Hey...what about Volume? | Page 15 | Forex Factory

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Hey...what about Volume?

  • #281
  • Feb 27, 2018 11:48am Feb 27, 2018 11:48am
Hello Friends...its been awhile since I've been able to post and I truly appreciate everyone who has stepped up to fill in the gap. I try to keep in touch with my cell. Today's price reaction has proved once again that sitting on your hands is sometimes the best thing you can do when trading. Let me show you EUR/USD - short:
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You may recall that I entered this short 4 weeks ago, and have been holding it ever since. It looks like it is just now starting to (FINALLY) pay off. This trade tested my patience. But using multiple time frames helped. Seeing that buying had completely exhausted on the weekly chart allowed me to hold this trade through an almost 100% retrace to retest my entry level. Now I have locked in a modest 100 pips on the aggregate position which is currently positive about 240 pips.

Lessons here are these:

  1. Multiple time frames helps with hold and continuation as well as direction
  2. Note the buying exhaustion on the weekly chart followed by a huge surge in selling
  3. Later note the anemic buying on the retest of the highs (weekly chart)
  4. Finally the on the daily chart any buying that occurs is weak with strong selling follow though.

We'll have to see if sellers can push price through the most recent daily low.

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  • #282
  • Mar 2, 2018 10:39am Mar 2, 2018 10:39am
Hello all,

Just thought I would give you all a heads up on a trade I have just entered...GBP/USD - Long
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I would hope by now this would seem self explanatory...so to try and generate some interest I will leave the screen shot like this and take questions.

I have entered on position with two more pending for a retest that I suspect may occur Monday early Asian session.

So tell me...do you see the three phases of bearish exhaustion on these charts?
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  • #283
  • Mar 4, 2018 4:33pm Mar 4, 2018 4:33pm
Hello Friends...just a quick note to follow up on my EUR/USD short...I was stopped out with about 100 pips on the aggregate on this latest reversal. Disappointing but at least profitable.
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  • #284
  • Mar 5, 2018 10:39am Mar 5, 2018 10:39am
Hello Friends...well I guess no one had any questions, none what so ever. So I will give an update on the current status of my GBP/USD long:
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Price reaction has moved in my favor and this position is positive 90+ pips. There remains very substantial levels to be breached however, and today's volume is muted (thus far). I have not yet ruled out the possibility that price may come back and retest this most recent low. I have left the pending orders in place and will re evaluate mid-week.
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  • #285
  • Mar 5, 2018 10:44am Mar 5, 2018 10:44am
Quoting v2vboni
"...can only enter a trade short if: 1) Price is above the Pivot when the next day begins. 2) Price has not yet touched the Pivot." based on op rule.. weekly pivot... price above the weekly pivot and never touch yet. EURUSD - M30 TF
I'm curious...I see you used many different indicators for your trading. Does volume play a role? It would appear you made a very nice scalp on this pair...congratulations. Did any of the commentary in this thread assist you in making your decision?
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  • #286
  • Mar 5, 2018 10:46am Mar 5, 2018 10:46am
Quoting DonPato
Hello Friends...well I guess no one had any questions, none what so ever. So I will give an update on the current status of my GBP/USD long: {image} Price reaction has moved in my favor and this position is positive 90+ pips. There remains very substantial levels to be breached however, and today's volume is muted (thus far). I have not yet ruled out the possibility that price may come back and retest this most recent low. I have left the pending orders in place and will re evaluate mid-week.
you are trading big time frame mostly trader like little chart trading u can share 15min 5min trading strategy share..

volume is best trading style

regards
scalper16
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  • #287
  • Mar 5, 2018 11:07am Mar 5, 2018 11:07am
Quoting scalper16
you are trading big time frame mostly trader like little chart trading u can share 15min 5min trading strategy share.. volume is best trading style regards scalper16
As I have explained many times on this thread, I trade very small time frames on futures markets NOT on the FX markets. My FX positions are too small to have access to a level 2 brokerage, and frankly I truly believe scalping the FX market on anything smaller than a 4-8 hr chart is a losers game because the entire market is NOT transparent. It is between banks, and not centralized. This brings me to my second point. The volume information in the FX market (again I have stated this "ad nauseam" here) is TICK volume and not "true" volume. This brings a decided disadvantage to scalpers using this information to trade with, especially during the gap times.

I trade large time frames because:

  1. The total tick volume for an entire day can be successfully extrapolated into a reliable delta (which I have done here) and then used on weekly, daily and monthly charts to develop positions that last between 1-2 weeks and render hundreds of pips (not 10-30)
  2. I use FX trading as a way to generate a superior return on a savings account apart from my daily futures trading which generates my daily/weekly income. Therefore I only need check the position and graphics one or twice a day, as I have time and this allows me to have a life outside my office.

I have not put forth any trading strategy or method on this thread and would never try to convince you that my strategy would work for you. The entire purpose of this thread (which would become clear if you read ALL of it) is to explore the idea of using tick volume to your advantage as an adjunct to what ever strategy you already use.

