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Trading using average rotation of swings (ARS)? 21 replies

1 trade per pair per year 6 replies

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(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

CMCSA and JCI in play.
Ok so to recap again why this thread has been created, what this thread is for and what is not. The main goal here is to train and turn few individuals into consistent traders able to execute all patterns traded in strategy. Those traders would then form a signal sharing room covering any liquid market on daily basis. Anyone is wellcome but mainly targeted individuals are ones able to contribute at least 1 hour a day towards trading.
This thread is not about showing off to make look good by posting only winning trades or should/could/would entries. It is expected from every participant to be as transparent as possible posting mistakes, and loses as well in order to point out and correct those mistakes in future. No trader over-performs his/her strategy, nor does a human exists that performs strategy with perfect execution, every trader will under-perform a strategy, the question is just by how much and if there are certain execution mistakes that keep repeating they should be pointed out to be corrected as much as possible.
This thread is also not a idea sharing thread like many on trading forums, from any participant it is expected to execute the rules of each pattern as close to good as possible and no additional indicators will be allowed on posts (with few exceptions like ATR indie, or perhaps some indicator that helps with position scaling etc).
It is suggested that each trader draws his thought process on a trade if possible to see the quality of execution and thinking process (if one is unsure then just leave it blank nothing wrong with that).

Often i get questions: "if your strategy really works, how much capital do i need to fully daytrade for income?". The answer to this depends on many factors, but for most people becoming consistently profitable of full daily income can be possible with very little capital with such high frequency strategy, as little as 1k should be enough (2-3k on equities), to quickly build it into bit larger acc and then trade from there.
Generally those requirements will depend on how many traders per day one executes (less trades needs more capital), how well is strategy executed and most importantly where that trader lives (cost of living) and also the appetite. For US individuals those numbers could be quite higher, especially due to lower leverage on FX and also PTD rule on equities (25k minimum).
Quoting janpec1000
CMCSA and JCI in play.
Played CMSA, didnt manage to enter JCI due to margin lock.
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MO A quality play, long 63,75.
Quoting janpec1000
MO A quality play, long 63,75.
Sold for -1R loss.
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0.5R loss, waiting too long...
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CRM and ABBA in bull play. Also MO. And PM.
PCG and DIS potential squeeze into market close.
losers for me today..
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nollej is power..
Quoting janpec1000
PCG and DIS potential squeeze into market close.
PCG expected larger move. Closed near BE.
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Quoting nollej
losers for me today.. {image} {image}
Ok so few things to note here. First of all make sure that you are using limit orders and not market orders to enter a trade. This is one little step towards being disciplined trader , trade should be filled very closely to the important level you are watching, this will ensure / prevent cascade event of bad decisions that often come from bad fills. On takeout attempt after supply is taken, place pending limit order as close to that supply as possible, instead of rushing with market order entry.
This will by default increase your RR on trade, sure it will also happen that you will miss a trade and not get fill while price going in your favour, but just becouse you miss single setup its not the end of the world. Cutting loses quickly can only be ensured if your fill is actually close to order flow behaviour that is a must, becouse "cutting loss quickly" is conceptual process as its only relevant to your RR and order flow / PA behaviour.

It might seem from my screenshot that whats the actual difference is only less of a 1 pip, but actually pips dont matter, its all about R difference. And those little differences are what is most important to prevent cascade event of bad decisions.

On GBPUSD example, mind that supply takeouts are traded only on first supply that is taken out on down trend. If there has been significant supply already taken out before the structure / supply you follow then you are not following the right setup. That is why focusing on clean down trends with impulse drops and then clean structure developed is priority to focus becouse there is no confusion there that you are really tracking the latest and freshest order flow on supply.

Positive edge trading is all about those micro and sublime differences, its not about obvious macro infos, the more you improve each micro step on execution and pattern recognition the closer you are to consistent profits.

On positive note, your SL placement was spot on, correct way to handle risk on those shelves.
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Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Ok so few things to note here. First of all make sure that you are using limit orders and not market orders to enter a trade. This is one little step towards being disciplined trader , trade should be filled very closely to the important level you are watching, this will ensure / prevent cascade event of bad decisions that often come from bad fills. On takeout attempt after supply is taken, place pending limit order as close to that supply as possible, instead of rushing with market order entry. This will by default increase your RR on trade,...
I definitely agree using pendings is better, as like you say it makes you stick to "the plan", its just so tempting sometimes to jump in when you see price moving in your "expected" direction. As usual the psychological parts of trading come up again.
For the GBPUSD I didnt see that little structure between the original one I was looking at. Looks like a few pips could have also been taken in there.

