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Almost perfect strategy

  • #21
  • Edited 9:35am Mar 10, 2018 9:25am | Edited 9:35am
How do you even know it's profitable if you're dealing with uncertainty? I don't mean to be rude but how many years have you been trading and looking at the 5m timeframes? You really should know by now what signals look like.

All-in-all this is nowhere near an almost perfect strategy. I don't even see this as having the necessary components to make it a profitable one. To be honest it seems to specifically be missing them.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #22
  • Mar 10, 2018 11:53am Mar 10, 2018 11:53am
thank you for all the answers I will test some of these methods in the next week and see if they bring something positive to my trading I need to stick to the M5 timeframe as I want to trade with small stop loss and have at least 2-3 setups each day...

thanks once again and I hope that the missing element in my strategy will be supplemented in the end
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #23
  • Mar 10, 2018 10:19pm Mar 10, 2018 10:19pm
Quoting freakout
thank you for all the answers I will test some of these methods in the next week and see if they bring something positive to my trading I need to stick to the M5 timeframe as I want to trade with small stop loss and have at least 2-3 setups each day... thanks once again and I hope that the missing element in my strategy will be supplemented in the end
This is a smart answer but does not mean it will lead you to the right way to trade profitably.
Anyway it seems you are more focus of being smart than right. Good luck and mercifully the costs will be less than you can really afford.

Cheers
  • #24
  • Mar 11, 2018 3:32am Mar 11, 2018 3:32am
Quoting freakout
I need some help with my strategy - it's simple and almost perfect but I still miss something. The main rule is to trade the first higher low or lower high after breaking the previous high or low. Here's an example: {image} The problem is that trading on the M5 without higher timeframes is quite risky and I would like to avoid stupid losses, but I don't know what could be the signal on the H1 or H4 timeframe. The best option would be a candlestick reversal pattern like doji, pinbar, inverted hammer or something, but still needs a good placement...
Something you miss out is that you have to always look what the bigger TF are doing. In this case we have made HH on 1H which usually means there is a high chance price will drop to test the base. One more thing to look out for is when ever we have a strong move usually with big candles, this means there are some "trapped" traders in the wrong trade and when price goes back they usually they exit and this does not let the price to go to the base i will show some examples. This is what many traders reffered to as ignored zone, or a zone that price did not usually react to and is usually broken with a lot of momentum and force. Always be careful looking at the market using only one TF this hides a lot of important information you need to know in order to make the best decision. The best way to go in any trade is to do a TOP DOWN analysis going down for let say if you day trade from Daily, 4h, 1h, 30m and i usually enter on smaller TF when i have an idea what price is doing. Cheers and have a good one i hope this post helps
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #25
  • Mar 11, 2018 3:40am Mar 11, 2018 3:40am
Yes it is a good strategy but I would recommend in this regard to use Fibonacci as well in order to spot the trend change more quickly. Moreover, You need to fix out the trend reversal as well and Fibonacci will help to do so.
  • #26
  • Mar 11, 2018 5:07am Mar 11, 2018 5:07am
Quoting teodosy87
{quote} Something you miss out is that you have to always look what the bigger TF are doing. In this case we have made HH on 1H which usually means there is a high chance price will drop to test the base. One more thing to look out for is when ever we have a strong move usually with big candles, this means there are some "trapped" traders in the wrong trade and when price goes back they usually they exit and this does not let the price to go to the base i will show some examples. This is what many traders reffered to as ignored zone, or a zone that...
Hi Teodosy,

What caused H1 to print a Higher High?

During Red News events Liquidity will, most times, drop off

This gives the "Institutions" the opportunity to push Price to take out Stops

The Liquidity from Stops being Triggered allows "them" to Sell at better Prices.

