AUD/USD

Just until tomorrow before Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
It's very likely to go all the way up to 0.8125 zone, range a little bit up there, and then bearish all the way down do 0.7330 possibly 0.7150 zone...
Australia needs a weaker dollar. It should turn the year ranging low.

Weak momentum on the way up, extreme on the way down, also the CFTC report show a lot of selling pressure on the USD in general, plus longs outweigh shorts.

Very nice chart Baaldeagle, thank you for sharing.

Westpac forecast for the Australian dollar

The weakness of the US dollar after the meeting of the Federal Committee on open market operations of the US Federal Reserve provided support to the pair AUDUSD, which it certainly needed, according to Sean Callow, a market research analyst in Westpac. "Ahead of the announcement of the Fed's decision, the pair traded at a fresh 3-month low of about 0.7675. Prices for basic commodities produced in Australia extended its losses, and Australian market-based basket dropped 4.3% this month, plunging to the lowest level since the end of November.

While AUDUSD was near 0.7625, yield differentials have continued to evolve against the Australian dollar, leaving the short-term fair value of the currency below 0.75. Trade tensions, initiated by the government of the United States still persist, and the Group of twenty (G20) was forced to admit its impotence to ensure the fulfillment of accepted obligations to prevent the spread of protectionism. Trump's anti-China trade measures will only ignite the flames of a trade war. But there is also positive news: Australia continues to create new jobs. In the near future we expect the soft tone of the US dollar will remain – probably, this circumstance will be enough for AUDUSD to trade around 0.77" – said the expert.

I agree!!! short tern long view with an long term bearish view. same targets

The pair will likely to continue with correction movements around 0.77 level, upside potential is limited.

I am waiting for the Bearish market

can aussie defend 0.76758 ?

i think best defend aussie 0.7650 - 0.7630 fresh suport D1

I have target at .7650

The pair failed to sustain above 0.77 level, support zone around 0.7640/50 and on the upside 0.77 level act as important resistance.

My view

The immediate sentiment is bearish. But a strong bullish recovery is just around the corner. Beginning probably in the middle of next week.
Looking at “Momentum” indicator, there are bullish divergence formations on several timeframes (1H and 4H in particular).

Not an advice!
Just my view!

She's below the 200 moving average on every time frame. The monthly and weekly channels loosely resemble a potential bear flag. AUDUSD can be extremely weak even when the dollar is bearish. Even so, trendline and support zone beneath DXY that is accumulating at the bottom of a channel. We'll see what news brings next week.

But it's the market and none of these may matter. I plan on getting in and riding the trend whichever way it goes.

this kind of divergence is unfortunately not reliable. just look back at chart time. how many times did it fail.

We all see things in different ways mate. This is why some of us win, while some of us lose.
I never rely on a single indicator when I make my assumptions and I have made some good forecasts in the past.

In this particular case I see a strong support line on several timeframes. However this support line can quickly become a resistance line. But in combination with the bullish divergence formations and some fundamental analysis, this is what I came up with.

And again that’s not an advice. It is only my view which of course may be totally wrong.

If you look on Daily and Weekly, you will see that it is on an ascending trend line and meeting the support level. On a whole, we failed to break past 0.81 and this may become a bear flag set up for further lows.

0.7700
0.7715
0.7740

These targets are valid as long as the price stays above S/R level 0.7640

Good luck

I see potentially reaching 0.7985 area, as a Fib 76% to 23% (Dec 8 to Jan 27) seems to be working.
Also, there's a chance to reach the top of a falling channel at 0.7850-0.7875 and bounce back. This is a very important area to look at. If it breaks through it's not gonna stop before 0.7985 zone.

There's also the possibility of the top of another falling channel (TBC) be at 0.78, which matches with 61% FIB short term.

First target HIT.

Let’s see where do we go from here. This area has been rejected before. Let’s see if it holds this time around.

Average decline has been approx 8% over the past two years. We're not far off this at the moment, one final spike down will take us there, right into the zone of support and long term trendline too. Watching closely to further accumulate long term positions.