Hanover replies to PMs

Try this thread. The indicator's MQ4 file was written before Feb 2014 and hence might need compiling using this. (Also see this). I've never used this indicator but it sounds like it will do what you're asking.

[EDIT] I've compiled the (supposedly latest) version in post #23 of that thread for you and attached the EX4 below.

Respected Hanover Sir ,
With your vast experience and knowledge would you be kind enought to post the most accurate trend trading indicator that you have come accross till date and what is the best method & system to use it please Your Help , Cooperation & coordination will be highly appreciated

Warm Regards

What is the best moving average (or price-following indicator)?

I'm not a big fan of moving averages (reasons below), hence you would possibly be better to ask somebody else.

However, my views, for whatever they're worth, are as follows:

#1. Trend following indicators lag price, and price lags sentiment. Hence using an indicator puts you at least two steps behind where the real action is, and in an industry where speed of access to quality info can provide a competitive advantage. More info here.

#2. The bottom line is that you must enter your trade on a price candle. Any MA (or price-following indicator) can be calibrated to give you a entry signal on an earlier candle (following a swing point) by using a smaller period, or a later entry by using a longer period (examples here; see screenshots of 1.jpg and 2.jpg below). For example, price will cross over a 10 period MA earlier than it will cross over a 20 period MA. Everything else being equal, an earlier entry will get you in at a 'better' price, giving higher RR, but you'll probably get more false signals, lowering your win rate commensurately; while a later entry achieves the reverse (more here). You can also achieve an earlier entry by using nonlinear MAs like Jurik, Tillson, Hull (also here) or non-lag. These indicators are designed to give less lag and overshoot, without compromising smoothness; but in my experience they don't necessarily give more reliable signals. More on indicator types here.

#3. When using any trend following indicator -- including moving averages -- to provide entry/exit signals, you will make money if markets trend far enough, often enough, and/or are 'in sync' with the indicator that you are using; you will lose money during sideways periods, or whenever the indicator falls out of sync with the price movement. If you investigate many years' worth of changing markets, then you will probably find that any given price-following indicator is in sync with the price movement some of the time, and out of sync the rest of the time.

#4. Unless there is some kind of self fulfilling prophecy -- for example a large number of heavyweight traders all have faith in the same MA, and this faith causes them all to place orders around it -- then MAs will have limited predictive value (more here and here). The same applies to pretty much every other indicator. IMO that's because indicators are generally an effect rather than a cause.

#5. As opposed to being signal generators, indicators (including MAs) can be useful if they highlight or summarize price action that wouldn't otherwise be obvious simply by looking at the candles themselves (more here).

Sorry, that's probably not what you wanted to hear. But my answer to your question is that I don't believe any one MA indicator is necessarily much better than any other, for the above reasons. The only thing that I would add is that a non-repainting indicator is generally better than a repainting one.


1.jpg:

2.jpg:

[EDIT] I've posted links to a 'Swiss army knife' MA indicator (allows 26 different types of MAs) and also Guppy MMA. Latest EX4s of these are attached below also (you might need to delete their MQ4 files, and then restart MT4, to get them to run correctly).

Which Is The Best Moving Average? Test Results Reveal The Truth
http://jbmarwood.com/which-is-the-best-moving-average/

"Conclusions
When looking at the range of results, it’s clear that we can come to two conclusions. Firstly, longer term moving average crossovers work better than short-term crossovers. This is likely because they produce fewer whipsaws.
Second, newer and more complex moving averages appear to be no better at finding trends than the more traditional moving averages.
No doubt indicator developers will insist that their parameters be changed, to better reflect how their product is intended to be used. There may be some truth to that. Indicators such as GMMA and least squares are not necessarily intended to be used in this manner.
However, altering the parameters in such a way could be construed as curve-fitting and would lead to unreliable analysis.
Personally, the conclusions confirm what I thought all along. Simple moving averages work just as well as complex ones at finding trends, and the trusted, exponential moving average is best."

=======

Various Moving Averages....
https://forex-station.com/viewtopic....27#p1295353827

Thanks for posting the link to Mr Marwood's research. It looks like his tests were run on the S&P, as opposed to currency pairs. I don't know to what extent stocks might move differently to currencies, although it makes sense that there would be some significant differences, perhaps caused by some of the items I described here. However it's hard to guess the way in which any differences might affect his results and conclusions.

I'm replying here because I don't wish to help prolong a thread that draws attention to suicide.
Good post IMO.

