Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

ignore what people say, just keep on doing the good work

Thanks.

This should be a platform to support strategies or challenge them to reach the best profitable trades.

Page 5 on this thread shows people sharing good ideas about CTA's. This is good to see because sharing concepts will only enhance.

Seeing people waste time to criticise people personally shows there are people here wanting to be playground bullies and not contribute to trade ideas.

Indeed. Thank you

Nice work dude, ignore the haters.

Do you like green eggs and spam? I do not like them Scam-I-am. (with apologies to Dr Seuss)

Seriously, there is so much nonsense written on this forum.

The supermarket sells eggs. Does that mean that they are scamming me? I have a choice whether to buy them or not. Or I can go to another store and buy a different brand of eggs, or at a better price.

A news service is what it is. It's neither good nor bad. It's simply provides news. If the service is useful to you, then you can choose to pay for it. If it's not helpful to your trading method, or you think it's too expensive for what it delivers, then nobody's forcing you to subscribe. For goodness sake, it's YOUR decision. Man up, and show some gumption.

Now I suppose I'll be accused of "snake oiling". Anybody who believes that I sell forex related products, or gain any kind of financial benefit from posting my opinions on Forex Factory, is a bloody fool, a paranoid conspiracy theorist. For goodness sake, I'm just an amateur trader, and no more a salesman than you are. You think I'm "selling the dream", let me simply say that the statistics show that in all likelihood YOU, the reader, will fail as a trader. The vast majority don't have the knowledge, the experience, the capital, or the personal qualities necessary to ever succeed at this game. Nonetheless:

You want to play with forex, you want to speculate on an unknown outcome, ..... that's YOUR choice.
You want to risk $10, or you want to risk $10,000, ..... that's YOUR choice.
You want to spend your money on EAs, indicators, signals, education, expensive charting software, ..... that's YOUR choice.

If you think the strategy being presented in this thread, or any other thread, is rubbish, well, nobody's forcing you to read it, let alone trade it.
Even better, the OP isn't charging anything for the information that he's providing here. So you don't even have to make a choice whether to buy or not.

My 12 year old niece understands all of this.

The naysayers on this forum are so afraid, so suspicious, so paranoid.

Losers can't accept responsibility for their own decisions. Imprisoned by their egos, they blame brokers, the market, or anybody or anything else, for their own mistakes.

Citi bank just said there is moderate dollar buying and strong eur selling for month end. So traders are balancing there portfolios it seems.

So I am short eur/usd just for today. It rebounded if todays pivot point and also 38.2 fib level (Yes I do technicals also) So solid confluence

We're on the same page. I like to use climax volume into supply/demand or C-liquidity zones (especially on M15) to time my entries. For example, suppose macro/sentiment for a given instrument is down, then I wait for price to diverge with sentiment, i.e. move up into one of those zones, with suitable PA. Then I sell, and hold the trade until I believe that macro/sentiment is no longer a downward driving force, or has been trumped by some other event.

I must get back into some proper trading again soon, I'm really starting to miss it.

I'm really happy to know this as I can see you'e very well respected on here.

So from what I can see you like to trade in and out of risk events. I imagine you like trading cpi, employment and GDP.

M15 is the best lower time frame I feel. 5 min chart is to misleading. A bearish candle on m15 when on a daily high is very powerful no matter the size of the candle lol.

Right now eur/USD is in a tug of war as everyone is releasing their gains for the month but eur/USD hopefully will gradually go down

Fair to say the dollar decline was right from my fundamental analysis people.

The month end flows never fail and you can make serious pips on them Of course I got the info from ransqauwk

Fundamental Alert!!! Lol.

Today there is still going to be alot of dollar buying as the big boys are still balancing their portfolios. Apparently euro selling will continue.

There is also big options expiring today across major USD pairs which will impact the drop.

I am already up close 20 pips on eur/usd shorting.

We do have some german data out that could impact it, but I very doubt it unless its negative.

I hesitated a moment on the sell and missed a nice 30 pips down. Let’s see is 1.23 holds, which I highly doubt it will.

[quote=Sean76710;10919260]{quote} I hesitated a moment on the sell and missed a nice 30 pips down. Let’s see is 1.23 holds, which I highly doubt it will.[/quo

Lol your making enough pips dont be greedy

I'm only taking the trade because of the options expiry, but I haven't heard ransquqwk say a major bank is indicating more dollar selling as I am hoping it will last till month end as the flows normally do. The analyst did tell me that all is still pointing to dollar demand.

Hope that helps.

Morgan Stanley have suggested this trade ppl

@Samson85, i trade the same way as you do . Previously i just used to trade technicals, but the day I was introduced to fundamentals my trading improved ten folds. I opened up a small live account and only place trades that are based on fundamental/sentiment analysis first and then technical analysis to find my entry/exit levels

Glad to know you have crossed over.

