Attachments: Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

#38,301
Mar 12, 2018 1:56pm Mar 12, 2018 1:56pm

bmdenton23
| Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 1,054 Posts

First 2 trades out of the gate this morning were -81, but ended green.

+32 effective pts for the day
-12 actual pts for the day
That means the larger swings with smaller contract size didn't work out, the smaller swings with larger contract sizes did work out.

That makes it 10 out of the last 11 days green. Best streak I've ever personally had was 18 out of 20 days green.

#38,302
Mar 12, 2018 2:11pm Mar 12, 2018 2:11pm

PeterT
| Joined Nov 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,121 Posts

Quoting evocpr19

Disliked

{quote} .. So based on the new reference swing, we expect a NSL (which will fail, but we do not know yet). We enter short at 50 fib. We see price trying 2 times to produce this "expected" NSL. However, it fails. Dependent on your rules, you should be able to exit here at least with BE+X. Now, we see a re-alignement of short term action to long term action. We would enter on deep correction of "3"-"4" with a 1:1 expectation to the upside.

Ignored

This is where I go wrong I guess.
I'm holding on to the expectation of a NSL until it actually fails (and the high of the main swing is broken)
After the two failed attempts, I think "well price probably needs a deeper correction first before it can make that NSL.
I see now that the NSL was somewhat unreasonable.

Still I'm stuck between this and Mr. Pip saying "the expectation is the expectation until it fails"..
But I also understand what you're saying..

#38,303
Mar 12, 2018 2:21pm Mar 12, 2018 2:21pm

evocpr19
| Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,719 Posts

2nd Part YM trades: +193

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#38,304
Mar 12, 2018 2:28pm Mar 12, 2018 2:28pm

Nikster
| Joined Jul 2017 | Status: Trader | 216 Posts

Quoting evocpr19

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2nd Part YM trades: +193 {image}

Ignored

Hey Evocpr Your results are amazing man! Was it correct that your entered long arround 19:45 (yellow arrow) because of a larger 1:1 completion?

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#38,305
Mar 12, 2018 2:49pm Mar 12, 2018 2:49pm

PeterT
| Joined Nov 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,121 Posts

Quoting Coreg2004

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{quote} Hi Peter, I hope it helps and doesn't violate the rules of this thread. Good luck with your trading.............Pictures below my charts taken from the book: Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications by John Murphy {image} {image} {image} {image}

Ignored

Thanks Coreg. Gonna need a deeper look into your post to understand everything that is on your chart.
Thanks for the book reference also

#38,306
Mar 12, 2018 3:02pm Mar 12, 2018 3:02pm

evocpr19
| Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,719 Posts

Quoting Nikster

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{quote} Hey Evocpr Your results are amazing man! Was it correct that your entered long arround 19:45 (yellow arrow) because of a larger 1:1 completion?{image}

Ignored

I was more following the immediate orderflow (was not looking at your highlighted 1:1). On this second part, ended more in trading what I think will happen and got shortly after my entry the confirmation, which let me stay in the trade. However, should not do that.

#38,307
Mar 12, 2018 3:10pm Mar 12, 2018 3:10pm

Nikster
| Joined Jul 2017 | Status: Trader | 216 Posts

Quoting evocpr19

Disliked

{quote} I was more following the immediate orderflow (was not looking at your highlighted 1:1). On this second part, ended more in trading what I think will happen and got shortly after my entry the confirmation, which let me stay in the trade. However, should not do that.

Ignored

I recognize what you mean. I have that sometimes too but most of the times I entered too early and with my stop too close and after getting stopped out I see price move in the anticipated direction. Just check my trades of last week (especially the losers) what I mean. For me it's better to just trade the expectation until it fails instead of looking for D trades. That is the next step for me.

#38,308
Mar 12, 2018 3:22pm Mar 12, 2018 3:22pm

PeterT
| Joined Nov 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,121 Posts

Quoting S41nt

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{quote} PeterT, I think ...

Ignored

The zone seems to be a little off indeed. It probably would have stopped me from taking the second trade.

Regarding reading strength and weakness, it's really screwing with me.
Don't know anymore if I should pay attention to it or not.
Very confused lately.
Thanks for your post

#38,309
Mar 12, 2018 4:17pm Mar 12, 2018 4:17pm

bmdenton23
| Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 1,054 Posts

Quoting crixus

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{quote} Earlier you wrote : YM - anyone trading the D of this ABCD? Easier to see on the 1597T there were no signs that the CD leg was weaker. Maybe some of you take it automatically without considering the CD leg.

Ignored

I was looking at it on the 233T, I typically draw the AB, then copy that line, move it to the CD, and if the CD took more ticks to complete, I consider that to be a weaker leg. In this particular case, the CD leg started out weak, and finished strong, just as you noted. I don't often take D trades, can't seem to get a good feel for it. Probably breakeven lifetime on D trades.

#38,310
Mar 12, 2018 4:20pm Mar 12, 2018 4:20pm

bmdenton23
| Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 1,054 Posts

Quoting PeterT

Disliked

{quote} This is where I go wrong I guess. I'm holding on to the expectation of a NSL until it actually fails (and the high of the main swing is broken) After the two failed attempts, I think "well price probably needs a deeper correction first before it can make that NSL. I see now that the NSL was somewhat unreasonable. Still I'm stuck between this and Mr. Pip saying "the expectation is the expectation until it fails".. But I also understand what you're saying..

