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Almost perfect strategy

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 8, 2018 10:13am Mar 8, 2018 10:13am
I need some help with my strategy - it's simple and almost perfect but I still miss something. The main rule is to trade the first higher low or lower high after breaking the previous high or low. Here's an example:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-m5.png Size: 40 KB


The problem is that trading on the M5 without higher timeframes is quite risky and I would like to avoid stupid losses, but I don't know what could be the signal on the H1 or H4 timeframe. The best option would be a candlestick reversal pattern like doji, pinbar, inverted hammer or something, but still needs a good placement - strong SR level, good SD zone and must be correct with current trend. These setups are rare, so it's useless for me if I have a lot of HL/LH setups on the M5 timeframe. This is the only thing I miss in my strategy and I have no idea how to fix it and what to look at.

I will be very thankful for any help, because this strategy is very simple and very profitable, but I'm still lacking in certainty...
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #2
  • Mar 8, 2018 2:44pm Mar 8, 2018 2:44pm
Maybe have a look at "First pullback strategy" by Stoneyheart
  • #3
  • Mar 8, 2018 4:43pm Mar 8, 2018 4:43pm
anyone?
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #4
  • Mar 8, 2018 5:18pm Mar 8, 2018 5:18pm
See https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post10853503
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5
  • Mar 8, 2018 5:44pm Mar 8, 2018 5:44pm
Quoting strat
See https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post10853503
his indicator show trend change too late - my entry is in place where current MA trend is for example still bullish and price already made a LL/LH sequence... indicators are useless in this method - some price action tips will be much better


thanks for the help btw
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #6
  • Mar 8, 2018 6:40pm Mar 8, 2018 6:40pm
Check out https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=732504
Be sure to watch the videos.
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5.png Size: 24 KB
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #7
  • Mar 8, 2018 9:34pm Mar 8, 2018 9:34pm
hope u understand
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Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDM15.png Size: 62 KB
i'm ever lose $2000, now time to go grow up
  • #8
  • Mar 8, 2018 9:42pm Mar 8, 2018 9:42pm
Quoting freakout
I need some help with my strategy - it's simple and almost perfect but I still miss something. The main rule is to trade the first higher low or lower high after breaking the previous high or low. Here's an example: {image} The problem is that trading on the M5 without higher timeframes is quite risky and I would like to avoid stupid losses, but I don't know what could be the signal on the H1 or H4 timeframe. The best option would be a candlestick reversal pattern like doji, pinbar, inverted hammer or something, but still needs a good placement...
Hi,

perfecting your strategy with fibonacci ratio or harmonic pattern, ABCD is the best for me.

check out this thread started by Mr.Pip
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=402253
  • #9
  • Mar 8, 2018 10:13pm Mar 8, 2018 10:13pm
Quoting freakout
my strategy - it's simple and almost perfect but I still miss something.
Quoting freakout
The problem is that trading on the M5 without higher timeframes is quite risky and I would like to avoid stupid losses, but I don't know what could be the signal on the H1 or H4 timeframe.
Your strategy doesn't have to be perfect from the get go to be profitable. If your system is almost perfect, I don't see why your trading would be risky. I don't mean to insult you, but I think you need to be honest with yourself and not jump the gun. Thumbs up or down: how good is your strategy?

Quoting freakout
The problem is that trading on the M5 without higher timeframes is quite risky and I would like to avoid stupid losses, but I don't know what could be the signal on the H1 or H4 timeframe. The best option would be a candlestick reversal pattern like doji, pinbar, inverted hammer or something, but still needs a good placement - strong SR level, good SD zone and must be correct with current trend. These setups are rare, so it's useless for me if I have a lot of HL/LH setups on the M5 timeframe.
To refine your strategy to perfection, the only way to achieve that is to test it and tweak it. You've identified that filtering low success rate setups are important. But, you're afraid of missing out on the good ones. You have to make a choice of the balance: frequent setups or high success rate setups. I doubt anyone can tell you anything you can do specifically. Maybe point you in the right direction, but that's about it. Just start somewhere, anywhere with your strategy, and fix it yourself. Only you can fix your strategy to suite your needs. I wish you the best.
  • #10
  • Mar 9, 2018 1:24pm Mar 9, 2018 1:24pm
Quoting freakout
I need some help with my strategy - it's simple and almost perfect but I still miss something. The main rule is to trade the first higher low or lower high after breaking the previous high or low. Here's an example: {image} The problem is that trading on the M5 without higher timeframes is quite risky and I would like to avoid stupid losses, but I don't know what could be the signal on the H1 or H4 timeframe. The best option would be a candlestick reversal pattern like doji, pinbar, inverted hammer or something, but still needs a good placement...
Yes, lower time frame like M5 is really unstable! You can try higher time frames like H4/D1.
  • #11
  • Mar 9, 2018 6:31pm Mar 9, 2018 6:31pm
Quoting LuizGuilher
{quote} Yes, lower time frame like M5 is really unstable! You can try higher time frames like H4/D1.
I can't because I have a very small account...

