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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #2,261
  • Mar 3, 2018 1:40am Mar 3, 2018 1:40am
Made a note of it for future when in a different time zone; yes, have seen it work but cannot at all exploit it where I live. .
Quoting AntiCre
Just some food for thought ... During up days the low of the day is set first most of the time. During down days it is the high. Either the high or low of a day is set almost always before 2:00 pm (GMT) (during the London session). Couldn't that be a simple edge?!
  • #2,262
  • Mar 3, 2018 1:50am Mar 3, 2018 1:50am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Yeah, these are just a grid. And when there is a trend, you can count how many renkos are the trend ones and how many are the counter trend ones? Try it... The equilibrium happens when the counter trend becomes a new trend for some period of time. That is how they keep it up to 50:50, but it is not 50:50 at any given moment. Not pips wise... That is the timing factor we all want to catch up with, but cant...
Yes, that's right, I coded zigzag, which measures: trend/reversal condition, retracement %, extension %. Trend occur more often, but on average has smaller extension than previous trend length. And average extension of reversal(new trend length) is 0.5 times bigger than trend extension.
I try various things to get where trend or reversal occurs more than 50:50 with R:R=1:1, and without R:R, try to let it go to the next trend or reversal, and then exit the trade. But everything goes to zero.
Also I added duration, how long it takes to do reversal and trend. But I think timing isn't done in this way.
  • #2,263
  • Mar 3, 2018 4:51am Mar 3, 2018 4:51am
Quoting IenDzi
{quote} I try various things to get where trend or reversal occurs more than 50:50 with R:R=1:1, and without R:R, try to let it go to the next trend or reversal, and then exit the trade. But everything goes to zero. Also I added duration, how long it takes to do reversal and trend. But I think timing isn't done in this way.
Always loving to read scientific posts like that one... Never managed to gain anything using RR. Not even knowing how to trade using RR, which does not bother me.

Because I really like you, I will share something simple, but very special. Every top determins the next bottom and every bottom determines the next top. The number of tops and bottoms is in an almost costant equlibrium. Their difference does not go bigger than 3-4-5. When using a zig zag indi, their difference is just 1. Zig zag or ma, it does not matter. It is the same thing. I survive the range times only because avoiding the centre, where all massacre take place. And catch the following movement, usually between 100 and 300+ pips big, until the next range zone forms... Somehow I catch timing, but not that I know how to do it, but because I have avoided the center and survived the massacre by watching it from a respectful distance... Now thinking how to gain from the massacre. That is a huge opportunity.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #2,264
  • Mar 3, 2018 12:01pm Mar 3, 2018 12:01pm
From CP not yet uploaded to the thread, Origins of Trend Following by Stig Ostgaard.
Quoting HumbleLearne
Dear Crucialpoint , I am one of your greatest Fan's i live in MUMBAI the financial capital of india ( you see you have fans in every part of the world ) i learned alot from you post in fact spent days reading and collecting your post i have also printed all your post and go through it lots of times . i really like your analysis about psyclogical part for trading & other philosophical parts . I HAVE ALMOST COLLECTED & APPLIED ALL THE INDICATORS WHICH YOU...
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File Type: pdf # Stig Ostgaard - Origins of Trend Trading.pdf   60 KB | 1,015 downloads
  • #2,265
  • Edited Mar 4, 2018 4:03am Mar 3, 2018 8:24pm | Edited Mar 4, 2018 4:03am
Quoting Greenstar
Made a note of it for future when in a different time zone; yes, have seen it work but cannot at all exploit it where I live. . {quote}
You're joking right? All it means is that the trend for the day is often set shortly after London session opens. It doesn't really matter where you live. You're trading a global market. If you're asleep because it's 3 a.m. or whatever where you are then you wake the hell up. "I can only trade for a couple hours after NY session closes... I can't find an edge!" has got to be one of the worst excuses a person can have. If you want to find a higher edge in the daily candlesticks I can sure as shit guarantee you that you won't be finding it right after NY close. You trade when the market gives you opportunities, you settle for lucky scraps, or you don't trade: it's that simple.

