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The Strength of USD

  • #141
  • Mar 10, 2018 6:11am Mar 10, 2018 6:11am
Seems like the dollar is weak from this original post.
  • #142
  • Mar 10, 2018 7:39am Mar 10, 2018 7:39am
Quoting AstroEdge
Seems like the dollar is weak from this original post.
The original post was written 10 months ago ... a lot have changed since then ...

To know where I stand at the moment, take a look at my open positions in the accompanying TE ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #143
  • Mar 13, 2018 5:12am Mar 13, 2018 5:12am
Uncertain about the effect of the upcoming US CPI? ... No problem, just put a straddling stop-order ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: B5377577-D9E8-4C27-A97C-36BC86311907.jpeg Size: 374 KB
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #144
  • Mar 13, 2018 11:02am Mar 13, 2018 11:02am
Quoting 4for4
Uncertain about the effect of the upcoming US CPI? ... No problem, just put a straddling stop-order ... {image}
+55 pips on the Buy-Stop ... (see the accompanying TE)
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #145
  • Mar 13, 2018 3:57pm Mar 13, 2018 3:57pm
eurusd will definetly bounce back in a few days. I have been following it up for a period of weeks now.
  • #146
  • Mar 13, 2018 8:02pm Mar 13, 2018 8:02pm
Quoting firefirefire
eurusd will definetly bounce back in a few days. I have been following it up for a period of weeks now.
If we start from Feb15 of the daily EUR chart, we can see that the Downward Wave 1 of Elliott Wave has been formed on the Feb28. So at the moment, the market is forming Wave 2 ...
Two things could happen then: (1) the market is closed above Feb15 which means the downward momentum is no longer valid, or (2) the market penetrate Feb28 which means the continuing Wave 3 begins ...
Those two levels are the levels I’m currently watching before putting on a trade on EUR ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 29453C82-147C-4D05-AFC7-A58FECD7FCAA.jpeg Size: 345 KB
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #147
  • Mar 13, 2018 11:21pm Mar 13, 2018 11:21pm
Quoting 4for4
If statistically 90% of traders eventually fail, the remaining 10% must have been doing something “different” from what the textbooks say ... A trader should be like a “specialist” where s/he has a general knowledge about market behaviors, but only trade a specific market condition. Those “specialists” are usually waiting for extreme or rare cases before trading, and some are specialized in playing “failed” setups ... Knowing how the market should react when a setup is triggered is learnable, finding out when it’s about to fail takes a lot...
Identifying setups is a “textbook-based” activity which should be learned and understood before making our first live trade ...
Although it’s as dynamic as the market itself, but a setup can be categorized as “successful” or “unsuccessful” through our own definition. After taking a lot of samples and statistize them, we can then conclude which side is worth playing and how ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #148
  • Edited Mar 15, 2018 8:21pm Mar 14, 2018 9:55pm | Edited Mar 15, 2018 8:21pm
Since Mar09, the CAD moved higher ...
I will consider this upward movement to be “successful” if it can close above Mar05 or penetrate 1.3005. From the chart we can see that both cases haven’t happened yet as the close on Mar13 was just a shy below the Mar05 ...
Is this a good opportunity to play a “fail-setup”? ... Why not just try by putting a Sell-Stop order and cancel it if one of the above mentioned cases happens ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D9C4B9EF-EBB7-4DE5-940C-7B4D9D1E9F59.jpeg Size: 382 KB
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #149
  • Mar 15, 2018 9:15am Mar 15, 2018 9:15am
Quoting 4for4
Since Mar09, the CAD moved higher ... I will consider this upward movement to be “successful” if it can close above Mar05 or penetrate 1.3000. From the chart we can see that both cases haven’t happened yet as the close on Mar13 was just a shy below the Mar05 ... Is this a good opportunity to play a “fail-setup”? ... Why not just try by putting a Sell-Stop order and cancel it if one of the above mentioned cases happens ... {image}
Surprise, surprise, surprise ... It’s the Buy-Stop that got executed ...
(see the accompanying TE)
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #150
  • Mar 15, 2018 11:00am Mar 15, 2018 11:00am
Quoting 4for4
{quote} Surprise, surprise, surprise ... It’s the Buy-Stop that got executed ... (see the accompanying TE)
+55 pips ... (see the accompanying TE)
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #151
