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Pivot Trading

  • #15,981
  • Mar 10, 2018 11:21am Mar 10, 2018 11:21am
Quoting Nostromo
{quote} Davit, a quick question please: This week we had several CAD pairs "in the zone" at the same time, I was looking at UC, AC and EC and tried to pick the one that I felt had the best potential, whereas you placed trades on several CAD pairs. I can see it is a safer approach to spread your trades over somewhat correlated pairs, but on the other hand there is more profit to be had from trying to pick the one that will 'probably' have a greater correction. Looking back at this moment from peak this week to current price the 3 I considered have...
Hi Nostromo

I will like to have a go at your question. In addition to what Dab and Davit has mentioned, what I do when I have this dilemma is to measure the pip/point distance from the zone to the weekly pivot (on the assumption/probability that price will touch the pivot most times) and take the one with the highest pip/point distance. If you look at this suggestion you will see it ties into Dab and Davit's comments. If you measure the distance EC comes out to be the most profitable to trade among the 3 pairs.

I hope you find this useful.

Green pips..
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #15,982
  • Mar 10, 2018 11:38am Mar 10, 2018 11:38am
Quoting aimsttrader
TUES USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.5% USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3% WED NZD Current account -2.45B -4.68B CNY Industrial Production y/y 6.3% 6.2% THUR NZD GDP q/q 0.8% 0.6% Trade Plan Buy NZDUSD until TUE Sell USDCNY until TUE Buy NZD until THUR Please Correct me if I am wrong Davit , Regards . Thank you
Its a start but I am surprised no mention at all about the pink elephant in the room.
Exercise is not about you deciding buy or sell but having awareness about the events and take appropriate action and that action could be NOT trading particular currency like NZD until market shows its intentions.
Your bias (sentiment)must match with the market's. That's why PA is king.Please don't sleepwalk though this you missed key events.Why don't you take a look
FF calender here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 25 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #15,983
  • Mar 10, 2018 11:42am Mar 10, 2018 11:42am
Quoting Davit
{quote} nice productive post buddy.I hope everything is ok.Have not seen you much lately here regards
Thank you Davit, everything is going on well, I trust you are fine and your family too. I have been lurking but not having the ample time to post due to career pressures , but things seems to be easing abit now. many thanks for checking up. I appreciate.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #15,984
  • Mar 10, 2018 11:50am Mar 10, 2018 11:50am
Quoting Catalin68
{quote} Davit, best wishes for your amazing result and motivation for us. My result for this month with these pivots ... it is obvious that I still have a lot of problems to fix, but I can say I'm on the right track. {image} Good weekend everybody !
Hi Catalin
Good result actually real impressive considering account size you have.There is something unusual about it. You took 1449 trades? in 7day trading 14x more then me....
207 trades per day.That's probably more then scalpers trade per day.You even topped them.
Your average profitable trade is 1.96 and your loss is -1.60 with profit margin of .36C
That tells me you are over trading and getting out of profitable trades EARLY. Looks like as soon as you see profit you close.This could be larger issue such as fear of the market perhaps due to blown accounts before.
Work on this.This is serious.Read the book trading in the zone.He covers this.
cheers
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #15,985
  • Mar 10, 2018 12:00pm Mar 10, 2018 12:00pm
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote} congrats buddy .... sitting on 16% @maxDD 2.6% {image}
Hi buddy
If you got 16% in 4months then I think you are underachieving specially that I know what you capable of.Something is holding you back and only you know the answer.
Cheers buddy
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #15,986
  • Mar 10, 2018 12:25pm Mar 10, 2018 12:25pm
Just a friendly advise. Don't trade CHF it basically moves almost same as Euro but Euro cheaper to trade.
-.75 swap CHF is costly even to hold.
When you see AUD/CHF substitute EA CAD/CHF sub EC and that goes for all CHF pairs.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #15,987
  • Mar 10, 2018 12:49pm Mar 10, 2018 12:49pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Catalin Good result actually real impressive considering account size you have.There is something unusual about it. You took 1449 trades? in 7day trading 14x more then me.... 207 trades per day.That's probably more then scalpers trade per day.You even topped them. Your average profitable trade is 1.96 and your loss is -1.60 with profit margin of .36C That tells me you are over trading and getting out of profitable trades EARLY. Looks like as soon as you see profit you close.This could be larger issue such as fear of the market...
Thank Davit for guidance, and you are perfectly right, you have just seen my fear behind these transactions. Although I read the book, as well as the entire thread from head to tail, I will consider your request and reread the book. Theoretically, I understood her content well, I really enjoyed it ... but putting it into practice kills us.
The road to success is always under construction !
  • #15,988
  • Mar 10, 2018 2:17pm Mar 10, 2018 2:17pm
Trading crosses

