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  • #15,241
  • Mar 2, 2018 6:55pm Mar 2, 2018 6:55pm
Quoting venividivici
Moves are made on creating beliefs, which to me means the more you are convinced the market is trending up..the more in my mind it means the banks / market makers are getting ready to drop it the other direction and capture some money. I have the feeling its going to be a big gap down by the market open, due to the convincing bullish action friday. But well I dont trade like this anymore...its fun to do story telling with trading.
First sentence is how I have seen the market when I am watching it and not relying on limit orders.

I am genuinely puzzled at what happened at the end of the day today with the Euro. That's why I'm here, reading. : I was expecting caution in holding long euro positions and it didn't manifest in any significant way particularly with the commodity currency euro pairs. Maybe there was profit taking which had some effect with Eur Jpy but in the commodity currency euro pairs: no restraint at all - just higher and higher. That kind of trader just is not me- no restraint into event risk. I almost couldn't believe what I was seeing but there it was. I'd prefer to sell Eur Usd for example, from higher levels.

Today, though, I am experimenting with a little sell trade in Eur Usd. I want to learn from what happens to it when the market opens on Sunday. I'd rather be involved than on the sidelines. I'd rather try that with Eur USD than any of the now higher than ever Eur Nzd or Eur Cad or probably Eur Aud.
.
Maybe it is true what I read somewhere today that the commodity currencies are going to be weaker going forward in the opinion of the analyst because emerging markets hold more appeal. This, as you wrote, is just another example of story. Story has been detrimental to my trading but I believe fundamentals esp interest rates and bond prices are critically important to add to technical levels. I keep trying to recommend actionforex. They entirely rely on technical in their Weekly analyses. Their levels have panned out much more often than not - the more far out in time, the better the entry of course. But anyone who trades fx would do well to check them daily as they provide mid-day updates.
  • #15,242
  • Mar 2, 2018 10:42pm Mar 2, 2018 10:42pm
Have a great weekend everyone!
Zip
  • #15,243
  • Mar 3, 2018 1:18am Mar 3, 2018 1:18am
Daily Outlook and Sweetspot Levels for Monday

  1. Chart below is very simple:

    1. I am focused at 1.2326 equilibrium level. Once above bulls have power, otherwise bearish!!!!
    2. A daily close above 1.2373 is a must for bullish continuation!
    3. A daily close below 1.2281 is a must for more bearish price action!!!
    4. General trend is bullish but it also might be in shifting mode back to bearish (long term speaking and as long as price stays below 1.2373)

I hope it helps and simplifies the current situation..

Happy Weekends to All..

Stay Green

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #15,244
  • Mar 3, 2018 4:02am Mar 3, 2018 4:02am
Let’s see how it reacts to Italian elections...
  • #15,245
  • Mar 3, 2018 7:18am Mar 3, 2018 7:18am
im still on bearish side till 1.2555 , lets see what happen next week.
  • #15,246
  • Mar 3, 2018 10:16am Mar 3, 2018 10:16am
Current look at the daily chart with Fibs colored in. Looks like it could go either way, but my current bias is bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,247
  • Mar 3, 2018 10:50am Mar 3, 2018 10:50am
Quoting Neil0163
I’m not perfect at Elliot but I’ve used your C point as the end of my impulsive wave A as there was more of a clear correction from that point, From your B I’ve not classed that as a leg as the market didn’t really pull back rather stayed in limbo without significant correction. I could be wrong but that’s how I’ve drawnt it. tried to quote your post but not sure where it’s gone Stefx
Was doing some rethinking. Ill upload it tomorrow. Grtz
What's that smell? ---- I smell money!
  • #15,248
  • Mar 3, 2018 11:55am Mar 3, 2018 11:55am
Daily chart shows bearish divergence based on MACD i go for kill on all rallies on upside
  • #15,249
  • Mar 3, 2018 3:20pm Mar 3, 2018 3:20pm
Wish I was in front of my laptop!!! ...the shooter in front of the whitehouse, the TrumpDump of another tariff threat on Eoropean car makers & the Italian elections... dollar seems like she might be more negative beginning next week, possible bull action on EUR/USD short term..?
First they ask WHY you're wasting your time, then they ask HOW you did it!?
  • #15,250
  • Mar 3, 2018 11:07pm Mar 3, 2018 11:07pm
I think any immediate movements would be caused by the Germany coalition and Italian election results, not sure how techs will play out.

Anyone with an idea when the results would be announced (in how many hours)?