  • Edited Mar 16, 2018 2:28am Mar 15, 2018 8:43pm | Edited Mar 16, 2018 2:28am
CAD is making Wave-5 which was started on 01Feb ...
Waiting until it makes a peak before deciding anything ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #152
  • Mar 16, 2018 3:08am Mar 16, 2018 3:08am
A downward Elliott Wave was started in AUD on Feb15, but it failed when the closing on Mar12 passed its Wave-2 (Feb26) ...
Will yesterday’s downward movement mark a new downward Elliott Wave? Or, will it rebound pass Mar14 as it’s making Wave-3 of an upward Elliott Wave? ...
Waiting to see where this market will be closed today before making a decision ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9CCE9CBC-BABA-475D-A30E-C2C23A7389FF.jpeg Size: 347 KB
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #153
  • Mar 16, 2018 10:58pm Mar 16, 2018 10:58pm
Quoting 4for4
A downward Elliott Wave was started in AUD on Feb15, but it failed when the closing on Mar12 passed its Wave-2 (Feb26) ... Will yesterday’s downward movement mark a new downward Elliott Wave? Or, will it rebound pass Mar14 as it’s making Wave-3 of an upward Elliott Wave? ... Waiting to see where this market will be closed today before making a decision ... {image}
A new downward Elliott Wave was started ...
Marking Mar14 as the starting point, and currently forming Wave-1 ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 296D6C75-E04F-4855-B218-93D3F8025159.jpeg Size: 346 KB
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #154
  • Mar 20, 2018 7:15pm Mar 20, 2018 7:15pm
Another new downward Elliott Wave was started in NZD ... Marking Mar14 as the starting point ...
Will it be a successful setup or a fail one? - Waiting for it to form Wave-1 and Wave-2 ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #155
  • Mar 20, 2018 11:15pm Mar 20, 2018 11:15pm
Just found out that this demo account might be terminated in 30 days ...
Currently looking for a permanent demo account to accompany this thread ... any suggestion?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #156
  • Mar 21, 2018 7:45pm Mar 21, 2018 7:45pm
Quoting 4for4
CAD is making Wave-5 which was started on 01Feb ... Waiting until it makes a peak before deciding anything ... {image}
Wave-5 was formed ... abc correction coming in?
- Waiting for CAD to be closed below Mar09 ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: B47FDBA3-027B-4906-8475-0A3BE5D3041A.jpeg Size: 347 KB
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #157
  • Mar 21, 2018 7:48pm Mar 21, 2018 7:48pm
Quoting 4for4
{quote} A new downward Elliott Wave was started ... Marking Mar14 as the starting point, and currently forming Wave-1 ... {image}
Wave-1 was formed ... Let’s see where Wave-2 will be formed ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: B978332D-E6FA-49CB-A4DC-7B9510D8B188.jpeg Size: 351 KB
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #158
  • Mar 22, 2018 8:38pm Mar 22, 2018 8:38pm
Quoting 4for4
Another new downward Elliott Wave was started in NZD ... Marking Mar14 as the starting point ... Will it be a successful setup or a fail one? - Waiting for it to form Wave-1 and Wave-2 ... {image}
Will the current upward momentum which was started on Mar20 “fail” the identified EWP? ...
Let’s just put in a stop-order at previous peak ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4726BF62-47C0-4ECA-93D1-97E19D704304.jpeg Size: 373 KB
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #159
  • Edited 7:50pm Mar 23, 2018 12:50am | Edited 7:50pm
When testing out a strategy, go for pip-gain/loss ...
Once we have a strategy that statistically gives us a “certain” average pips monthly, all we need to do is play a certain number of lot-size to get a monthly monetary value we need ... (of course it should be backed up by a proper account size)
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #160
  • Edited Mar 27, 2018 2:51am Mar 26, 2018 10:57pm | Edited Mar 27, 2018 2:51am
After looking at several TE of newbies and “experienced” traders, I think the most common mistake is that they didn’t have SL in place ... Some experienced 100% drawdown in just a few trades (martingaling?) after experiencing a good run-up ...
And another common mistake is having too many open trades at the same time ...

Trading should be like fishing ... It’s not necessary to catch every fish that swims by in order to be successful. In fact, it’s only necessary to catch few that bite ... Be patient and be consistent ...

Ongoing market trend is identifiable, but a shift of momentum is not ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
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