I will like to share a method by which I opine we can optimize our entries when trading crosses. We all know that the USD is the world reserve currency and any currency pair not involving the dollar is a cross. I have also observed some of these crosses are a delight to trade. For illustration I will use EURCAD short trade that happened recently 07 March 2018.

EURCAD (short) = EURUSD (short) :USDCAD (short) i.e for EURCAD to go down, EURUSD and USDCAD must go down at the same time (this does not happen most times). What we are really interested in, is the weakness of the EURO so we will put more weight on the signal generated by EURUSD.

The first chart below is EURCAD chart when prices entered the zone and PA and TDI signaled a short (please see highlighted portion on chart)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 33 KB


To confirm the signal, you will look at EURUSD and USDCAD at the same time, but remember more emphasis will be on EURUSD signalling short. Below is USDCAD chart at the same time, the chart confirms the bearish stance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 34 KB


Finally, we look at the EURUSD chart below which also confirms EURO weakness;

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 35 KB


Looking at all the 3 charts, all the parameters are set for a short trade on EURCAD and there is a higher probability that the trade will work out fine, and it did work out. My target will be the weekly pivot, if you have the balls you can short the 3 pairs and reap mega pips.

My 1 cent. Green pips....
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #15,989
  • Mar 10, 2018 9:22pm Mar 10, 2018 9:22pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Its a start but I am surprised no mention at all about the pink elephant in the room. Exercise is not about you deciding buy or sell but having awareness about the events and take appropriate action and that action could be NOT trading particular currency like NZD until market shows its intentions. Your bias (sentiment)must match with the market's. That's why PA is king.Please don't sleepwalk though this you missed key events.Why don't you take a look FF calender here {image}
Hi Davit ! It's my pleasure , to have your guidance once again .

I am not so sure of the mixed forecast data of USD , confusing sentiment .
Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3%
PPI m/m 0.1%
Retail Sales m/m 0.3%

But since then you emphasized on it and corrected me , I should take caution of PA before and after the news as well(especially reacting around the pivot points .)

Thank you for your kindness Davit .
CHECK MY TE !
  • #15,990
  • Mar 11, 2018 1:32am Mar 11, 2018 1:32am
Quoting Davit
Just a friendly advise. Don't trade CHF it basically moves almost same as Euro but Euro cheaper to trade. -.75 swap CHF is costly even to hold. When you see AUD/CHF substitute EA CAD/CHF sub EC and that goes for all CHF pairs.
Thank you Davit.
One Good Trade
  • #15,991
  • Edited 11:02am Mar 11, 2018 10:38am | Edited 11:02am
Quoting aimsttrader
{quote} Hi Davit ! It's my pleasure , to have your guidance once again . I am not so sure of the mixed forecast data of USD , confusing sentiment . Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% PPI m/m 0.1% Retail Sales m/m 0.3% But since then you emphasized on it and corrected me , I should take caution of PA before and after the news as well(especially reacting around the pivot points .) Thank you for your kindness Davit .
You are not gonna get everything in 1 day or week.Give it few years but trust me you'll be far better trader.

I am going to share my Calendar events so you and other can see how I approach it.

Good Morning guys.Best wishes and God bless you all.