Check M1 for PA to Enter.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11th Mar 18 EUR:USD H1 Observations.png Size: 120 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 11th Mar 18 EUR:USD M5 Observations.png Size: 125 KB
  • #27
  • Mar 11, 2018 5:22am Mar 11, 2018 5:22am
Quoting freakout
I need some help with my strategy - it's simple and almost perfect but I still miss something. The main rule is to trade the first higher low or lower high after breaking the previous high or low. Here's an example: {image} The problem is that trading on the M5 without higher timeframes is quite risky and I would like to avoid stupid losses, but I don't know what could be the signal on the H1 or H4 timeframe. The best option would be a candlestick reversal pattern like doji, pinbar, inverted hammer or something, but still needs a good placement...
pm me.....even steve trades the same as the advice id give
  • #28
  • Mar 11, 2018 5:34am Mar 11, 2018 5:34am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Teodosy, What caused H1 to print a Higher High? During Red News events Liquidity will, most times, drop off This gives the "Institutions" the opportunity to push Price to take out Stops The Liquidity from Stops being Triggered allows "them" to Sell at better Prices. Check M1 for PA to Enter. {image} {image}
Well good pointing this out i am not usually looking at news, for me they compliment what the price is already telling. Understanding hw big institution work is maybe the most important part for any trader in my mind. In this case they needed to trap some traders in order for their trades to be triggered. I usually dont go that much down to 1 min it is to messy for me. I have a specific way to analyze the market , i usually start with the TOP DOWN analysis as this for me is where the direction is given which should be the most important task for everyone. GEtting the direction right is like 80% of the hard work next thing is just to find a place where you enter with as little risk and as much reward as possible. Can you explain how you usually view the market and what makes you enter a trade ? It would be great to share ideas ...
  • #29
  • Mar 11, 2018 5:36am Mar 11, 2018 5:36am
Quoting dkrock
I traded 5M charts for years, so ignore all the other posts. I switched to 15M a few months ago because the range dried up, but if you want to stick to it, it is up to you. First, trading a single candle's signal is pretty stupid on any time frame, but more amplified when you do not know market direction. That is rookie talk. Your avoidance of using indicators is probably based on some misinformation you read, or lack of understanding how indicators work. Second, since you realize some trades are valid, but you do not know market direction, then...
ive read some b.s in my time but this really takes it.

where is big money buying and selling.
where is the liquidity
3 times of the day moves are made..when?
you confirm higher tf with lower tf
use higher tf to be a sniper.
think institional.trader now retail.
you only need price action to trade a chart not indicators....indicators lag cos there information is based off of price data.
all you need is open high low and close
  • #30
  • Mar 11, 2018 5:39am Mar 11, 2018 5:39am
Quoting batus
{quote} My opinion & strategy that i use was similar to your strategy. But i did not rely on candlestick pattern if using lower TF (H4 below). What i'm looking mainly on setup & confirmation of the setup. With those factors, automatically i can allocate stoploss, entry & target level. This help me to trade in a good Risk:Reward. Entry is the expected level of LH or HL after the break of certain level. On your previous chart i have draw a level of my strategy : {image} This is the simply entry using the strategy: {image} Hopes my opinion helps ...
great post batus....i see you were taught by the same mentor as me?
  • #31
  • Mar 11, 2018 5:55am Mar 11, 2018 5:55am
Everyone has his/her own way of viewing the market. Who is to say it is bad or wrong, the most important part of it is .... is it work? If it works then all is good sharing and showing different perspective of how we all can see the market is the real benefit of this forum so lets do that There is not best method .... in my opinion but there is some that work for some and some that does not .... sometimes same method does not work for some and does for other the path we have to take is to find our own way that works for us, this is usually happening by exploring different perspective shared by different people so we can see what we can find that works for us. So please lets share ....
  • #32
  • Mar 11, 2018 5:56am Mar 11, 2018 5:56am
Quoting devontrader
{quote} great post batus....i see you were taught by the same mentor as me?
Who is your mentor ?
  • #33
  • Mar 11, 2018 5:56am Mar 11, 2018 5:56am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Teodosy, What caused H1 to print a Higher High? During Red News events Liquidity will, most times, drop off This gives the "Institutions" the opportunity to push Price to take out Stops The Liquidity from Stops being Triggered allows "them" to Sell at better Prices. Check M1 for PA to Enter. {image} {image}
Here's how it looks on M1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11th Mar 18 EUR:USD M1 Observations.png Size: 142 KB
  • #34
  • Mar 11, 2018 6:01am Mar 11, 2018 6:01am
Quoting teodosy87
{quote} Who is your mentor ?
pm sent
  • #35
  • Mar 11, 2018 6:05am Mar 11, 2018 6:05am
Quoting teodosy87
Everyone has his/her own way of viewing the market. Who is to say it is bad or wrong, the most important part of it is .... is it work? If it works then all is good sharing and showing different perspective of how we all can see the market is the real benefit of this forum so lets do that There is not best method .... in my opinion but there is some that work for some and some that does not .... sometimes same method does not work for some and does for other the path we have to take is to find our own way that works for us, this is usually...

