Diversified Trend Trading Approach

The Fund is still going...although it did have a name change in August 2016 and it also ramped up its management fee from 1:20 to 1.5: 20.

MAR is pretty ordinary mate....but what stands out in the professional game is not the performance metrics per se....but the level of correlation it has with the 60:40 (stock/bond) mob. That seems to speak louder than MAR in the allocation space.





Stridsman had a stint at Rotella :-)

Success is Overvalued. Avoiding Failure Matters More.

As a risk manager....sometimes it pays to invert the mind. We often hear the call from motivational guru's to "focus on success"...but that can leave us very exposed to failure....so what have the Stoic philosophers taught us....and can it help make us a bit more robust :-) Enjoy C

The Crucial Thinking Skill Nobody Ever Taught You

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Provides a good segue for this.

To be a “complete” trader, know how to play “successful” as well as “fail” setups regardless of trend ...

Taking Risk to a New Level

What is interesting in this video is that the guy guiding the truck driver has no idea about where the risk is actually is...yet he successfully did his job...so maybe he was right

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Disliked

The biggest risk is not taking any risk... In a world that changing really quickly, the only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is not taking risks.

Mark Zuckenberg

Hehehe. What was so important about the front? My gut churned when he reversed :-)

Taking Darwinism to the next level.

An apt song for the moment :-)

hahah, he is showing beauty of his balance and brain.

Interesting article from Winton

Also GBP CAD was almost closed, but made a new high, so all will change.... SL will widen



USD TRY still flying:



GBP SEK



USD CHN looks promising:



COCOA new highs:



Copper soon

It's marginal....but I will probably be having a play at EURAUD soon. Not much else happening in my universe.

Almost at 2.5 x R......I think I can .......I think I can :-)

I was just filled. 30 pips left in theoretical tank of daily range. ADR offset was not reset from older Donchian.

Last try was not good. And also reverter lost not long ago.

There she blows me hearties. Strap yourself in R

Mental Models: How to Train Your Brain to Think in New Ways

Enjoy

C

US stock market rallied on Monday which caused reversals in AUD to which I was exposed on GBP AUD, AUD JPY, EUR AUD and AUD NZD....

I will remove AUD NZD from the portfolio since too much AUD is there.

Good run for GBP AUD


EUR AUD there and back again


USD weakness bet in USD SGD and USD MXN:



Trade tariffs talks create such volatility on USD CHN:

Different time scale altogether... months are nothing....

Yep mate. Because we are dealing with such a fine edge where performance returns are a consequence of time, trade frequency and compounding...... and due to the fact that it is almost impossible to distinguish between a random outcome and a non-random one.......then the only way to assess performance is via very long term measures....whether it be individual trading systems or the performance returns of the Fund managers etc. .

That is one of the main reasons why long range back-tests across a very large data set is essential in this game to identify what might be a fine edge versus what is simply the result of random aggregation. Without it you are a ship without a rudder that drifts aimlessly between systems year after year.



In complex systems that are non-stationery moving feasts....the hardest questions to answer are frequently naively interpreted by the human condition as the simplest.........eg........Is the following equity curve a result of a random....or non-random price series?



The only way to make an informed decision is through the utilization of a benchmark that has non-random components in it (eg. below).



Not so easy is it? :-)

For example I know that curve B has 2% drift and curve A is totally random....as I generated curve A from random data and applied a 2% drift to this random data in curve B.....but without a scale of reference such as time and trade frequency in your data series....you are left rudderless and aimless shooting for random unicorns...probably like many of us here on this forum.

Update

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