The big picture.1st the tone of my canvas is painted with Feds March 21st interest rate decision this is not far hence usually market prices in before the event.Recent Job creation was very green hence overall US economy is good and Feds may actually raise therefore my outlook has not changed I'll be USD bull that means I wont sell USD.This is my canvas background color I am operating.

Tuesday

GBP Annual Budget Release
This document outlines the government's budget for the year, including expected spending and income levels, borrowing levels, financial objectives, and planned investments;
Domestic government spending and borrowing levels can have a significant impact on the economy - increased spending generates work for contractors and creates jobs, while borrowing levels impact the nations credit rating and provide insight into the nation's underlying fiscal position;

I am looking here possible EG further drop. I am short on it.


USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.5%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%

These could print positive however should it print negative we may have a dip selling of USD until tomorrow balancing out with positive retail sales hence your dip buying USD may pay off next day!

Weds
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.0%
USD PPI m/m 0.1% 0.4%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% -0.3%

Retail Sales are very green and should it print even better than expect USD dominance of late may continue.
UJ in particular has lots of room to north.
Crude Oil Inventories this effects the Canadian dollar the most. Wait and see here

NZD GDP q/q a big one nice green forecast but maybe less than predicted hence expect good deal of volatility on all NZD pairs. Should it shoot up north of 7350+ I may start sell it should PA agree and Pivot levels support. Remember big picture
Fri
USD Building Permits not a big mover I don’t expect much here. Could be USD bulls profit taking right before it.


Its obvious looking at this week USD and NZD will become in focus hence you should as well! My trajectory is buy USD in dips until we get closer to March 21

As you can tell I am not pure technical trader.I am sure there are lots of them who don't give a shit on any of these and simply look at candle patters and S/R's. To me this is limiting and does not appeal to me.
Comparison I can give is you are going in the battle with good knowledge of terrain,enemy formations and fortifications and you have plan for counter attacks.You studied best of your knowledge factors that may effect the outcome hence you have good chance of winning the battle.This is my approach vs going in battle blind !no idea of troops formations, terrain or fortifications only reacting to enemy moves but have no plan on your own.
In the long run knowledge is $$ because on each brick you are building the trader in you.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #15,992
  • Mar 11, 2018 10:48am Mar 11, 2018 10:48am
Quoting Catalin68
{quote} Thank Davit for guidance, and you are perfectly right, you have just seen my fear behind these transactions. Although I read the book, as well as the entire thread from head to tail, I will consider your request and reread the book. Theoretically, I understood her content well, I really enjoyed it ... but putting it into practice kills us.
You got to dissociate your emotions from account money.Its a tool to get job accomplished.Don't get attached to it.The reason you fear because you invested lot of emotions on it. Think of it as vehicle to achieve the results you want but don't get overexcited or depressed either.
Usually fear is result of past trauma failed attempts but you must let go.Read the pdf on clipboard Davit Philosophy chapter 23-24 read the whole thing.Its obvious you have not
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #15,993
  • Mar 11, 2018 11:21am Mar 11, 2018 11:21am
Hi Davit,

thank you very much for post 15991. This is exactly what I need to learn....as you would say get the tone of the canvas correctly. I know you mentioned it takes time but so far I have not been able to determine this color. While I am not bad when it comes to technicals this is clearly something I am missing. So I really enjoyed this post. If there is any literature, learning material, webinar that you could point out, I would highly appreciate. All I am doing at the moment is using the FF calendar to - not getting surprised by a sudden fluctuation but you clearly put the information from various other economical indicators together to get the color tone right and this combined with your method that you have been sharing here is the secret to your success. I really appreciate this post..this is probably one of the best posts from you. Again any hint on how to approach this subject I would be highly appreciative. Please bring more of these nuggets. FYI- I especially loved the fact that you brought the CPI and retail sales indicators together to provide an if then scenario ...in your case buying dips in USD until rate announcement.

