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EURUSD only

  • #17,761
  • Mar 29, 2018 12:31am Mar 29, 2018 12:31am
My Intraday Outlook.
(ahead London)

EUR/USD hit some pivot support zone... possible bounce.

Intraday resistance:
- 1.2350 psycho level + TL
- 1.2371-73 (Monthly+Weekly_Mids)
Intraday support:
- 1.2311 (Monthly_Pivot)
- 1.2296

My Intraday Trading:
Bought 2315 -> 2350

Have a good trading day, you all!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZHART1.png Size: 29 KB
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  • #17,762
  • Mar 29, 2018 12:43am Mar 29, 2018 12:43am
Quoting 4experience
Long 1.23013 SL 1.22974 TP 1.23329 {image}
TP REACHED
  • #17,763
  • Mar 29, 2018 1:39am Mar 29, 2018 1:39am
...https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post10917485
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4 czw.png Size: 59 KB
  • #17,764
  • Mar 29, 2018 1:58am Mar 29, 2018 1:58am
Fundamental Alert!!! Lol.

Today there is still going to be alot of dollar buying as the big boys are still balancing their portfolios. Apparently euro selling will continue.

There is also big options expiring today across major USD pairs which will impact the drop.
  • #17,765
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:01am Mar 29, 2018 2:01am
Quoting TudorIoan
My Intraday Outlook. (ahead London) EUR/USD hit some pivot support zone... possible bounce. My Intraday Trading: Bought 2315 -> 2350 Have a good trading day, you all! {image}
Gee, whatta fake little bull trend, aborted long ...sold 2311 ...go, bears!
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  • #17,766
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:09am Mar 29, 2018 2:09am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
New Pending Order Buy Limit: 1.2323 SL: 25 pips TP: Open for now.. Stay Green
Trade still running.. SL was scratched but survived with 1.6 pips.. Will close manually if I see more bear pressure on M15 candles at that level.. Let's see what this day brings.. Good luck to all..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #17,767
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:15am Mar 29, 2018 2:15am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Trade still running.. SL was scratched but survived with 1.6 pips.. Will close manually if I see more bear pressure on M15 candles at that level.. Let's see what this day brings.. Good luck to all.. Stay Green
Now you got me tangled ...so you say bulls still in the game?
Member
  • #17,768
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:31am Mar 29, 2018 2:31am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Now you got me tangled ...so you say bulls still in the game?
I see very slow development of bull power.. especially right after NY close they started the little rally, that you called fake. In my thinking there is a chance of shifting today. If you look at the chart below you will immediately see my logic. I didn't pick 1.2323 as a buy level for nonsense reasons. But I admit I could have waited for NY session to close even (stupid me) I had mentioned that I will buy after NY close. Anyways..

The crux of today is:

  1. Will price go back above 100 EMA? (Green MA on chart) or....
  2. Can price stay above mofu support line? (Thick Green Trendline)
  3. Additionally: Can price stay above Red Trendline? (Lower edge of triangle)

Time will show...

Stay Green

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H4-Oulook.png Size: 48 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #17,769
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:31am Mar 29, 2018 2:31am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Now you got me tangled ...so you say bulls still in the game?
I'd expect a bit of a bounce here..lots of reasons buyers will be getting involved again at this level but I'll sit in my shorts and look to reload if it reaches an area where I'm prepared to do business
  • #17,770
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:34am Mar 29, 2018 2:34am
hi all, two of three untested open prices was tested. See blue arrows in my picture. / I send this also when price was pretty high , around 1.2414/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 115 KB
  • #17,771
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:36am Mar 29, 2018 2:36am
Quoting FXClarity
{quote} Yeah an obvious take profit zone mate...I'd expect some chop around here but I'd be flabbergasted if it shot up to new highs..its clipped this line a lot of times now and demand must be wearing a little thin.
Why am I expecting chop? Image below - we are back into demand areas and coiling that trendline that has been so relevant in every bounce this quarter.

But let me be clear - this pair is going under 1.20 and I will continue to capitalise on trading that direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.proH1.png Size: 96 KB
  • #17,772
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:39am Mar 29, 2018 2:39am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} I see very slow development of bull power.. especially right after NY close they started the little rally, that you called fake. In my thinking there is a chance of shifting today. If you look at the chart below you will immediately see my logic. I didn't pick 1.2323 as a buy level for nonsense reasons. But I admit I could have waited for NY session to close even (stupid me) I had mentioned that I will buy after NY close. Anyways.. The crux of today is: Will price go back above 100 EMA? (Green MA on chart) or.... Can price stay above mofu...
Nice chart. Well argumented. Thanks!