I think technicals are very important but fundamentals will always let you know what truly is going to happen in a trade. Did you manage to take advantage of the usd strength these last 3 days?

I could not get a proper setup that I usually look for. Been banking pips on NZD shorts though

Hi all,
Im always a silent around these forums, however i decided to join after being interested in your thread.

Let me first say Great Work!
A little 'bout me- Been in the financial markets both local and international for more than 20 years. Served as desk manager ( dealer_) and served as Trader

I CAN ONLY ADVICE YOU ALL TRADERS

Hi all,
Im always a silent around these forums, however i decided to join after being interested in your thread.

Let me first say Great Work!
A little 'bout me- Been in the financial markets both local and international for more than 20 years. Served as desk manager ( dealer_) and served as Trader

I CAN ONLY ADVICE ALL TRADERS To BALANCE YOUR EQUATION RIGHT. YOU NEED TO BE BOTH TECHNICALLY AND FUNDAMENTALLY SAVVY. and YOUR EAR has to always be on the squawk. bottom line you need to know what the hell is going on and how it affects the market you are trading.
Every Market reacts different to fundamental data, news releases, and now a days politics. TRUMP is the boss.. swings the flow as he speaks.

Take GOLD reaction to latest FOMC Rates.. Who would have expected it.. Price and move was factored in long ago before the release. and look how price went up instead of tanking. Economist and analyst on TV haven't a clue, but top traders know that one missing piece of the puzzle would be the inflationary rate.
so as it turn out, every market has a formula of news effect vs inflation
FOR GOLD FOMC STATEMENT.. and you need to know this stuff to balance your market equation.

FOMC RATE HIKE with DOVISH Outlook into next 9 months expect investors to run from GOLD TO CASH....
FOMC RATE HIKE with DOVISH Outlook into next 9 months With Inflationary rate rising- Expect the Opposite Investors to Stay in gold and update Upper Range Targets. NOW GOLD LOOKING AT 1320 to 1484 with 1370 1380 as possible mid range.

and thats how we balance things. YOU NEED TO KNOW every ECONO REPORT EFFECT EQUATION ON YOUR MARKET> never forget that INFLATION rate is very important when you are trading.

NOW you say but gold went up and now tanked... they sold the top. at 1350.
I say Reloading the guns. and once you understand the forces behind the market you will know what i mean.
Here is more explanation... as to what happens.
THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS:
PAPER ( BIG MONEY
LOCAL TRADERS / DEALERS
OTHERS
RETAIL
BIG MONEY knows the market and have employed top analysts economist and they run economy numbers in house. in fact do better job than the govt.
So the outcome of all reports is known way a head of time to all these mongols. but not you and me.
Local and others Have little advantage being close to big money tools and ears on the market NETWORKED . they hear and see more info than retail
Local traders can read smart money very well. Retail can't
Accumulation phase starts with smart money (paper) intent to either buy or sell for the next 3 months once accumulation phase is done, they wait on the news release to bring the local and retail. FUEL THE MOVE on retail back... in the slaughter house against local and dealers filling stops and orders.

What I just said above simply means BALANCE your MARKET EQUATION WITH LITTLE FUNDAMENTALS



One point to make here. Market is DYNAMIC, that means market and day trading 20 years ago isn't as trading now, due to BOT and AUTOMATION.
Faster flow. Most Top Traders / Dealers Adjusted to the new dynamics. its retail that still stock in limbo choosing side ( fundamental vs. technical_)

Fab read and much appreciated.

The last Fomc was very very tricky. Although everything he said was good and they added an extra hike in 2019, traders were looking for that extra hike to be in 2018 as it would be guaranteed to happen and saying they will add an extra one in 2019 is not guaranteed because things can change. The market took there not being 4 rate hikes this year as negative as we already knew 3 were guaranteed and that's why dollar lost strength.

Even big banks got it wrong that week. For example Barclays went short nzd/USD hoping 4 hikes were coming from Fomc and rbnz would be dovish on their interest rate minutes statement. Neither happened and the bad in fact gained strengt.

Great thread, and really enjoyed it so far. Thank you for starting it and looking forward to more engaging discussions.

Just started on Ray Dalio's Principles and was captivated by his deep understanding of how economies, finance and the global market works. And now, chancing upon this thread (after taking a long break from trading) has helped me in piecing the puzzle together. Cannot help but agree on how fundamentals and sentiments shape and move the markets.

I'm keen to also subscribe to ransquawk but how central is this to picking up fundamental ideas? Is forexlive sufficient for a start?