Looking For Risk On Or Risk Off Really Worked Well On Feb 14th

I basically trade by looking for risk on or risk off markets (long eur/usd, short eur/usd}

Everyone was waiting for the U.S. cpi report on 2/14 @ 13:30 GMT. Because of the NFP, the thinking was if inflation surprised up it would be a big negative. Sure enough, the report come out high and the dollar got bought against everything (risk off, short eur/usd)

But I also look at the DAX and i see it goes from negative to pos within about 15-20 minutes. In other words, the DAX was moving in the risk on direction as currencies moved the other way. This is something I've seen frequently; the DAX is a good leading indicator for how ny will trade. (Of course, this excludes news that isn't scheduled to come out e.g. Mnuchin talking the dollar down)

Finally, the euro started moving up and I got long at 1.2320.

Risk on/risk off works well with other currencies besides EUR/USD. The Pound, Kiwi and Aussie also work the same way.

When markets are risk on, basically everything priced in dollars that isn't a haven when things are bad (gold, treasuries, Yen) go up, so expect to see oil and many other commodities rise as well.

I only trade USD/JPY in risk off markets because even though the Yen is a haven, given Japan's large current account surplus, the dollar can move wither way when things are going well.

The loonie is considered to be a commodity (oil) currency but to me it's a dollar play on risk. That's why we saw oil rise over 2% on Tuesday in spite of all the recent reports on more and more supply coming into the market with the U.S. expected to reach 11M bbls/day of output by the end of the year.

I recommend not to risk. I’m trading with this pair. Moreover, you won’t be able to benefit from this. And you said it yourself, trading like this excludes the news and you cannot forget about this.