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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #39,121
  • Mar 29, 2018 11:18am Mar 29, 2018 11:18am
Done for the day + 64 on 2 trades, a +64 and a BE.

Nice little 3 day run for me.
13 trades
12 Winners/BEs
1 Loser
-----------------------
+417 points
  • #39,122
  • Mar 29, 2018 11:23am Mar 29, 2018 11:23am
Quoting bmdenton23
Done for the day + 64 on 2 trades, a +64 and a BE. Nice little 3 day run for me. 13 trades 12 Winners/BEs 1 Loser ----------------------- +417 points
Well done. Great result.
  • #39,123
  • Mar 29, 2018 12:34pm Mar 29, 2018 12:34pm
Hello fellows,

i just wanted to share this analysis on the YM on a 1597 tick chart.

The D ends to let a nice retracement go...

I am just wondering about the B to C leg which is quite vertical.

Any feedback ?

Thanks.
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  • #39,124
  • Mar 29, 2018 1:36pm Mar 29, 2018 1:36pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
58 points on the 144T {image}
Cool, nice to see. It looks like back to basics? The projection, momentum and depth are visual on your chart now. I just reviewed your first few lessons again today while driving to and from work.

All sounds so simple...
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better
  • #39,125
  • Mar 29, 2018 1:51pm Mar 29, 2018 1:51pm
#1:+5 take out
#2:+83 take out
+88 for the day
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Time is an illusion, timing is an art.
  • #39,126
  • Mar 29, 2018 5:47pm Mar 29, 2018 5:47pm
Quoting pjotter
{quote} Cool, nice to see. It looks like back to basics? The projection, momentum and depth are visual on your chart now. I just reviewed your first few lessons again today while driving to and from work. All sounds so simple...
It really is we just tend to complicate simple process.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #39,127
  • Mar 29, 2018 5:58pm Mar 29, 2018 5:58pm
Quoting Onlinepips
Hey Mr. Pip, I have attached a screenshot and had some questions. I've watched some videos but not all of them yet. I am trying this stuff out and still learning what everything means etc. 1) Middle of screenshot, by keeping the NSL simple, would it be point A, B or C where the expectation/trend actually changes back towards uptrend/NSH? 2) At the end of the screenshot is a test of NSL. If I remember correctly in one of the videos it's a 100% test if the wick touches/goes above the previous LH/HL. Is it still a 100% test, if the wick touches/goes...
Thank you for your patience,

1. Point B is where the expectation fails. You must be able to recognize this point without fail. It is always the previous LH or HL after the NSH or NSL that is the fail point.

2. A test is just that a test. A lower close would constitute a NSH and either a continuation or an expectation failure. This also must be a clear concept as failing to recognize this could have you trading against the expectation at hand. Have a clear cut criteria. Whatever helps you (price must close above or below the tails of the previous NSH or NSL to be considered and new NSH or NSL) something like that. Clear cut and no room for misunderstanding.

3. Prime time is the US Session and the tail end of the European session. That's why I trade from open though noon my time. I want to trade when the market is most liquid when the majority is trading.

I hope this answers your questions and good luck.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #39,128
  • Mar 30, 2018 1:53am Mar 30, 2018 1:53am
AJ
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  • #39,129
  • Edited 6:18am Mar 30, 2018 5:14am | Edited 6:18am
Hi Mr Pip, was reading through the thread and watching the videos and have found a slight problem where there seems to be a bit of a logic jump, other than this tho the vids are great and the livestreams in particular are fantastic.

So, i was reading through the thread and a few guys were saying that when they got a NSH and were waiting for a pullback to go long they seemed to be suggesting that they would be right 70% of the time and vice versa with a NSL, i was thinking that these guys just had a slight misunderstanding, as we know obviously this isn't true or a) trading would be very, very easy and b) someone would have surely noticed this at some point in trading's long past.

So i watched your videos and to be fair this wasn't what you were saying because of how you were doing the calculation, your saying that 'expectations play out 70% of the time' but its clear when you make this calculation that your also adding up the LH and HL.

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In the example above we are adding the NSH and the HL at the 'same time' because we cant know one without the other, therefore, because were adding up two points out of three, 2 divided by 3 = 66%. So its fair enough to round this up to 70%, when you include NSH, NSL, HL and LH in the calculation.

So how many times is a NSH or NSL followed by another NSH or NSL, well, i think its best for traders to do there own due diligence on this one and find out for themselves as everyone will have a 'very slightly' different number, however if you take enough samples you will be able to find out the actual % number. You can do this on any time frame, on any instrument, across any asset class and the number will always be the same to within a few percent either side.

Looking back at your live trades you seemed to be running at around a 70% win rate or so, and having watched a couple of livestreams you did confirm that you have around a 70% win rate, however, you were saying that "this is because expectations play out around 70% of the time", but if you see what i'm saying this doesn't seem to make any sense, its a bit of a jump in logic.
Yes, 'expectations play out 70% of the time' the way you have calculated them, but this doesn't mean that a NSH is followed by another NSH 70% of the time.