I won't elaborate, as I've already expressed my views, and I've no wish to repeat them ad nauseam, like the skeptics do. No doubt they have their reasons.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR WONDERFUL EXPLAINATION SIR BE BLESSED & HAPPY ALWAYS

Hello Hanover, 1000 posts, that is quite a feat to achieve. This thread is pretty much a mini book it would seem. There's a lot of stimulus here regarding financial independence in general.

I have a question you might have insights on.
They say you should backtest and forward test a strategy before you go live. This seems contradictory. As at the end of the forward testing period, (assuming tiny risk), you are practically back to wear you started, except now you have backtested for a longer period. Basically once you are are done forward testing, that forward test period serves as a backtested period.
Eg. Backtest 6 months of data, then forward test 1 month of data. At the end of that 1 month of forward testing, it is the same as having 7 months of back-tested data.


Thus I don't see the point.
Any thoughts?

https://www.forexfactory.com/misc.ph...osted&t=346227

which version of currency strength meter is the best?

Good question, and yes, fwiw I tend to agree with you: all data, whether back or forward, eventually becomes 'historical' in its nature. It also raises the question as to what extent you can use any form of past data to predict the future. Use too little data, you run the risk of a lack of statistical validity; use, too much, and you run the risk that the oldest data might not accurately represent current market conditions. However, one point: live testing will likely be more accurate than either demo or backtest as it involves real broker/market costs (spread, slippage, etc).

And of course much depends on the concepts/phenomena that you're examining within the data: does it actually have a gravitational effect on sentiment/price movement, and could hence potentially provide some kind of robust 'edge'; or is it merely a 'red herring' that will lead to the analyst being 'fooled by randomness'?
_______________________
See this, also the links in the post here.

At the risk of sounding negative, I found this post by Sis.yphus (in an excellent thread imho, btw), and the linked study, very sobering. Especially when we consider that retail trading involves additional significant difficulties:

1. Methodology: Finding a robust methodological edge in an environment that is highly complex, dynamic, fickle, and reasonably 'efficient', and for which probabilities can't be precisely calculated; where unexpected cataclysmic or 'black swan' events can potentially occur (making full Kelly too dangerous for trading, btw); and where no edge can be absolutely guaranteed to prevail indefinitely.

2. Liquidity: The trader is competing continuously against skilled, aggressive opponents in a (pseudo)zero sum game, whereas the coin used in the study has no ulterior motivation, and each participant's source of potential income is unaffected by the results of his peers.

3. Psychology: Trading involves fear of real and personal financial loss (whereas the participants in the study were gifted their starting $25, as free, expendable cash).

4. The outcome of a coin toss is instantaneous, whereas individual trades unfold gradually over time, creating greater potential for tantalizing mental uncertainty, and during which new events can instantly change the surveyable 'landscape'.

5. Operational: Possible broker related risks (mischief; insolvency; IT-related outages; latency issues; ......).

And probably other reasons............

Given all of this, it's little wonder that the number of retail traders who enjoy consistent long-term success is extremely small.

why currency pairs [EURUSD / EURHKD] have the biggest correlation even on a small timeframe?

I don't know; I have never studied or traded HKD. If there is long-term statistical correlation, then I assume there could be economic reasons for correlation between USD and HKD.

Also, EURHKD possibly trades on (relatively) thin volumes, giving any correlations involving this pair less statistical validity.

Hi Hanover,
Do you have a Demand and Supply indicator that has accumulation candles incorporated that shows all the accumulation candles when applies to the charts. Thank you Hanover.

Sorry, I don't specifically have an indicator that plots accumulation patterns. To achieve this, a programmer would need the mathematical formula for accumulation -- which is possibly interpreted differently by different traders -- and also instructions on how it should be displayed.

FWIW I use two S/D indicators and three 'Better Volume' indicators, as shown on the M15 chart below (confluences are explained further here). All of the files needed to produce this chart, including the template, are in the attached zip file. I look for (what I believe are) institutional accumulation patterns manually.

Hi, is it possible to backtest EA based on currency strength indicator (this or this)? If not, is there a way to backtest either of these indicators manually?

Unfortunately neither of these indicators maintain any historical data, so there is no easy way to use them in a backtest.

How to beat the lottery

Here is an article about a couple who made several million by finding a way of arbitraging the Massachusetts State Lottery.
(Thanks to my friend John A for sending me the link).

HI Hanover
i have your indicator Supdemv2
But I could not merge the Timefime areas
How to do it
Is it settings?


plz screenshoot you settings