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  • #16,141
  • Mar 16, 2018 12:41pm Mar 16, 2018 12:41pm
Not too much can be done while travelling, but Not too bad as a Friday_
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The arriving better than the arrival, the journey has just started
  • #16,142
  • Mar 16, 2018 12:52pm Mar 16, 2018 12:52pm
Weekly Focus: Fed set to hike amid trade war risks
16-03-2018

Market movers ahead - Danske Bank

Markets are still focusing on the risk of a full-blown global trade war , as US President Donald Trump is likely to announce protectionist measures against China soon.

We expect the Fed to hike the target range by 25bp at next week's meeting, while sticking to its current signal of three hikes this year.

The EU and UK are likely to agree at next week's EU summit on a transition period lasting until year-end 2020 (deal likely to be announced before). While this is positive, the negotiations on the future relationship are likely to be more complicated.

In the euro area and the US , preliminary PMIs will give us more information about whether or not the phase of increasing growth is over for now. In China , the main number of interest is house prices.

In Scandinavia , the spotlight is on the Norwegian labour market data and Riksbank speeches.

Global macro and market themes

While an all-out trade war is still not our base case, risks remain as long as further trade measures loom.

The USD is likely to be a victim of increased US protectionism.

The global reflation theme has lost some momentum lately but we still expect the Fed to hike next week and to pencil in three hikes for 2019.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #16,143
  • Mar 16, 2018 1:10pm Mar 16, 2018 1:10pm
Quoting szejjel
Hi Mr. Davit, thanks for this awesome thread. I started follow this thread 2 weeks ago, and very usefull. I have completed with one little function the pipsometer indicator, it will show the number of opened trades. And I coded an EA this closes all of trades of the actual pair. I hope it is usefull when you have many trades. Just click on the button and the EA is closing all of them. I hope Mr. Davit doesn't mind I share this 2 little things . Cheers Gabor {file} {file}
Nice little touches. Thanks.

Ben
  • #16,144
  • Mar 16, 2018 1:17pm Mar 16, 2018 1:17pm
H4 EC S. Looking left. Bearish engulfing.

Interesting for next week, PA permitting.
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  • #16,145
  • Mar 16, 2018 1:22pm Mar 16, 2018 1:22pm
Did not take this trade, but instructive to study how looking left helps.
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  • #16,146
  • Mar 16, 2018 8:54pm Mar 16, 2018 8:54pm
Quoting szejjel
Hi Mr. Davit, thanks for this awesome thread. I started follow this thread 2 weeks ago, and very usefull. I have completed with one little function the pipsometer indicator, it will show the number of opened trades. And I coded an EA this closes all of trades of the actual pair. I hope it is usefull when you have many trades. Just click on the button and the EA is closing all of them. I hope Mr. Davit doesn't mind I share this 2 little things . Cheers Gabor {file} {file}
Thank you for your contribution will check it out.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #16,147
  • Mar 16, 2018 9:07pm Mar 16, 2018 9:07pm
My week didn't go as I planned.Wobbled on NU and AU shorts (closed way too early) missed huge opportunities.
I need to forgive myself and try to stick with my trading overall view which was correct I just failed to stick to it.Market didn't move the CAD pairs in a way that I wanted but all is not lost still time left for the month.
Modest gain for the week but nothing worth posting.I am posing this because we all make mistakes and there is always room to improve.
I had 500pips on 1pair and instead of closing I wanted home run and waited until price came back and took almost all profits.It happens and why trading can be challenging.One situation NU AU shorts were correct to hold but another situation was not correct to hold.These are type of decisions that makes trading challenging and forces you to get better at.I have made more in 1 week then entire 3 weeks in a month so money flows in waves...I am sure we all have been in this situations don't beat yourself shake it off and clear your head and tackle new week with fresh opportunities.Be positive and take inspiration from your fellow traders! This makes you not a lesser trader but stronger trader recognizing what others do better in particular circumstances.
To me others making money from my system makes me happy even if I had crappy week.Cheers
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #16,148
  • Mar 16, 2018 9:14pm Mar 16, 2018 9:14pm
Quoting snail69
AU complete 5 Elliot Wave Cycle - +83 {image}
Hi Snail
I have been doing this for years and one thing I know counting EW is very challenging and most traders tackle it in a subjective manner.
Question to you what made you think you are in 5wave completion
From what you posted I didn't see that
thanks
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #16,149
  • Mar 16, 2018 11:52pm Mar 16, 2018 11:52pm
Inserted Video