Thanks.
  • #15,251
  • Mar 3, 2018 11:23pm Mar 3, 2018 11:23pm
Quoting pro-trading
Germany in less than 3 hours Italy in 12 hours
Thanks
  • #15,252
  • Mar 3, 2018 11:29pm Mar 3, 2018 11:29pm
My eur usd ptz/key area based on order block....view...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Say something meaningful or Silence!!
  • #15,253
  • Mar 4, 2018 2:45am Mar 4, 2018 2:45am
(Reuters) - Members of Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) voted in favour of entering a coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives, German media reported on Sunday (March 04) after a postal ballot.. . If confirmed, the vote would clear the way for a re-run of the "grand coalition" that has governed Germany since 2013, putting an end to more than four months of political uncertainty in Europe's largest economy.
  • #15,254
  • Mar 4, 2018 3:05am Mar 4, 2018 3:05am
Quoting MoneyFocus
I think any immediate movements would be caused by the Germany coalition and Italian election results, not sure how techs will play out. Anyone with an idea when the results would be announced (in how many hours)? Thanks.
Quite often as those elections just confirm the mess of the euro zone, € is down Sunday at the open (10pm in Paris) and recovers by the end of the Asian session when everybody remembers that they don’t care. So if € were to slide in the 1,2270 area I would close my shorts and expect it to bounce back to 1,2330.
  • #15,255
  • Mar 4, 2018 8:41am Mar 4, 2018 8:41am
I em waiting berish start of the week, because i see on level were price is now 2 reasons: Often tested area, + berish hiden divergence... if price manage to come back UP then will be chance to see another brick in the (bullish) wall Good Sunday to all of you.
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  • #15,256
  • Mar 4, 2018 9:18am Mar 4, 2018 9:18am
Looking like Italy election will get a hung parliament with Silvio will be the king maker. In last weeks announcement by him that he will send 600k asylums out of country, sounds scary for both Italy as well as to Euro. Let’s wait to see the exit pool report. Already have one short EurUsd at 1.2326 with guaranteed SL at 1.2358.
  • #15,257
  • Mar 4, 2018 9:22am Mar 4, 2018 9:22am
Quoting surya2k
Looking like Italy election will get a hung parliament with Silvio will be the king maker. In last weeks announcement by him that he will send 600k asylums out of country, sounds scary for both Italy as well as to Euro. Let’s wait to see the exit pool report. Already have one short EurUsd at 1.2326 with guaranteed SL at 1.2358.
That is alot of speculation along with conspiracy theories xD.

Eur is only getting better and better telling yourself otherwise it's might be pulling other people down with you do please refrain from saying stuff like that without proper quotes.
  • #15,258
  • Mar 4, 2018 9:48am Mar 4, 2018 9:48am
Quoting Windstrown
{quote} That is alot of speculation along with conspiracy theories xD. Eur is only getting better and better telling yourself otherwise it's might be pulling other people down with you do please refrain from saying stuff like that without proper quotes.
I find your reaction to his post laughable no offense. You are concern someone posting in public forum what he thinks and that may impact other people's decision what to do in trading?
Lets rewind this a little.One must trade based on Market live chart and PA should dictate what to do not random public forum poster and should anyone follow then he/she must be an idiot and is beyond your concern.

To add more
Euro could drop to 1.20 by March 20 before Feds rate decision and then could go higher after so you are not wrong Euro appreciating longer term but he is not wrong selling either. Just my thoughts.Having bigger picture in mind is helpful but in forex price can range for months before break out.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #15,259
  • Mar 4, 2018 9:57am Mar 4, 2018 9:57am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I find your reaction to his post laughable no offense. You are concern someone posting in public forum what he thinks and that may impact other people's decision what to do in trading? Lets rewind this a little.One must trade based on Market live chart and PA should dictate what to do not random public forum poster and should anyone follow then he/she must be an idiot and is beyond your concern.
I don't know what is laughable there creating multiple accounts and go though all the major retail websites to try and sway the sentiment is common, and no offense taken. It is beyond my concern true. I'll refrain from commenting on these crappy posts. best regards
  • #15,260
  • Mar 4, 2018 10:13am Mar 4, 2018 10:13am
Quoting Windstrown
{quote} I don't know what is laughable there creating multiple accounts and go though all the major retail websites to try and sway the sentiment is common, and no offense taken. It is beyond my concern true. I'll refrain from commenting on these crappy posts. best regards
No offense to anyone. Where did you get that I have multiple accounts? I didn’t have a single account other than here. Before pointing finger at others, please look at yourself. I am having this account since 2009, much earlier than you. My post was nothing but the current sentiment at Italy election, which will have impact in near term to Eurozone. I have guaranteed SL 20 pips at 1.2358, which means I have covered my risk, where did you find it’s crappy?
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