Despite this one issue, i''ve really enjoyed everything i've watched so far and its very clear you are a fantastic trader and i'm looking forward to binge watching the livestreams over easter.
  • #39,130
  • Mar 30, 2018 7:32am Mar 30, 2018 7:32am
Happy Easter everyone !
Are you profitable? I am not... yet...
  • #39,131
  • Mar 30, 2018 8:44am Mar 30, 2018 8:44am
Maybe something for next week, who knows..

Happy easter everyone!
Attached Image
"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #39,132
  • Mar 30, 2018 12:17pm Mar 30, 2018 12:17pm
Quoting FFpip
Hi Mr Pip, was reading through the thread and watching the videos and have found a slight problem where there seems to be a bit of a logic jump, other than this tho the vids are great and the livestreams in particular are fantastic. So, i was reading through the thread and a few guys were saying that when they got a NSH and were waiting for a pullback to go long they seemed to be suggesting that they would be right 70% of the time and vice versa with a NSL, i was thinking that these guys just had a slight misunderstanding, as we know obviously this...
Hello and thank you for your comment. Let me clarify the expectations, Form a NSH we get an expectation of a HL and from a NSL we get an expectation of a LH.

From a NSH we expect a HL and then expect a NSH
From a NSL we expect a LH and then expect a NSL these are the four basic expectations.

Now we also know that price does not move in straight lines and sometimes price makes a NSH in the short term order flow which does not take out a previous NSH or NSL. This type of price action we find after expectation failures or in areas of structure an or in consolidating markets. I refer to these as complex corrections and the chart below will help clear things up I hope. In short all expectations should be accounted for with the exception of the complex correction which which its highest or lowest point will count a one ultimate LH or HL depending in which way price is moving.

In the first chart we have the basic expectation I'm talking about as you can see we had 10 in total with one failure. 90% of them played out.

In the second chart I will describe the correction which in this case are all complex but I will detail only two to bring the point home.

As you can see in the second chart the blue lines identify the expected correction as a whole but the pink lines show the complex corrections. The complex correction stays within the main swing and therefore are not considered expectation failures.

You can use this immediate price action to help you time your entries or add to your trade. I do this routinely. Many of these complex corrections have ABCD symmetrical moves. I hope this clears up the matter. If I misunderstood your point or need me to go back and explain it better let me know.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #39,133
  • Mar 30, 2018 2:12pm Mar 30, 2018 2:12pm
Thanks to everyone who replied to my questions.

So with the test there, it was a NSL, followed by a test of that NSL. Mr Pip said it if closed below that, it would be a NSH... but wouldn't that be a NSL, not a NSH?
Here's a direct link to the image to save scrolling back
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=2738837&d=1522261724

Also glad you pointed out for the close must be further than the previous NSH/NSL tails for it to count as a NSH/NSL I hadn't known that. I think I have the basic structure and also order flow down except when it comes to the fibonacci and the 1:1 harmonics which I'm currently learning.

Fibonacci levels in your video of order flow expectation, I counted 6 levels/lines but the actual numbers are turned off. Was wondering what the levels numbes are? I know you mentioned 1.27 and 78.6 and 50% is it?


eg
0.0 start
23.6?
50.0%
0.61.8?
0.78.6
1.27

Cheers!
  • #39,134
  • Mar 30, 2018 3:07pm Mar 30, 2018 3:07pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Hello and thank you for your comment. Let me clarify the expectations, Form a NSH we get an expectation of a HL and from a NSL we get an expectation of a LH. From a NSH we expect a HL and then expect a NSH From a NSL we expect a LH and then expect a NSL these are the four basic expectations. Now we also know that price does not move in straight lines and sometimes price makes a NSH in the short term order flow which does not take out a previous NSH or NSL. This type of price action we find after expectation failures or in areas of structure...
Hi Mr Pip, thank you for your detailed reply,

Just so i'm clear , on your second chart you labelled point number 9 as a LH although it hasn't been confirmed yet by a NSL below point 8.
So we have an expectation of a LH or HL first Before it has been confirmed.

If we have an expectation of a HL or LH , should we not also label these as expectation failures when they don't work out and add them to the calculation to see how many times expectations play out.

For example, in your second chart if point 9 turns out not to be the LH at that point and price moves slightly higher before going on to push past point 8 and make a NSL, then should we not say that point 9 is an expectation failure.


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So we have an expectation of a HL FIRST then an expectation of a NSH.

I haven't watched all your content yet, but its just i haven't seen you label any HL or LH as failures.
also, with all this in mind what percentage of the time should we expect a NSH in the chart above.

Thanks again for your time.
  • #39,135
  • Mar 30, 2018 3:30pm Mar 30, 2018 3:30pm
Quoting FFpip
{quote} Hi Mr Pip, thank you for your detailed reply, Just so i'm clear , on your second chart you labelled point number 9 as a LH although it hasn't been confirmed yet by a NSL below point 8. So we have an expectation of a LH or HL first Before it has been confirmed. If we have an expectation of a HL or LH , should we not also label these as expectation failures when they don't work out and add them to the calculation to see how many times expectations play out. For example, in your second chart if point 9 turns out not to be the LH at that point...
As I understand it, I would say "there is always more than 70 procent chance of a NSH..."

