I basically trade by looking for risk on or risk off markets (long eur/usd, short eur/usd}
Everyone was waiting for the U.S. cpi report on 2/14 @ 13:30 GMT. Because of the NFP, the thinking was if inflation surprised up it would be a big negative. Sure enough, the report come out high and the dollar got bought against everything (risk off, short eur/usd)
But I also look at the DAX and i see it goes from negative to pos within about 15-20 minutes. In other words, the DAX was moving in the risk on direction as currencies moved the other way. This is something I've seen frequently; the DAX is a good leading indicator for how ny will trade. (Of course, this excludes news that isn't scheduled to come out e.g. Mnuchin talking the dollar down)
Finally, the euro started moving up and I got long at 1.2320.
Everyone was waiting for the U.S. cpi report on 2/14 @ 13:30 GMT. Because of the NFP, the thinking was if inflation surprised up it would be a big negative. Sure enough, the report come out high and the dollar got bought against everything (risk off, short eur/usd)
But I also look at the DAX and i see it goes from negative to pos within about 15-20 minutes. In other words, the DAX was moving in the risk on direction as currencies moved the other way. This is something I've seen frequently; the DAX is a good leading indicator for how ny will trade. (Of course, this excludes news that isn't scheduled to come out e.g. Mnuchin talking the dollar down)
Finally, the euro started moving up and I got long at 1.2320.