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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #38,221
  • Mar 9, 2018 4:22pm Mar 9, 2018 4:22pm
Quoting PipJr
{quote} I had a rough week - Lost 274 points total (-267 on Tuesday, complete loss of focus and plan). Thursday and Friday were positive and last week was +179 Over 2 weeks -95. I learned a lot this week about myself and my tendencies (both good and bad). That growth will be worth more than 100 points in the long run - IF I learn to control my tendencies and trade 'in the zone'. Thanks all for a meaningful forum and don't give up if you have a tough stretch. Positive points to all
It's a long and sometimes painful road but we'll get there eventually
  • #38,222
  • Mar 9, 2018 11:22pm Mar 9, 2018 11:22pm
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  • #38,223
  • Mar 10, 2018 1:43am Mar 10, 2018 1:43am
Quoting PeterT
Ended week with -23 points. While others are raking in hundreds of points, I'm genuinely happy with my smaller loss than last week. Seriously, I'm happy because I'm learning every week. Gonna enjoy a relaxing weekend. I wish you all the same
Ended with -53 for the week mostly due to bad trade planning and undiscipline trading(fear of losing most definitely) and just as what 1 of my friend here told me "U have what you need to be profitable just stick to your plan"
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  • #38,224
  • Mar 10, 2018 3:22am Mar 10, 2018 3:22am
Quoting Aluunatic
{quote} Ended with -53 for the week mostly due to bad trade planning and undiscipline trading(fear of losing most definitely) and just as what 1 of my friend here told me "U have what you need to be profitable just stick to your plan" {image}
Same issues here.
Every time I wonder why it is so hard to just stick to the plan and block emotions or at least don't act to them.
I always thought discipline and controlling my emotions were my strengths.
But trading seems to require just that little bit more discipline and control.

The whole process reminds me of trying to quit smoking.
I quit smoking 1.5 years ago, after many failed attempts over the years.
When I was in a 'quitting' period, I knew I shouldn't smoke, that it was bad.
But many times fell into the trap again, although I knew better, although I was really convinced that smoking was bad.

Same story with my trading.
I shouldn't deviate from my trade plan, it's bad.
Still sometimes I do it, and then I regret it while looking at the damage I've done.

But I firmly believe it's going to grow out of me.
Like smoking. The last attempt just suddenly 'clicked' and worked.
I believe it will be the same with following my trade plan and mastering emotions.

We just have to go on and keep trying.
Keep learning..
Keep bumping our head into the wall.
Keep hitting ourselves with our trade plan.
Eventually it will stick
  • #38,225
  • Mar 10, 2018 3:37am Mar 10, 2018 3:37am
This weekend I have been trying to learn more about the Ninja trader 8 platform. I finally learned how to download the free tick data and replay it during the weekend for practice. I also found this feature... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlV9uV4PVwo

I am experimenting with this feature. I was able to have it set to break even plus 5 automatically. I want to know what you pro traders think of it. Is it worth using or not?

Thanks, fellow traders.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #38,226
  • Mar 10, 2018 5:05am Mar 10, 2018 5:05am
Quoting Pair-me-up
This weekend I have been trying to learn more about the Ninja trader 8 platform. I finally learned how to download the free tick data and replay it during the weekend for practice. I also found this feature... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlV9uV4PVwo I am experimenting with this feature. I was able to have it set to break even plus 5 automatically. I want to know what you pro traders think of it. Is it worth using or not? Thanks, fellow traders.
When you enter market with your automatic settings, there will be situations where your trade needs more room to fullfill your expectation. However, the automatic settings will step in and destroy your trade. As far as I know, you cannot easily change your mind, once a trade is started with your automatic settings.
I do not use it.
  • #38,227
  • Mar 10, 2018 5:49am Mar 10, 2018 5:49am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} When you enter market with your automatic settings, there will be situations where your trade needs more room to fullfill your expectation. However, the automatic settings will step in and destroy your trade. As far as I know, you cannot easily change your mind, once a trade is started with your automatic settings. I do not use it.
After practicing with it on simulation for the last few hours. I agree, that you are totally correct. I think it is total rubbish for our trading style on this thread.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #38,228
  • Mar 10, 2018 7:49am Mar 10, 2018 7:49am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Welcome aboard Tasky
Thanks Mr Pip
  • #38,229
  • Mar 10, 2018 1:36pm Mar 10, 2018 1:36pm
guys i noticed that there are a lot of ABCD do u use some filters when u take them all you take all of them?
  • #38,230
  • Mar 10, 2018 1:52pm Mar 10, 2018 1:52pm
So can I make sure ive got this right
Heres a 233 tick chart EURUSD I'm expecting a NSH and because price made a strong previous NSH I'm looking at a shallow pull back (38.2-61.8) I have confluence there and support.
My target is at very least 127% fib is this correct.