This is my desktop...
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And I have a red apple for my teacher...

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And for the people who wathc Peppa pig with their kids... LOL(me)
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Are you profitable? I am not... yet...
  • #39,136
  • Mar 30, 2018 5:53pm Mar 30, 2018 5:53pm
Quoting Pjort
{quote} As I understand it, I would say "there is always more than 70 procent chance of a NSH..." This is my desktop... {image} And I have a red apple for my teacher... {image} And for the people who wathc Peppa pig with their kids... LOL(me) {image}
Thank you, i see where your circles were where your expectations for HL or LH were and failed, but to be fair you would also need to include the failed NSL and NSH that followed them, into the calculation because you included the ones that succeeded, just to be consistent.
This would mean there were 10 failures. 27 out of 37 would be 72%. This is good, but it's just one days worth of data, out of interest do you have any longer term data, say at least 100 days, due to changing market conditions.

p.s peppa pig nooooooooo lol, happy easter and i hope mr pip enjoyed his apple.
  • #39,137
  • Mar 30, 2018 9:19pm Mar 30, 2018 9:19pm
Quoting FFpip
{quote} Thank you, i see where your circles were where your expectations for HL or LH were and failed, but to be fair you would also need to include the failed NSL and NSH that followed them, into the calculation because you included the ones that succeeded, just to be consistent. This would mean there were 10 failures. 27 out of 37 would be 72%. This is good, but it's just one days worth of data, out of interest do you have any longer term data, say at least 100 days, due to changing market conditions. p.s peppa pig nooooooooo lol, happy easter...
The apple was great thank you for your comments. I characterized it as a lower high because the information was already there the point on the second chart was to show the complex corrections. In more detail.

At at this point I’m not quite sure what your are trying to say? That I am wrong on the 70% or that the identification of the expection process is being shown in an inconsisten way. I’ll tell you what. Challenge me but posting a chart that falls short of the Statistics. I’m short there might be a handle since nothing in life is absolute. And I will give it a walk through with you. Also please take the time to get through the material on my channel it will help you a lot.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #39,138
  • Mar 30, 2018 9:23pm Mar 30, 2018 9:23pm
Quoting FFpip
{quote} Hi Mr Pip, thank you for your detailed reply, Just so i'm clear , on your second chart you labelled point number 9 as a LH although it hasn't been confirmed yet by a NSL below point 8. So we have an expectation of a LH or HL first Before it has been confirmed. If we have an expectation of a HL or LH , should we not also label these as expectation failures when they don't work out and add them to the calculation to see how many times expectations play out. For example, in your second chart if point 9 turns out not to be the LH at that point...
All expectation are ahead of time before price action achieves them. Our expectations are a forecast of that should happen towards the right side of the chart. We are forecasting the expected future path of price.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #39,139
  • Mar 31, 2018 7:31am Mar 31, 2018 7:31am
Quoting FFpip
{quote} Thank you, i see where your circles were where your expectations for HL or LH were and failed, but to be fair you would also need to include the failed NSL and NSH that followed them, into the calculation because you included the ones that succeeded, just to be consistent. This would mean there were 10 failures. 27 out of 37 would be 72%. This is good, but it's just one days worth of data, out of interest do you have any longer term data, say at least 100 days, due to changing market conditions. p.s peppa pig nooooooooo lol, happy easter...
I agree with the way you see and interpret the expectation. This comes in pairs. It is like describing a cat and saying a cat has a head only without mentionning anything about its tail. My own observation says the expectation when measured in taking into account both sides of the coin oscillates between 40-60% with an average of 50% on the longer term.

However, i think it is not as important as much as what people usually think, you could achieve the same effect using a moving average or VWAP. What counts is your interpretation of strength vs weakness when price moves between structure or hits a key level and what is price trying to achieve in relation to what has transpired before.

So far, i have noticed that many are inconsistent in how they identify their swings or anchor legs and include these errors in their stats using at a subconscious level confirmation bias (The tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses). In that sense, it is difficult to have an objective discussion about certain aspects of this method.
  • #39,140
  • Mar 31, 2018 8:54am Mar 31, 2018 8:54am
There was a PDF file someone made of a thread summary. Didn't have structure stuff labelled in it but did have the BAT pattern and ABCD stuff in it, it showed the fibonacci levels. The order flow expectation youtube video also showed the levels as well, briefly when the fibonaci edit screen came up for a second but those only went up to 100.
Anyways...I think these are the levels for fibonacci usage?
0.0%
38.20%
50.00%
61.80%
78.60%
100.00%
127.2%
138.2%
161.80%
200.0%

Separate question:
I have attached an image to see if I'm placing the "HL" correctly or incorrectly. There was a expectation change to NSH, so between the previous LH and the now NSH, I need to place a HL. I've drawn it at Point C, but I realised it may actually be at Point D. Because it's the Highest LH and the Lowest HL when drawing them?

On top of that it must be part of the main swing? Question 2 assuming the NSL is valid at Point J, it may not be if I drew it wrong, but for arguments sake so I'm getting this, if that is a NSL, does the LH go at Point M where I drew it off the main swing, or at point Z?

Cheers!
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