Ignored

I'm with you PeterT. Lately, I've kept the 233T, 144T, and 89T up on screen, I basically trade which ever order flow seems to be the most intact with expectations playing out.

#38,311
Mar 12, 2018 4:46pm Mar 12, 2018 4:46pm

Coreg2004
Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,656 Posts

Quoting PeterT

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{quote} Thanks Coreg. Gonna need a deeper look into your post to understand everything that is on your chart. Thanks for the book reference also

Ignored

Anytime Peter, whatever I can help with.......In my past life, I was required to know quite well a theory of technical analysis so if you have any question ask without hesitation............funny thing, I found the chart with the trades I described yesterday...check this out https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10246472#post10246472 ............it seems like I do what I preach.Good luck with your trading.

Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.

#38,312
Mar 12, 2018 5:43pm Mar 12, 2018 5:43pm

PeteH
| Joined Jan 2018 | Status: Trader | 216 Posts

Quoting PeterT

Disliked

{quote} This is where I go wrong I guess. I'm holding on to the expectation of a NSL until it actually fails (and the high of the main swing is broken) After the two failed attempts, I think "well price probably needs a deeper correction first before it can make that NSL. I see now that the NSL was somewhat unreasonable. Still I'm stuck between this and Mr. Pip saying "the expectation is the expectation until it fails".. But I also understand what you're saying..

Ignored

Hi PeterT,

I am new to trading harmonically and have also had the 233T, 144T and 89T charts up to see what entries are clearest. I too find it tough to stick to my rules however I find that analysing performance helps me. Last Wednesday I had five losing trades in a row totalling -151 pips where the price kept breaking the expectation. I'd trade short for a NSL only to see a break of expectation followed by a trade long for a NSH only to see the price break expectation to the downside. It certainly puts doubt in your mind when you get a number of these in a row however I noted that other traders also struggled that day which means that I can't be trading too differently to what Mr Pip has taught us. Also if you think about it if price is not trending up or downwards in a strong manner this is going to be a possibility.

After Wednesday I realised that when expectations break it often happens in a non-sequential order (i.e. complex corrections in a longer term time frame that I am trading) so I don't beat myself up about my trades but simply move on to the next one. Presently I have a fairly simple trade plan but I adjust a little over time. The key to me is the probability and average size of the winners versus losers.

If I can get my mindset into thinking probabilities it helps me. For instance if my trade plan works and lets say that I get 65% (rather than 70%) of trades playing out to a winner in the longer run I will make good profits especially as my trade plan makes sure I avoid those large pip losses. I try to only take on trades with an initial 1:1 risk reward which usually means taking on trades on 50%+ corrections (i.e. avoiding the 38% moves). This can be annoying when today there were a few large drops after a retracement on the 38% but it is my trade plan and it means I keep potential SL's at around 40 or less.

So far I am just under on profit since the start of 2018, I have made mistakes but I have also found that my average losing trades are -36 pips and the average winning trades are +51 pips. I am hoping for a really nice trailing 150+ pip winner which I am sure will come with time. I have a little bottle of champagne ready for that event as it will mean I have one good trade wiping out my -151 Wednesday.

I hope this is of some help to you!

#38,313
Mar 12, 2018 5:45pm Mar 12, 2018 5:45pm

PeteH
| Joined Jan 2018 | Status: Trader | 216 Posts

Quoting evocpr19

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2nd Part YM trades: +193 {image}

Ignored

Congratulations evocpr19 your results are fantastic!

#38,314
Mar 13, 2018 2:15am Mar 13, 2018 2:15am

evocpr19
| Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,719 Posts

Quoting PeteH

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{quote} Congratulations evocpr19 your results are fantastic!

Ignored

Thank you.

#38,315
Mar 13, 2018 5:37am Mar 13, 2018 5:37am

mukai
| Joined Dec 2016 | Status: Trader | 65 Posts

Quoting Nikster

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{quote} Hey Mukai, if you use Ninjatrader then click on your chart then press 'Alt'+ 'S' and save on your computer. Then when you want to post you'll see the option upload from divice and then when you've done that press the function 'insert'

Ignored

The 'Alt'+ 'S' has refused....

I'm using snipping tool, i snip the document and then copy.....but it refuses to paste here, yet I can paste on any other word page.

#38,316
Mar 13, 2018 7:25am Mar 13, 2018 7:25am

Prock
| Joined Jan 2018 | Status: Trader | 215 Posts

Quoting mukai

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{quote} The 'Alt'+ 'S' has refused.... I'm using snipping tool, i snip the document and then copy.....but it refuses to paste here, yet I can paste on any other word page.

Ignored

Hi Mukai,

To post your chart follow these steps:

Switch to the chart you want to save on nina trader.

Right click on the chart you want to save and click Save Chart Image.

Save chart image to a place you can easily find the image like on your desktop.

Head over to the forum and press Reply to thread

At bottom where it says Attach Files: Click Upload from Device

Once loaded press insert.

#38,317
Mar 13, 2018 8:44am Mar 13, 2018 8:44am