Ive also looked at this method on a daily candlestick chart which shows id be expecting a NSL is it better to use tick chart or a candlestick timeframe chart?

Thankyou in advance!
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  • #38,231
  • Mar 10, 2018 2:25pm Mar 10, 2018 2:25pm
Quoting Neil0163
So can I make sure ive got this right Heres a 233 tick chart EURUSD I'm expecting a NSH and because price made a strong previous NSH I'm looking at a shallow pull back (38.2-61.8) I have confluence there and support. My target is at very least 127% fib is this correct. Ive also looked at this method on a daily candlestick chart which shows id be expecting a NSL is it better to use tick chart or a candlestick timeframe chart? Thankyou in advance! {image}
You got it. As for the tick vs other chart type. I believe the tick charts give you a better PA representation but that’s about it. It all work just the same the expectation is the expectation.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #38,232
  • Edited 3:50pm Mar 10, 2018 3:29pm | Edited 3:50pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} You got it. As for the tick vs other chart type. I believe the tick charts give you a better PA representation but that’s about it. It all work just the same the expectation is the expectation.
Brill thankyou!
Seens so simple.

Also so please can you confirm your fib levels for me

Appreciate your work mr pip
  • #38,233
  • Mar 11, 2018 5:38am Mar 11, 2018 5:38am
Hey traders, here's a problem to think about and discuss. I think similar issues have been reported before, but still not resolved.

This kind of situations sometimes gets me into trouble.
And it is almost always the reason why I don't feel confident in a trade.
I think this is one of the biggest problems that I am facing (and possibly a lot of other traders).
If you have a few of these in a row, it can kill your confidence and your account.

Short description of the trades:
- First trade following expectation of NSH, price corrected deep, entry long at red arrow. Trading the magenta swing.
- SL hit. Expectation failure, very strong move down. I think: OK price clearly wants to correct. I expect at least one more move down, looking at the strong swing down.
- the large bear swing is not corrected deep enough for an entry short, I wait. Bears attack two more times , then price corrects deeper to the upside.
- An extended AB=CD move to the upside, I enter short. Trading the turquoise swing now.
- SL hit again, market decided to continue upwards.

To enter or not to enter?
I had reasons to enter those trades.
Now in hindsight, I can also come with reasons to not enter these trades:
- maybe structure was not defined enough in the entry areas?
- strong support zone in the blue zone with the yellow arrows. Maybe a 1:1 down was unreasonable?
- rotation candle was not good enough
-...

Doubts while trading
While trading, I sometimes just don't know what to do.
I am strong enough to TAKE the trade, and I am strong enough to NOT TAKE the trade.
I can ride the trade out, no problem.
But I just don't know WHAT is the best thing to do.

Your opinion
What do you guys think about this case that I am presenting?
Should I not have entered? And why? And are we not filtering out trades then?
Or was I right to enter? Because after all, I traded the expectation? Was it just bad luck, and NEXT?

Looking forward to your opinions.
Mr. Pip, I (we) would especially appreciate your opinion!

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  • #38,234
  • Mar 11, 2018 6:54am Mar 11, 2018 6:54am
Quoting Neil0163
{quote} Brill thankyou! Seens so simple. Also so please can you confirm your fib levels for me Appreciate your work mr pip
38.2, 50, 61.8, 78.6 on the Extension side 127.2, 138.2, 161.8, 200
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #38,235
  • Mar 11, 2018 6:58am Mar 11, 2018 6:58am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} 38.2, 50, 61.8, 78.6 on the Extension side 127.2, 138.2, 161.8, 200
141.4 also right? prefer it over 138.2
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #38,236
  • Mar 11, 2018 7:28am Mar 11, 2018 7:28am
Quoting PeterT
Hey traders, here's a problem to think about and discuss. I think similar issues have been reported before, but still not resolved. This kind of situations sometimes gets me into trouble. And it is almost always the reason why I don't feel confident in a trade. I think this is one of the biggest problems that I am facing (and possibly a lot of other traders). If you have a few of these in a row, it can kill your confidence and your account. Short description of the trades: - First trade following expectation of NSH, price corrected deep, entry long...
Hi peter,

Definitely a situation that i often face.
I'm not sure whether we should be filtering. As long as we actually trade every expectation. If we do trade every expectation, we should easily be able to recover a back-to-back expectation failure. But i'm not always able to trade every expectation. In fact, the ones i do trade are often losers. This is not because of filtering, but a lack of time.