Quoting yungsteest
{quote} {quote} Your strategy doesn't have to be perfect from the get go to be profitable. If your system is almost perfect, I don't see why your trading would be risky. I don't mean to insult you, but I think you need to be honest with yourself and not jump the gun. Thumbs up or down: how good is your strategy? {quote} To refine your strategy to perfection, the only way to achieve that is to test it and tweak it. You've identified that filtering low success rate setups are important. But, you're afraid of missing out on the good ones. You have...
my strategy works very good if we have a reversal pattern on the higher timeframe like H1 or H4 - this can be for example a pinbar near SR level or extremely overbought / oversold market, but sometimes it's not enough... here's an example trade from yesterday (a little late entry):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-m5.png Size: 42 KB


I don't know what kind of filter would be the best for such early entries, but it must come from the higher TF...
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #12
  • Mar 9, 2018 8:49pm Mar 9, 2018 8:49pm
If you're pulling decent setups for yourself, I think you're doing well,
  • #13
  • Edited 10:50pm Mar 9, 2018 10:39pm | Edited 10:50pm
Quoting freakout
I need some help with my strategy - it's simple and almost perfect but I still miss something. The main rule is to trade the first higher low or lower high after breaking the previous high or low. Here's an example: {image} The problem is that trading on the M5 without higher timeframes is quite risky and I would like to avoid stupid losses, but I don't know what could be the signal on the H1 or H4 timeframe. The best option would be a candlestick reversal pattern like doji, pinbar, inverted hammer or something, but still needs a good placement...
My opinion & strategy that i use was similar to your strategy.
But i did not rely on candlestick pattern if using lower TF (H4 below).
What i'm looking mainly on setup & confirmation of the setup.
With those factors, automatically i can allocate stoploss, entry & target level.
This help me to trade in a good Risk:Reward.
Entry is the expected level of LH or HL after the break of certain level.

On your previous chart i have draw a level of my strategy :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-m5.png Size: 64 KB


This is the simply entry using the strategy:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM30.png Size: 48 KB


Hopes my opinion helps and yes, im a pullback trader
  • #14
  • Mar 9, 2018 11:22pm Mar 9, 2018 11:22pm
Quoting freakout
....... The main rule is to trade the first higher low or lower high after breaking the previous high or low. .....this strategy is very simple and very profitable, but I'm still lacking in certainty...
Let's see if I can help here. Try thinking about trading using principles rather than rules.
Rules imply that if A happens then B always follows. Principles simply say that if A happens then B could follow and quite often does.

The market does not respond the same way day after day. That is because the market responds to the actions of the traders watching your currency pair at any given time. As this mix changes, so does the market change.

Forget about certainty, that is like waiting for the perfect trade to appear. If you do this, you will miss it.

It looks like you need to build yourself some directional and strength strategy based on a much longer time frame.
You say that these setups are rare. But if they are profitable, then that is what you need to focus on. Patience young grasshopper.
Stay out of the market until you see one of these "rare" occurrences. Then trade until that occurrence disappears.
Have you ever wondered why a really good day is rarely followed by another good day. That is because the "smart money" has taken their profits and are staying on the sidelines till another "rare opportunity" appears. Meanwhile those who have lost money are licking their wounds and staying on the side lines wondering what went wrong.

Cheers, H
  • #15
  • Mar 10, 2018 12:24am Mar 10, 2018 12:24am
Quoting freakout
{quote} I can't because I have a very small account... {quote} my strategy works very good if we have a reversal pattern on the higher timeframe like H1 or H4 - this can be for example a pinbar near SR level or extremely overbought / oversold market, but sometimes it's not enough... here's an example trade from yesterday (a little late entry): {image} I don't know what kind of filter would be the best for such early entries, but it must come from the higher TF...

Hi Freakout,

Posted the chart,below, in another thread but it is relevant to what you are doing.

Hope it helps...

Take notice of what Batus Post #14 is saying
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9th Mar 18 GBP:JPY M5 Observations.png Size: 165 KB
  • #16
  • Mar 10, 2018 12:27am Mar 10, 2018 12:27am
Quoting freakout
I need some help with my strategy - it's simple and almost perfect but I still miss something. The main rule is to trade the first higher low or lower high after breaking the previous high or low. Here's an example: {image} The problem is that trading on the M5 without higher timeframes is quite risky and I would like to avoid stupid losses, but I don't know what could be the signal on the H1 or H4 timeframe. The best option would be a candlestick reversal pattern like doji, pinbar, inverted hammer or something, but still needs a good placement...
Please identify the LOW that the LL on the chart is lower than

Thanks.

I now see post 14 - 5 minutes is too tough I reckon
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #17
  • Mar 10, 2018 12:35am Mar 10, 2018 12:35am
Subs thanks and
regards
  • #18
  • Mar 10, 2018 1:57am Mar 10, 2018 1:57am
Hi freakout, if you didnt noticed this thread, check it. Seems good to you.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post10784173
Working,to be the best !
  • #19
  • Mar 10, 2018 7:48am Mar 10, 2018 7:48am
Quoting freakout
{quote} his indicator show trend change too late - my entry is in place where current MA trend is for example still bullish and price already made a LL/LH sequence... indicators are useless in this method - some price action tips will be much better thanks for the help btw
Okay, find a price action bar ( looks like you already know what they are). Wait for a bar to close below the high or low, which is the confirmation bar, or signal bar. The last bar is the follow through bar, take a position when the high or low of the confirmation bar is broken. Do not wait for a close, it will be clear who is in control by the break of the confirmation bar. Place a disaster stop at three SD above or below volatility of the time frame of your choice. This stop should never be hit, btw, it is a black swan stop and price should reverse well before that if the trade does not have legs.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #20
  • Mar 10, 2018 8:02am Mar 10, 2018 8:02am
“Almost perfect strategy” eh? So the Holy Grail might exist? Chase the at the end of the
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
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