Nostalghia（1983）/ Andrei Tarkovsky / BWV853

"Sometimes there's so much beauty in the world ... I feel like I can't take it... and my heart is just going to cave in." -Ricky Fitts, American Beauty.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #16,150
  • Mar 17, 2018 4:27am Mar 17, 2018 4:27am
March 16, 2018 4:30pm by Barry Ritholtz
Succinct Summations for the week ending March 16th, 2018
Positives:
1. Jobless claims fell by 4k w/o/w, down from 230k to 226k.
2. Home mortgage applications rose a seasonally adjusted 3% w/o/w.
3. Industrial production rose 1.1% in February.
4. The housing market index still shows optimism, coming in at an index score of 70.
5. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index remains high 56.2, falling by only .6% w/o/w.
Negatives:
1. Retail sales fell 0.1%, missing expectations; Same store sales growth slowed by .9% y/o/y.
2. Producer Price index rose 1% to 2.8% y/o/y
3. Housing starts fell 7% m/o/m, much lower than expected.
4. January Business inventories rose 0.6%. February and March are uncertain due to a decline in sales by 0.2%.
5. Import prices rose .4% m/o/m. Export prices rose .2% m/o/m.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #16,151
  • Edited 5:43am Mar 17, 2018 5:13am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Snail I have been doing this for years and one thing I know counting EW is very challenging and most traders tackle it in a subjective manner. Question to you what made you think you are in 5wave completion From what you posted I didn't see that thanks

Very true Davit. I do not count it per se in advance. It pops at me and then I count length to see whether it is mathematically correct.

Attached is pic of several waves together as I saw them. 2nd is zoomed a bit too see the little EW - yellow

And one pic from February.
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  • #16,152
  • Mar 17, 2018 5:50am Mar 17, 2018 5:50am
I thought I'll have a go on this. Best way to learn is by practicing, right? Went through next week's calendar and this is what I think.

G20 Meetings on Monday and Tuesday so some news flash and certain spikes to be expected.

USD
Wednesday Federal Funds Rate and FOMC. Not wise to trade at least USD pairs on Wednesday. USD is expected to get stronger but I'm not sure how much of this is already priced in and it could spike in every direction. So I would wait after dust settles and make my trading decisions after. All trading decisions concerning USD I would make in most caution.

GBP
Official bank rate on Thursday, expected to remain same, so it's good for GBP. Throughout the week it's all green for GBP except CPI on Monday. If it prints green then GBP bull the whole week. Definitely will search to buy GBP but not GU. If holding EG short then I would continue to hold that.

EUR
Not much important news next week but everything what I see is expected to be red. So we can expect EUR to go down in most pairs. EUR is overbought in EURAUD and EURCAD so at least in these pairs I would search to sell. At least in any EUR pair I would not buy EUR.

CAD
Biggest news for CAD are on Friday, CPI and Retail sales. CPI is expected to be red and retail sales green. So I believe expected green news on Friday should move CAD up for whole week as no any other important news there. I also think CAD is too oversold so corrections to be expected here as well. I'm CAD long atm so I expect this to work out. So I will look to buy CAD.

JPY
They are in holiday mood and not much happening there . JPY seems also a little overbought so expecting corrections and will watch to sell JPY in AJ, UJ and CJ.

NZD
RBNZ rate statement on Wednesday. Not sure what to expect. But as AN is still in range and looks like it will touch the 4th time the 1.0660 area I would look to sell NZD and Buy AUD. Definitely not selling NZD in NU. Also I would look to sell NZD in NC as I'm CAD long anyway.

AUD
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on Tuesday and employment change on Thursday. Employment change expected to be green so it should help a little AUD longs.

As I'm new in this it could be spot on or totally off. But this is my view for the next week and I hope to follow it.
  • #16,153
  • Mar 17, 2018 7:20am Mar 17, 2018 7:20am
Quoting Davit
My week didn't go as I planned.Wobbled on NU and AU shorts (closed way too early) missed huge opportunities. I need to forgive myself and try to stick with my trading overall view which was correct I just failed to stick to it.Market didn't move the CAD pairs in a way that I wanted but all is not lost still time left for the month. Modest gain for the week but nothing worth posting.I am posing this because we all make mistakes and there is always room to improve. I had 500pips on 1pair and instead of closing I wanted home run and waited until price...

did exactly the same with AU and NU, well had to move on and forget about it. Still in good plus this month and for the first time crossed the mental (equity) barrier I was stuck with for almost 3 weeks. Looks like the best would be to forget the money at all and enjoy trading, stick to the plan, be patient and the money will come. All the books say it but easier said than done. I need to work more on psychological part as its so important.

