted their calculations to be more "accurate". It took most of the punch out of regular Non-Farm numbers. Maybe next month they will reverse the effect again.
- Fade poor NY reaction to the China's tariffs retaliation!
- ADP good numbers, but low impact!
...you're right, all crap until NFP
Member
  • #18,186
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:48am Apr 4, 2018 7:48am
Quoting skillz16
Does anyone else feel like the "talk cycle" is soon going to be this?: US economy slowing due to tariffs with China. US numbers start getting bad ... hey wait, the EU is still willing to trade with China No rate hikes in US, dollar down, EUR up. haha, but suppose the fundies don't matter. Just my tinfoil hat theory. I'd bet sooner rather than later FED HEADS start to use tariffs as an excuse to delay the hike(s). Right? Another side question: how long until our debt is unsustainable and will need to be defaulted on (some)? I heard by 2025...
Truth is China needs the US.
The last decades of growth have come because of the large trade deficit the US has been running with China. This is a wealth transfer fueled by an artificially weak Yuan. They have been in a trade war with the US for quite some time if you look below the surface. If they had floated their currency a decade ago, when they should have, that giant trade deficit would not exist, because as their economy grew the prices of their goods would have appreciated as well.

Secondarily Chinese businesses are heavily in debt to US banks. These same businesses are the ones importing the goods their government wants to put tariffs on. How will they pay their debts back if they cannot make enough income on the goods they are selling?
  • #18,187
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:54am Apr 4, 2018 7:54am
I think we may have a big movement to the high of the daily range.
Buy 1.2297
SL1.2269
TP 1.2449

I will set a chart asap
  • #18,188
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:56am Apr 4, 2018 7:56am
Quoting 4experience
I think we may have a big movement to the high of the daily range. Buy 1.2297 SL1.2269 TP 1.2449 I will set a chart asap
i doubt it since 1.231 is holding it down

it can't even get to 1.233 or the stronger resistance at 1.235
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #18,189
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:59am Apr 4, 2018 7:59am
Quoting 4experience
I think we may have a big movement to the high of the daily range. Buy 1.2297 SL1.2269 TP 1.2449 I will set a chart asap

TF H4
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  • #18,190
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:02am Apr 4, 2018 8:02am
TF D
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  • #18,191
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:08am Apr 4, 2018 8:08am
1.231 SHOULD be strong resistance (support) for the BEAR/SHORT case.

I think it will stay here until the ISM data in about 1 hour. I'd bet it steadies on/above/around 1.2870 but who knows at this point... haha.

I think this judgement is also shaped by the fact that it has not really moved all that much for the past what, 20 trading days? haha.
  • #18,192
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:12am Apr 4, 2018 8:12am
Quoting Skracor247
{quote} Truth is China needs the US. The last decades of growth have come because of the large trade deficit the US has been running with China. This is a wealth transfer fueled by an artificially weak Yuan. They have been in a trade war with the US for quite some time if you look below the surface. If they had floated their currency a decade ago, when they should have, that giant trade deficit would not exist, because as their economy grew the prices of their goods would have appreciated as well. Secondarily Chinese businesses are heavily in debt...
Had to pop in briefly, very true about the debt situation all around, additionally, China imports an incredible amount of food to feed their populace (they can't let
them all go hungry for too long) otherwise it might begin to look like Venezuela before too long.
good luck ,
regards,
goma
Attached Image
  • #18,193
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:15am Apr 4, 2018 8:15am
Quoting Skracor247
So why no big swing for non-farm??? Anyone? Really great better than expected news for US. Should be major US strength right?
I think the move up was the pre-planned move for the day. There could have been lots of excess dollars that needed exchanged into Euros.
The China Tariff news was the 'excuse' to move those dollars in without anybody being the wiser.

This also explains the low impact of 'high impact' news. They were going to move those dollars into the market at some point today.
They just chose the first one to come along.
  • #18,194
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:16am Apr 4, 2018 8:16am
My quote:
"everything is possible that is why stop loss exists"
  • #18,195
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:25am Apr 4, 2018 8:25am
Quoting 4experience
My quote: "everything is possible that is why stop loss exists"
stop losses can be jumped over though and people are left with a negative balance
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #18,196
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:28am Apr 4, 2018 8:28am
Quoting 4experience
{quote} TF H4 {image}
my idea..
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  • #18,197
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:39am Apr 4, 2018 8:39am
Yes I agree with this resistance.
We have a squeeze enough to break it.
  • #18,198
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:46am Apr 4, 2018 8:46am
TF 5MN
The rocket is ready (...but a crash is possible)
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  • #18,199
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:48am Apr 4, 2018 8:48am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} stop losses can be jumped over though and people are left with a negative balance
If I can get a good enough setup (build enough captial) that is why I'd start using an OTM option hedge.

Can almost proxy it with binary options, but end up paying 10% on gains that are maybe 40% so it is a hefty cost... although if you lose and go negative I'm sure that would not be the feeling... haha
  • #18,200
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:49am Apr 4, 2018 8:49am
Interesting:

Quote
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Wednesday that the U.S. central bank has its short-term interest-rate target in the right place and needn't raise it further.

A perma-dove, but still a voting member: http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx...4EG/index.html
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