Also, i didn't had any of the trades yet that turned out to be a 5:1 or bigger RR. Whereas you accidentally happened to caught a monster swing and trailed it nicely.

To me it feels that i simply need to trade more (according to rules though). Simply because on average, if we where actually taking all the trades, we profit about 70% of the time...

That's theory however...
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better
  • #38,237
  • Mar 11, 2018 7:33am Mar 11, 2018 7:33am
Something i stumbled upon in a twitter post:

It's a "parts of a trading system" overview.

Might help all of us defining our trade plan, as this is maybe one of the most important things in our trading career?

This was tweeted by Tradeciety: https://twitter.com/Tradeciety/status/972392376181362688

"I'm 100% certain that if you didn't make money last week it isn't because you used a wrong setting on your indicator
More likely that you
- broke rules
- cut wins early
- chased price
- cut losses late
- over leveraged
- revenge traded
- missed trades
Trading isn't just entries"


Edit: I really didn't knew what "FOMO" means. turned out to be "fear of missing out". In other words described by Mr. Pip as "chasing price"
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Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better
  • #38,238
  • Edited 11:09am Mar 11, 2018 9:58am | Edited 11:09am
Quoting PeterT
Hey traders, here's a problem to think about and discuss. I think similar issues have been reported before, but still not resolved. This kind of situations sometimes gets me into trouble. And it is almost always the reason why I don't feel confident in a trade. I think this is one of the biggest problems that I am facing (and possibly a lot of other traders). If you have a few of these in a row, it can kill your confidence and your account. Short description of the trades: - First trade following expectation of NSH, price corrected deep, entry long...
Hi Peter,

I give a try and will try to explain it simply based on immediate orderflow (although long term orderflow would also point to a NSH on the long term).
On the left side you see all the harmonic moves based on 1:1 immediate orderflows.

At "1" you could see a potential re-alignement to the downside. However, price closed above and longer term expectation was also for NSH.

At "2" you wanted to go long and it failed, OK. However, be aware that you wanted to go long right after producing a long term NSH.I doubt that this is according to your trade plan (would be a long arround the 23, 6 fib). Update: Sorry Peter, saw your expectation after written this.

So based on the new reference swing, we expect a NSL (which will fail, but we do not know yet). We enter short at 50 fib. We see price trying 2 times to produce this "expected" NSL. However, it fails. Dependent on your rules, you should be able to exit here at least with BE+X.

Now, we see a re-alignement of short term action to long term action. We would enter on deep correction of "3"-"4" with a 1:1 expectation to the upside.

Especially the second entry on your chart show that you were following the wrong orderflow. You can do that (except your second entry), but than the SL needs to be at the right place and this would show you that R:R is not right. However, this is less about discipline of sticking to a trade plan.

You could also do the analysis on more long term considerations, but the result would still guide you to the same place (e.g. correction to golden zone,...)

NB: This highlighted "problem" is more price reading. However, even when only following immediate ordeflow, you would have been positive by taking the trades according to your rules.

Hope this helps.
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  • #38,239
  • Mar 11, 2018 10:22am Mar 11, 2018 10:22am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} ...At "2" you wanted to go long and it failed, OK. However, be aware that you wanted to go long right after producing a long term NSH. I doubt that this is according to your trade plan (would be a long arround the 23, 6 fib)....
I agree with your analysis however, this is the first time i read this. You are mixing two timeframes to arrive at this conclusion. His long trade that failed was not near the 23.6% if you take into consideration his anchor swing but i know what you mean you need to take the longer and shorter term TF into consideration.

If you look at the swing that starts at around 12:03 (sept 1) on your chart we have a similar situation where the swing hit 22000 got a PB but this time the long worked.

The difference between both swings is your moving average. The last example that occured at 12:03 (sept 1) the bar closed above your moving average ;-)
  • #38,240
  • Edited 10:53am Mar 11, 2018 10:26am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting crixus
{quote} I agree with your analysis however, this is the first time i read this. You are mixing two timeframes to arrive at this conclusion. His long trade that failed was not near the 23.6% if you take into consideration his anchor swing but i know what you mean you need to take the longer and shorter term TF into consideration.
I know that Peter is more trading the longer term (I just saw now his line showing his expectation; Thank you Crixus for pointing out). However, I just wanted to highlight that "2" is at best an immediate ordeflow entry which failed.

On the price area that you mentioned (1. Sept), price came already from the golden zone from a longer term perspective and also in line with the immediate ordeflow expectation. So very likely to work out.
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