Again, I encourage you to please read the entire thread in its entirety to understand the purpose and evolution of this idea.

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  • #288
  • Mar 5, 2018 1:23pm Mar 5, 2018 1:23pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I'm curious...I see you used many different indicators for your trading. Does volume play a role? It would appear you made a very nice scalp on this pair...congratulations. Did any of the commentary in this thread assist you in making your decision?

OMG! my fault... too sleepy that time. wrong thread. I was reading your post and after that I was reading the other one. I got interested about your view on volumes. Sorry about that. YEs I did used (tick) volume as well (weekly average volume bar - last three bars). Then use 1 minute bar average of last three bars (70% of it, multiply by 2). Now, it is 3AM I hope I am on a correct thread..

I'm still on process of understanding your volume concept, and see how it goes.

Again sorry... about posting this on a wrong thread. I just deleted it.
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #289
  • Mar 5, 2018 1:52pm Mar 5, 2018 1:52pm
Quoting v2vboni
... YEs I did used (tick) volume as well (weekly average volume bar - last three bars). Then use 1 minute bar average of last three bars (70% of it, multiply by 2). ...
I would be curious to learn more about this concept... I'm sure there are many scalpers here that might be interested as well.

As far as"wrong thread" ... No worries any and all ideas in keeping with this theme (of how to best utiliza volumen) are welcome.
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  • #290
  • Mar 5, 2018 10:01pm Mar 5, 2018 10:01pm
Quoting Arbaaz
It won't really work. Volume is displaying past data, can't be used for future predictions like that. Not in FX especially.
I'm afraid nothing can predict the future. However we do live (and trade) on the moment of "right now" and evaluate conditions on "right now" in a chain of events that leads inextricably to the future...one "right now" moment at a time.

Each moment has variable conditions that, when aligned and combined with an understanding of the true structure of the market provide reasonable expectation of profit. This, when combined with a rational risk management strategy, creates a mathematical edge the creates profit on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis
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  • #291
  • Mar 6, 2018 3:11am Mar 6, 2018 3:11am
Quoting DonPato
The indicator at the bottom of these charts is what I am trying to reproduce here on spot fx {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hi Donpato,
The indicator at the bottom of the futures chart shows part of the indicator label as "pressure". Is it Buying Selling Pressure ? What is the complete name of the indicator ?
  • #292
  • Mar 6, 2018 8:03am Mar 6, 2018 8:03am
Quoting pooh123
{quote} Hi Donpato, The indicator at the bottom of the futures chart shows part of the indicator label as "pressure". Is it Buying Selling Pressure ? What is the complete name of the indicator ?
Pressure 1(a) is the name but you won't find it anywhere. I coded it myself specifically for my method of Trading. It shows volume delta as a percentage of a constant volume chart. It cannot be reproduced for fx..the indicator I'm using now on my FX charts is the closest I can come until the FX is centralized and transparent.
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  • #293
  • Mar 7, 2018 10:32am Mar 7, 2018 10:32am
Hello friends, a quick update on GBP/USD - long:
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Price seems to be stalling right about the anticipated level and in addition, volume has consistently dropped for each succeeding bullish candle. As today's price reaction (to this point) seems rather anemic, I have decided to lock in a small profit in case price retests the recent low. If I see a bearish signal in the next few days I will very likely stop and reverse, however, I feel more strongly that price will move quickly down to the low and retest there possibly forming a double bottom. If/when that happens I will be all over it...if it pushes through the low, I will stand aside and wait on the next bullish signal.
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  • #294
  • Mar 9, 2018 4:18pm Mar 9, 2018 4:18pm
Just wanted to thank everyone for this thread especially DonPato. I'm just getting started and all this is completely new to me. Spent the last few months reading a variety of books on technical analysis, Elliott waves, psychology of trading etc. Recently opened a demo account and was getting killed...had no strategy and was chasing candles essentially. Spent the better part of two days going over this thread again and again trying to figurer out basic concepts of market flow, volume and price. My head is still spinning but yesterday took my first informed position based on climax, exhaustion and absorption using tick data and when I got up today the price had turned and was up about 50 pips so I bailed out and checked it again this afternoon and would have gained about another twenty if I had held on but still feel great to have a basic approach to pursue and expand upon. If anyone knows of any good books , informative websites or additional threads for someone looking to learn please chime in...,Not trying to hijack the thread just say thanks!!!
  • #295
  • Mar 23, 2018 10:45am Mar 23, 2018 10:45am
Not hijacking at all...I am grateful someone out there wants to carry on a dialog. Please feel free to participate or ask questions. Happy to proffer my opinion...which is just that...opinion. To get you started lets see if you can identify the reasoning for this long trade.
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  • #296
  • Mar 31, 2018 11:27pm Mar 31, 2018 11:27pm
Hi Don Pato, once again thanks for the thread and taking the time. Interesting you should pick this chart as I was looking at it earlier this week and trying to determine the next move. I'm currently reading a book on Elliott wave and so my first take was that it's currently in a corrective phase and in the short term will correct at least to the 1.280 level and then turn from there. But looking at the way you analyze charts(much of it is still a puzzle)I believe the large red candlestick (third from the end) represents the climax phase and the next candle with strong tick data volume(that's all I have to use) but failing to close below the previous low and also having a small real body relative to the length of its shadow represents exhaustion and a pivot point. This would lead me to believe that a move to the upside is imminent but I still think the downside move has to finish first. Thoughts? I need to figure out how to copy and paste charts on here and draw lines and make comments but right now this is all I have. Thanks again.
  • #297
  • Apr 1, 2018 11:25am Apr 1, 2018 11:25am
Quoting Sully58
Hi Don Pato, once again thanks for the thread and taking the time. Interesting you should pick this chart as I was looking at it earlier this week and trying to determine the next move. I'm currently reading a book on Elliott wave and so my first take was that it's currently in a corrective phase and in the short term will correct at least to the 1.280 level and then turn from there. But looking at the way you analyze charts(much of it is still a puzzle)I believe the large red candlestick (third from the end) represents the climax phase and the...
Hey Sully...I had a very long (and in my opinion) informative post written and pushed the wrong button and lost all of it. So I must go now, but will try and recreate it again later this evening...I'm sorry..."fat finger" mistake
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  • #298
  • Apr 1, 2018 2:39pm Apr 1, 2018 2:39pm
OK...I will try this again, and hope it works this time...
Quoting Sully58
... I'm currently reading a book on Elliott wave and so my first take was that it's currently in a corrective phase and in the short term will correct at least to the 1.280 level and then turn from there...
I too studied Elliott Wave theory. I eventually found it frustrating and confusing. I'm sure it worked for Ralph Nelson Elliot, but I have been unable to make it work for me. I found it is unnecessarily too complicated and places a level of interference between the practitioner (technician) and the actual market. I think you (or anyone) would be much better served devoting your learning to the basics of how the market actually functions. What I call the fundamental "structure" of the market. This can be summed up in 4 elemental factors:

  1. Time - Which eventually creates an "urge to action", or the drive to participate in the market
  2. Order flow - which is a direct result of the previously mentioned "urge to action"
  3. Volume - works together with order flow but also measures the confidence of participation. If one is dubious of the position he/she takes in the market they will usually reduce the size of their order. Conversely if one is very confident of their position, that position size is generally larger.
  4. Price - the direct result of the previous three factors creates price and price movement. Price then creates a "feed back" into the start of these factors and a cycle (virtuous or vicious) begins

I feel that by learning to read and recognize the fluid nature of these fundamental factors one can better understand what is currently occurring and then SPECULATE about the future (near or distant) and take the appropriate action needed for one's best interest. While I'm on the subject...let us never forget that this business is called "speculation" for a reason. Nothing presented here can "predict" future price movements. NOTHING!!

Quoting Sully58
...But looking at the way you analyze charts(much of it is still a puzzle)I believe the large red candlestick (third from the end) represents the climax phase and the next candle with strong tick data volume(that's all I have to use) but failing to close below the previous low and also having a small real body relative to the length of its shadow represents exhaustion and a pivot point...
You are correct. The focus of this thread was to specifically deal with volume and its relationship to order flow and how we can use that even within the decentralized FX market. What I showed was multifaceted. The weekly chart (on the left) showed a rise above an area where buying had previously been absorbed. Then a return to that same area. The daily chart (on the right) showed the selling dominance which exhausted from one day to the next. I anticipated a change in the order flow and that is exactly what happened. The order flow went from selling dominance to balance. The selling retested the lows seen on that original chart but any selling in this area was absorbed. Any buying that ensued was short lived and is most likely shorts covering. A range is now in place which represents an equilibrium or sorts between buying and selling.
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Quoting Sully58
..This would lead me to believe that a move to the upside is imminent but I still think the downside move has to finish first. Thoughts? ... Thanks again.
You may be right (we just won't know until it happens). A move to the upside is what I am anticipating. It has shown NOT to be imminent. However the change in order flow is a step in the right direction. It at least signals the stall in selling dominance. Should price drift back into the 1.2950-1.2975 area, I would anticipate stops on shorts covering...and this would create a "whoosh" in buying pressure and send price higher. However, the opposite could also be true...which would threaten my stop. So we'll just have to wait and see how this plays out.
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  • #299
  • Apr 3, 2018 5:47pm Apr 3, 2018 5:47pm
Definetly on the right path. At lower timeframes intraday add OBV or cumulative deltas for “quality” of volume. Will help determine market makers accumulation (exhaustion, absorption). Also volume profile? Have you studied?

agree about wave theory and any price indicator. Rubbish the instos want you to be using. Helps them
accumulate your liquidity.

Do you intraday trade?
  • #300
  • Edited 10:03am Apr 4, 2018 9:22am | Edited 10:03am
Hi, DonPato!
Why do you use tick chart for futures trading?
Sorry for my English
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