"If you want to be here for the good days... You have to be here for ALL the days"
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,266
  • Mar 4, 2018 3:18am Mar 4, 2018 3:18am
Daily Market Cycle
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File Type: pdf market-cycle-times.pdf   108 KB | 1,037 downloads
  • #2,267
  • Mar 4, 2018 11:53am Mar 4, 2018 11:53am
I understood what to do with sqrt(t).
1CandleRange = 1CR;
2CandleRange = sqrt(2)*1CR;
3CandleRange = sqrt(3)*1CR = sqrt(1.5)*2CR;
And so on.
So we can predict next x candle's range.
But it looks nice only when you look it on average data.
  • #2,268
  • Mar 4, 2018 12:28pm Mar 4, 2018 12:28pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} That is absolutely correct. {quote} That is not. For me is absolutely wrong. No offence. Just disagree. Pips are different. 50:50, but the trend pips are something like 2:1...
I updated my ZigZag analysis. And yes trends have 2x more pips then reversals. But to get benefit from it, you must know:
*where to enter, because trend can retrace on whatever retracement level;
*where upTrend High(downTrend Low) will be.
And if you enter on trend breakouts(at that moment it's 100% that this movement will be trend) the pips: trend vs reversals gets 50:50 with spread. Actually the result will be the same if you trade trend breakout in trend direction or against trend. And to trade against trend is easier you know where to enter and exit

ZigZag analysis is the hardest thing for me, it is so easy to get logical error and fake edge.
The funniest think, when I try to trade that fake edge on real time, it always works at that moment
  • #2,269
  • Mar 4, 2018 12:36pm Mar 4, 2018 12:36pm
Quoting IenDzi
{quote} I updated my ZigZag analysis. And yes trends have 2x more pips then reversals. But to get benefit from it, you must know: *where to enter, because trend can retrace on whatever retracement level; *where upTrend High(downTrend Low) will be. ZigZag analysis is the hardest thing for me, it is so easy to get logical error and fake edge. The funniest think, when I try to trade that fake edge on real time, it always works at that moment
I never quit understood "levels". All I see is a cluster of liquidity being exploited. There is no "where" only "when".
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,270
  • Mar 4, 2018 12:44pm Mar 4, 2018 12:44pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} I never quit understood "levels". All I see is a cluster of liquidity being exploited. There is no "where" only "when".
Yes, I know, I am working on timing now.
  • #2,271
  • Mar 4, 2018 8:02pm Mar 4, 2018 8:02pm
Quoting IenDzi
{quote} ZigZag analysis is the hardest thing for me, it is so easy to get logical error and fake edge. The funniest think, when I try to trade that fake edge on real time, it always works at that moment
Maybe ZigZag is not fake at all?
For me ZigZag is Queen, King is MA. MA-KING money from ZZ's breakouts is hard as hell, in general... It does not always work.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #2,272
  • Edited 10:09pm Mar 4, 2018 9:59pm | Edited 10:09pm
Quoting MetBo
{quote} JUST THINK ABOUT THIS! https://media.giphy.com/media/8vzk1L...vhvy/giphy.gif Price is a function of time

now that is kinda interesting. does it have any practical application?
  • #2,273
  • Mar 4, 2018 10:27pm Mar 4, 2018 10:27pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} now that is kinda interesting. does it have any practical application?
Yes. As much practical application as the Fibonacci Sequence with an extra dimension or two... Or three. Perhaps four when you start getting relativistic. Depends how much you decide to elucidate from it really.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,274
  • Mar 4, 2018 11:40pm Mar 4, 2018 11:40pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} now that is kinda interesting. does it have any practical application?
Yes
  • #2,275
  • Mar 5, 2018 3:55am Mar 5, 2018 3:55am
I recommend everyone to switch from FX to DAX30. No FX pair can compete with it in relation volatility/transaction costs.
  • #2,276
  • Mar 12, 2018 10:06am Mar 12, 2018 10:06am
Inserted Video
Newbie trader
  • #2,277
  • Mar 20, 2018 5:43am Mar 20, 2018 5:43am
I found something interesting. The bigger the range, the win% reduces. If 5p range has 70% win, after 30p it's 50%. This is on H1.
On daily candle I can't get anything above 55%.
So, this shows, that only small moves can be predicted. Is anyone got something similar?
  • #2,278
  • Mar 25, 2018 4:38pm Mar 25, 2018 4:38pm
Quoting MetBo
{quote} Yes
well

LOL
  • #2,279
  • Mar 29, 2018 9:43am Mar 29, 2018 9:43am
Do you have any more hints how to trade single candlestick? I know, we need to have reference point, but anyway it is hard to know where to enter, where to exit. Thank you for your help, hints, or whatever. Green pips to all.
  • #2,280
  • Mar 29, 2018 10:33am Mar 29, 2018 10:33am
Quoting chyldom
Do you have any more hints how to trade single candlestick? I know, we need to have reference point, but anyway it is hard to know where to enter, where to exit. Thank you for your help, hints, or whatever. Green pips to all.
Well its depend on the system, but if you have a reference point, you can project upwards and downwards a range.
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