Thanks so much again

Jester
  • #15,994
  • Mar 11, 2018 11:29am Mar 11, 2018 11:29am
Quoting PandionFX
{quote} Thank you Davit.
Coming from a seasoned trader, your focus on event calendar helps a lot.
Anybody with flair for script-writing can make it colorful and entertaining.
Thank you so much for posting it every week.
  • #15,995
  • Mar 11, 2018 11:34am Mar 11, 2018 11:34am
Quoting Jester_73
Hi Davit, thank you very much for post 15991. This is exactly what I need to learn....as you would say get the tone of the canvas correctly. I know you mentioned it takes time but so far I have not been able to determine this color. While I am not bad when it comes to technicals this is clearly something I am missing. So I really enjoyed this post. If there is any literature, learning material, webinar that you could point out, I would highly appreciate. All I am doing at the moment is using the FF calendar to - not getting surprised by a sudden...
Thank you for appreciating my efforts.My best advise is do your calendar events.Inform yourself then watch the whole week unfold.End of the week access if you were close or missed the mark by huge shot or were able to utilize your knowledge pivots and make money.
There is no magic formula trading takes time, screen time is essential.You will become real trader in 5yrs.Most people drop out before that....
Flexibility is key as well.I may have constructed entire scenarios in my head but market can totally surprise you hence you must be flexible to adapt and utilize new conditions.This is critical in combat as well.Trading is basically mimicking combat.Lot of same principles apply.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #15,996
  • Mar 11, 2018 1:12pm Mar 11, 2018 1:12pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Nostro I had pretty much same number of trades on AC NC and EC but when EC really pushed up I knew from experience this was going to be pump and dump situation then I loaded up more and did same on EA These things are hard to translate.You need more screen time to get a feel.
Davit, Dab, thanks for your feedback, I have only allowed myself a small live account for training with right now so realistically all I do is place 5-6 entries for each of 2 non-correlated pairs, and of course one such problem with this approach is that as we know Market Movers push some pairs and leave others alone, so concentrating only on one pair risks ending up with a relatively small movement for the week.
The reason for my question was I was looking forward to the future where there would be enough entries to spread over e.g. 3 x CAD pairs, and I had been coming up with various scenarios such as: put 50% on the 'most likely high profit' pair and 25% on each of the other 2 CAD pairs, but you summed it up nicely: experience and building an intuitive feel for the market potential is what is needed rather than rigorous formula.
  • #15,997
  • Mar 11, 2018 1:14pm Mar 11, 2018 1:14pm
Quoting lordgbengs
{quote} Hi Nostromo I will like to have a go at your question. In addition to what Dab and Davit has mentioned, what I do when I have this dilemma is to measure the pip/point distance from the zone to the weekly pivot (on the assumption/probability that price will touch the pivot most times) and take the one with the highest pip/point distance. If you look at this suggestion you will see it ties into Dab and Davit's comments. If you measure the distance EC comes out to be the most profitable to trade among the 3 pairs. I hope you find this useful....
Hi Lordgbengs, a good suggestion - thanks for your input, I will bear this in mind
  • #15,998
  • Mar 11, 2018 5:24pm Mar 11, 2018 5:24pm
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1520712355

Can someone please post / repost this version of TDI_Angleator. Thanks
Be the change that you want to change
  • #15,999
  • Mar 11, 2018 6:26pm Mar 11, 2018 6:26pm
Q: Why is Davit so successful?
A: Because HE is his Edge.
  • #16,000
  • Mar 11, 2018 7:28pm Mar 11, 2018 7:28pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} You are not gonna get everything in 1 day or week.Give it few years but trust me you'll be far better trader. I am going to share my Calendar events so you and other can see how I approach it. Good Morning guys.Best wishes and God bless you all. The big picture.1st the tone of my canvas is painted with Feds March 21st interest rate decision this is not far hence usually market prices in before the event.Recent Job creation was very green hence overall US economy is good and Feds may actually raise therefore my outlook has not changed I'll...
GM Davit , I can't thank you enough for this , not sure if I deserve this .
CHECK MY TE !
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