Hi Teodosy,

You are correct everyone has to be an Independent Thinker and use and adapt what makes sense to them as long as it works of coarse
  • #36
  • Mar 11, 2018 6:07am Mar 11, 2018 6:07am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Here's how it looks on M1 {image}
I actually do the same .... great thinking ....
  • #37
  • Mar 11, 2018 6:10am Mar 11, 2018 6:10am
Quoting teodosy87
{quote} Well good pointing this out i am not usually looking at news, for me they compliment what the price is already telling. Understanding hw big institution work is maybe the most important part for any trader in my mind. In this case they needed to trap some traders in order for their trades to be triggered. I usually dont go that much down to 1 min it is to messy for me. I have a specific way to analyze the market , i usually start with the TOP DOWN analysis as this for me is where the direction is given which should be the most important...
Hi Teodosy,

Price is "Fractal" by nature we see the same Price reactions on M1 as we do on the HTFs it's just on a smaller scale.

We just have to get the framework, that we are working in, correct.
  • #38
  • Mar 11, 2018 6:13am Mar 11, 2018 6:13am
Quoting dkrock
Again, I have not traded 5M charts for a few months, so this template might be a little bit off since it is not really aligned to the 5M chart. The arrows represent "possible" 15M chart entry/exit signals and the vertical lines represent "possible" entry/exit signals from the 5M chart. The red box is the Non Farm Payroll report that I recommend you do not try to trade on a 5M chart. What you do not see are the indicators to confirm these trades. That is intellectual property. I think this is the data you are trying to see, though the second time...
Well i am very happy you found something that works for you what anyone says does not matter. There is a way you can trade the historical data with all the indicators you have .... so you can sharpen your skills ..... not suggesting anything here but if you want there is a way
  • #39
  • Mar 11, 2018 6:15am Mar 11, 2018 6:15am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Teodosy, Price is "Fractal" by nature we see the same Price reactions on M1 as we do on the HTFs it's just on a smaller scale. We just have to get the framework, that we are working in, correct.
True! Also price is driven by orders nothing else it follows buys and sells and that is what it do we just need to locate where these buys and sells are an take advantage of them For me looking big picture firs gives me a map so i can follow and i usually go to lower TF to get best possible entry
  • #40
  • Mar 11, 2018 6:16am Mar 11, 2018 6:16am
Quoting dkrock
Again, I have not traded 5M charts for a few months, so this template might be a little bit off since it is not really aligned to the 5M chart at the moment. The arrows represent "possible" 15M chart entry/exit signals and the vertical lines represent "possible" entry/exit signals from the 5M chart. The red box is the Non Farm Payroll report that I recommend you do not try to trade on a 5M chart. What you do not see are the indicators to confirm these trades. That is intellectual property. I think this is the data you are trying to see, though the...
semafor indicator...massive repainter.

looks good in hindsight but trash real time.

price action is all you need
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