NY sess?! Ok, I'd wait this week and this month and this 'quarterly window dressing' to end ...because it looks like this period favors the USD
Anyways, euro bull still in the game today ...we'll see

Quoting FXClarity
{quote} I'd expect a bit of a bounce here..lots of reasons buyers will be getting involved again at this level but I'll sit in my shorts and look to reload if it reaches an area where I'm prepared to do business
Sit on shorts and expecting bounce in the same time?

edit: + 'Fed mistakes', stocks mess...
Member
  • #17,773
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:42am Mar 29, 2018 2:42am
my view

we are in short mode

I prefer bounce of green line, but Im not sure...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.M30.png Size: 32 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #17,774
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:44am Mar 29, 2018 2:44am
Dang, USD very strong right now vs. EUR and GBP.
  • #17,775
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:44am Mar 29, 2018 2:44am
The dollar buying is not going to stop today and yesterdays gdp did it no favours.

If your looking to trade technically I would advise you wait until monday when the market has calmed down because days like this can cause people to lose money. For example yesterday on the 1hr chart the 9am candle presented a false buy entry so please be careful.

I believe we will see eur buying come monday.
  • #17,776
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:48am Mar 29, 2018 2:48am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Nice chart. Well argumented. Thanks! NY sess?! Ok, I'd wait this week and this month and this 'quarterly window dressing' to end ...because it looks like this period favors the USD Anyways, euro bull still in the game today ...we'll see {quote} Sit on shorts and expecting bounce in the same time? edit: + 'Fed mistakes', stocks mess...
Thanks bro.. so, regarding to my broker's numbers.. I see: 1.2280 level as deepest touch level to the red triangle we are in. Give it some 10 pips deviation and we get 1.2270 as potential bounce level for today. Therefore Stops should be at this level for survival of any longs. (Assuming the triangle will hold price for today).. again.. time will show..

Edit: If I take the Green mofu line as bounce level, then lowest limit price for today would be: 1.2292

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #17,777
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:49am Mar 29, 2018 2:49am
Quoting TudorIoan
My Intraday Outlook. (ahead London) EUR/USD hit some pivot support zone... possible bounce. Intraday resistance: - 1.2350 psycho level + TL - 1.2371-73 (Monthly+Weekly_Mids) Intraday support: - 1.2311 (Monthly_Pivot) - 1.2296 My Intraday Trading: Bought 2315 -> 2350 Have a good trading day, you all! {image}
How did you get 1.2296? That was quite accurate.
  • #17,778
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:50am Mar 29, 2018 2:50am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Nice chart. Well argumented. Thanks! NY sess?! Ok, I'd wait this week and this month and this 'quarterly window dressing' to end ...because it looks like this period favors the USD Anyways, euro bull still in the game today ...we'll see {quote} Sit on shorts and expecting bounce in the same time?
Oh hell yes - As you know I'm short from much higher and this pair has got at least 300 pips of downside in it yet - I'd be mad to close out shorts here.

If I close out shorts I have to get into the sheep pen and worry about where to get back in short again; into a market that's headed down - bugger that.

I covered (yesterday) and right here isn't an area for me to add in further just yet.

Think of it like being long in bitcoin in Q2 last year..you'd know it would retrace but know its going a lot higher..your options are

 

  1. Close trade and risk missing a bigger pay off in the hope of entering back in on a retrace that may or may not happen
  2. Sit through a retrace in the knowledge that it is just a retrace before the next leg in your direction..

Sometimetimes doing nothing but holding your position is the right thing to do - and to catch bigger moves - that pretty much what you have to do.

  • #17,779
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:51am Mar 29, 2018 2:51am
Thank you Samson85, very sound analysis.
  • #17,780
  • Mar 29, 2018 2:51am Mar 29, 2018 2:51am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Thanks bro.. so, regarding to my broker's numbers.. I see: 1.2280 level as deepest touch level to the red triangle we are in. Give it some 10 pips deviation and we get 1.2270 as potential bounce level for today. Therefore Stops should be at this level for survival of any longs. (Assuming the triangle will hold price for today).. again.. time will show.. Edit: If I take the Green mofu line as bounce level, then lowest limit price for today would be: 1.2292 Stay Green
Makes sense. Many thanks, bro!
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