Enjoy the weekend anyways and good luck
The only thing that will make us successful is if we can control ourselves!
  • #16,154
  • Mar 17, 2018 7:45am Mar 17, 2018 7:45am
Quoting Davit
This makes you not a lesser trader but stronger trader recognizing what others do better in particular circumstances. To me others making money from my system makes me happy even if I had crappy week.Cheers
Well said Davit and thanks again for mentoring novices like me. I dont engage much but always study your analysis again and again.
Be the change that you want to change
  • #16,155
  • Mar 17, 2018 8:26am Mar 17, 2018 8:26am
Quoting Davit
My week didn't go as I planned.Wobbled on NU and AU shorts (closed way too early) missed huge opportunities. I need to forgive myself and try to stick with my trading overall view which was correct I just failed to stick to it.Market didn't move the CAD pairs in a way that I wanted but all is not lost still time left for the month. Modest gain for the week but nothing worth posting.I am posing this because we all make mistakes and there is always room to improve. I had 500pips on 1pair and instead of closing I wanted home run and waited until price...
This post is how you tell the true teachers from the vendors. This is what really helps newbies.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #16,156
  • Mar 17, 2018 9:35am Mar 17, 2018 9:35am
Guys thanks for your support and lets go over next week calendar.

Overview
focus is on USD and GBP heavy and watch PA and follow the events and see how market sentiment gears on these pairs.Market PA rules but we like to be prepared!

Monday
AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
I don’t expect much change here in terms of fundamentals any hint of future hikes may propel AUD north specially AJ and AN watch these pairs
Tues
GBP-CPI y/y if prints negative all G pairs may start declining slowly or remaining same working itself to Thurs when much more important data is coming out.
I think the reason G pairs did not get sold off last week because of GBP events next week and once again market looks ahead!

Weds huge day get ready!

GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y I believe market will hold GBP neutral until Thurs.

USD the pink elephant in the room. Feds rate and policy formulation
Question is how much of this will be priced in by Weds. Wait and see and don’t be surprised even if Feds raise USD declining quickly right after.

NZD rate expectation unchanged
AUD-Unemployment Rate/Employment Change
Note here if NZD rate stays the same which is expected and AUD prints green expect AN to shoot north!!Be ready here!

Thursday
Big day for GBP
Retail Sales m/m
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
Monetary Policy Summary
Official Bank Rate
Wait and see the sentiment on this but don’t be surprised G pairs declining specially GC which is seating very high now 182+

Friday
CAD CPI m/m Core Retail Sales m/m
CPI negative and retail positive if prints as forecasted I anticipate positive for CAD and finally may start corrections on CAD pairs specially NC and AC which I am still holding. AC could drop below 100 and NC mid 92
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m may not be a mover.


After going though this my confidence level is up and I have a game plan.May be buying AUD specially against NZD and AJ
Will look how market reacts after Weds on USD and I am sure lots of bargains will present themselves.Looking to get out of AC and NC shorts at healthy profits been holding these for awhile.
good luck guys
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #16,157
  • Mar 17, 2018 9:41am Mar 17, 2018 9:41am
Quoting 1pipperhour
I thought I'll have a go on this. Best way to learn is by practicing, right? Went through next week's calendar and this is what I think. G20 Meetings on Monday and Tuesday so some news flash and certain spikes to be expected. USD Wednesday Federal Funds Rate and FOMC. Not wise to trade at least USD pairs on Wednesday. USD is expected to get stronger but I'm not sure how much of this is already priced in and it could spike in every direction. So I would wait after dust settles and make my trading decisions after. All trading decisions concerning...
try to this in chronological order by day so you know what's coming and when.Looks good and I like to know how you feel right after doing this.Has anything changed in you?
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #16,158
  • Mar 17, 2018 9:44am Mar 17, 2018 9:44am
Quoting Davit
{quote} try to this in chronological order by day so you know what's coming and when.Looks good and I like to know how you feel right after doing this.Has anything changed in you?
This tells me that EU will be nice and quiet with Low ADR's on Monday and Tuesday leading up to the News Releases on Wednesday.

Edit: Although you never know what the CPI and Core CPI releases will bring. I feel like they typically move the market one way or another.....and when there are 5 or 6 of them released on the same day, but staggered, they tend to create a Trend.
  • #16,159
  • Mar 17, 2018 9:55am Mar 17, 2018 9:55am
Quoting snail69
{quote} Very true Davit. I do not count it per se in advance. It pops at me and then I count length to see whether it is mathematically correct. Attached is pic of several waves together as I saw them. 2nd is zoomed a bit too see the little EW - yellow And one pic from February. {image} {image} {image}
thanks for posting the close ups.Looks good.Be aware FEds next week and calendar events.New week fresh mind!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #16,160
  • Mar 17, 2018 1:34pm Mar 17, 2018 1:34pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} try to this in chronological order by day so you know what's coming and when.Looks good and I like to know how you feel right after doing this.Has anything changed in you?
I've always been aware of news and making notes. When I traded only one pair, it was easier. Now trading multiple pairs I see no other way than plan ahead more. I've been reading your weekly plans and others as well to get a better feel on this and trying to do this for myself but not publicly.

How I feel? I feel more confident having at least some kind of plan for the week. If it works out or not, I don't know but at least I know what to avoid.

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