Thanks for leaving the positive note for the end Stop placement to me is usually just the logical point under the push through (or as you term it the "micro shelf").
As always thanks for the review and pics
nollej is power..
Quoting nollej
{quote} I definitely agree using pendings is better, as like you say it makes you stick to "the plan", its just so tempting sometimes to jump in when you see price moving in your "expected" direction. As usual the psychological parts of trading come up again. For the GBPUSD I didnt see that little structure between the original one I was looking at. Looks like a few pips could have also been taken in there. Thanks for leaving the positive note for the end Stop placement to me is usually just the logical point under the push through (or as...
Exactly, fear of missing out on trade is always a real factor on every setup. Its important to train yourself to get out of that kind of mentality. One of key aspects to cure that is to execute at least few trades a day, that way you can always rationalize that missing 1 trade a day isnt the end of the world. Its all about scenarios and how you calculate situation which will reflect the way you trade. The way you approach trading will leave the biggest footprint on how you also perform in trading. Traders that trade low frequency setups (few trades a month) have statistically much higher levels of FOMO built into trades, and usually underperform on execution side a lot, while higher frequency traders or algos for that matter have much better performance. That is due to way one rationalizes each setup by setup and how to execute it.

Myself i dont like any lessons or guides that are hard to execute so its always important to reveal the whole thinking process behind execution of process to note where the problem is. Low frequency of executions leads to cascading event of executing many trades on FOMO factor (market order), the cure is to have more executions each month.
And never listen to people who tell you that "overtrading is bad". Most of those have no idea how quality of process exeuction is improved. That doesnt apply to just trading, but any process that exists overall.
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Exactly, fear of missing out on trade is always a real factor on every setup. Its important to train yourself to get out of that kind of mentality. One of key aspects to cure that is to execute at least few trades a day, that way you can always rationalize that missing 1 trade a day isnt the end of the world. Its all about scenarios and how you calculate situation which will reflect the way you trade. The way you approach trading will leave the biggest footprint on how you also perform in trading. Traders that trade low frequency setups...
I do agree that trading on such low timeframes will train you a lot quicker than on higher timeframes, however there is a part of me that would like to think that trading on higher timeframes and taking fewer setups could still be profitable (and I am sure some people make it work). Do you ever feel the need/want to move to higher timeframes so you don't have to be so full on with your trading? On that note, and sorry if you have covered it but I cant remember reading it, but do you find such patterns work on higher timeframes?
I definitely agree on not being afraid to overtrade.. as long as you are not over trading and not learning anything from it
nollej is power..
GU
Daily thoughts?
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Quoting nollej
{quote} I do agree that trading on such low timeframes will train you a lot quicker than on higher timeframes, however there is a part of me that would like to think that trading on higher timeframes and taking fewer setups could still be profitable (and I am sure some people make it work). Do you ever feel the need/want to move to higher timeframes so you don't have to be so full on with your trading? On that note, and sorry if you have covered it but I cant remember reading it, but do you find such patterns work on higher timeframes? I definitely...
Yes has been answered many times, those patterns work on any TF. But the higher TF you trade the less executions youll get, and therefore that will impact you performance.
Best scenario is having macro TF setup (H1, D1) and then using micro setup M1 or M5 for entry along with macro path for great RR. Those trades are always the perfect scenario, but are not very frequent.

Machine learning is one of the most significant and strongest patterns developing right now, so far very much put aside compared to its strenght. Machine learning is all about using neural networks to learn a process simply by executing that process, while having very little to none prior theoretical knowledge. Its not practical for humans since brains need a lot of time to learn such process, but algos / robots can repeat 10000s of repetitions in very short time using that kind of learning process which has been proven way more successful. Elon Musks neural network setup proves it all along, using this approach an algo can gain positive edge over any human very quickly.
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yes has been answered many times, those patterns work on any TF. But the higher TF you trade the less executions youll get, and therefore that will impact you performance. Best scenario is having macro TF setup (H1, D1) and then using micro setup M1 or M5 for entry along with macro path for great RR. Those trades are always the perfect scenario, but are not very frequent. Machine learning is one of the most significant and strongest patterns developing right now, so far very much put aside compared to its strenght. Machine learning is all...
Apologies for the repeat question then I definitely like the idea of moving in line with a higher timeframe so I will look into this some more.
I have seen some videos of these machine learning they are doing, particularly with gaming.. Starting to get a little scary hey.. we better start taking as much money from the market as we can before the robots are just trading against eachother and we can just watch like a game
nollej is power..
Quoting nollej
{quote} Apologies for the repeat question then I definitely like the idea of moving in line with a higher timeframe so I will look into this some more. I have seen some videos of these machine learning they are doing, particularly with gaming.. Starting to get a little scary hey.. we better start taking as much money from the market as we can before the robots are just trading against eachother and we can just watch like a game
Framed games are the way to go to observe machine learning, one needs market that is framed by rules to observe such process. You do not need to worry about robots or algos yet as those operate on mich higher scales. As long as humans participate in market (10-30 years) one can extract an edge there.
good setup on GC but unfortunate

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on TRY i exited just before the big move in my direction

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