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Forex 10 Bar Strategy

  • #221
  • Feb 28, 2018 9:11am Feb 28, 2018 9:11am
Hi Zondervan

Are you still using a manual method to determine what pairs are trade-able? I noticed several threads where there we inconsistent determination about the method? I am happy to help find out the discrepancies between the methods.

Also I noticed you filter out some of the pairs. What exactly are you using to filter certain pairs?
  • #222
  • Feb 28, 2018 12:42pm Feb 28, 2018 12:42pm
Quoting yalgaar
Hi Zondervan Are you still using a manual method to determine what pairs are trade-able? I noticed several threads where there we inconsistent determination about the method? I am happy to help find out the discrepancies between the methods. Also I noticed you filter out some of the pairs. What exactly are you using to filter certain pairs?
Hi yalgaar, I have been thinking about the method and why others are getting different trading pairs to me. I'm pretty sure it has to do with broker close prices (especially the first candle of the day). So I have been experimenting the last couple of days with setting the 10 bar strategy one hour after London Open. So the strategy does not use the first candle of the day, but includes the first candle of London Open. This seems so far to not need any filtering of trades and the results (so far) have been outstanding.

In general I would filter trades that seem to go against themselves e.g buying EURAUD selling EURNZD but have not needed to filter trades if setting the strategy to open 1 hour later.

So could you please try the strategy but set jagzuk's pin v1_03 with setting close> Prev. close to trigger one hour after London Open. (Let me know if you have any questions regarding set up)

Then could you please screen shot your PIN's selected pairs. Thanks.

In fact if there are others following this thread, can I ask you to do the same, so we can check if we are all getting the same or similar signals (and hopefully good results!)
  • #223
  • Feb 28, 2018 1:39pm Feb 28, 2018 1:39pm
Quoting Zondervan
{quote} Hi yalgaar, I have been thinking about the method and why others are getting different trading pairs to me. I'm pretty sure it has to do with broker close prices (especially the first candle of the day). So I have been experimenting the last couple of days with setting the 10 bar strategy one hour after London Open. So the strategy does not use the first candle of the day, but includes the first candle of London Open. This seems so far to not need any filtering of trades and the results (so far) have been outstanding. In general I would...
Hi Zondervan so you have been testing and had better results opening at LO +1?

I will change the pin from 10 -> 11 and set the EAX to open LO +1, and see if it makes a difference cos my suggestions and results have been pretty different to yours so far.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #224
  • Feb 28, 2018 4:12pm Feb 28, 2018 4:12pm
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} Hi Zondervan so you have been testing and had better results opening at LO +1? I will change the pin from 10 -> 11 and set the EAX to open LO +1, and see if it makes a difference cos my suggestions and results have been pretty different to yours so far.
Yes that is correct, change the PIN to 1 hour later (LO +1). It will be interesting to see if our trading pairs are the same or at least very similar. It will be a bonus also if the trades are more profitable and no filtering is required. Will have to test to see - I have only traded this way for the past two days so it is early days.
  • #225
  • Feb 28, 2018 4:58pm Feb 28, 2018 4:58pm
Quoting Zondervan
{quote} Hi yalgaar, I have been thinking about the method and why others are getting different trading pairs to me. I'm pretty sure it has to do with broker close prices (especially the first candle of the day). So I have been experimenting the last couple of days with setting the 10 bar strategy one hour after London Open. So the strategy does not use the first candle of the day, but includes the first candle of London Open. This seems so far to not need any filtering of trades and the results (so far) have been outstanding. In general I would...
Thanks for your reply. I did some visual comparison of various trades you have listed in many examples you have provided. I realized that the difference is for sure due to different brokers. But I noticed this is not just mostly first candle. This has been other candles as well. Usually candles that look like doji if not perfect doji.
  • #226
  • Feb 28, 2018 5:03pm Feb 28, 2018 5:03pm
I also wanted to ask you 1 more question about this method.

How did you come up with this method? What is the reasoning why it may work? My understanding is that we are comparing market sentiments of certain currencies using USD as a base and based on that we are making decision of cross pairs. But you are doing this using 10 bars and not price movement of those 10 bars.
This could mean that many times you could have more bullish bars but the sentiment may still be bearish....and vice versa. I wonder what is your reasoning for counting the bars rather than using price movement for those 10 hours?
  • #227
  • Edited 3:15am Mar 1, 2018 2:59am | Edited 3:15am
Quoting yalgaar
I also wanted to ask you 1 more question about this method. How did you come up with this method? What is the reasoning why it may work? My understanding is that we are comparing market sentiments of certain currencies using USD as a base and based on that we are making decision of cross pairs. But you are doing this using 10 bars and not price movement of those 10 bars. This could mean that many times you could have more bullish bars but the sentiment may still be bearish....and vice versa. I wonder what is your reasoning for counting the bars...
I can't remember now why I thought of trying this method. I always just think of ideas even if they seem a bit crazy and then test them out. I have developed a number of trading systems that have been profitable, but require a lot of number crunching on a spreadsheet, which I do manually (I wish I could code!!). I have even developed a bunch of indicators using an excel spreadsheet that work pretty well, but getting access to data is my main problem and entering data manually is very time consuming and tiring.

The logic behind the bullish bar count:
-When a 1 hour bar closes - it means that within that one hour time period, one currency ends as the winner and the other as the loser (unless it ends even, in which case I don't count it)
-Every second the currencies battle it out against each other- and at the end of each hour there will usually be a winner and loser and if you aggregate all this data you could rank each currency every hour.
-Over time (10 bars) the number of wins and losses are counted and recorded - so the strategy is not looking at price but looking at number of wins or losses one currency has against a common adversary (in this case USD). It is simply another way at looking at currency strength.
-Currencies are then matched up and given an expected number EUR vs GBP for example
-Then the actual currency pair is matched against the expected number and if it is greater then the market might be gearing up to buy. If it is less than expected, then maybe the market is gearing up to sell.

I believe the market isn't really random - it is controlled to some extent - and it is our job to figure out how to be on the right side of the market
  • #228
  • Mar 1, 2018 3:03am Mar 1, 2018 3:03am
Quoting yalgaar
I also wanted to ask you 1 more question about this method. How did you come up with this method? What is the reasoning why it may work? My understanding is that we are comparing market sentiments of certain currencies using USD as a base and based on that we are making decision of cross pairs. But you are doing this using 10 bars and not price movement of those 10 bars. This could mean that many times you could have more bullish bars but the sentiment may still be bearish....and vice versa. I wonder what is your reasoning for counting the bars...
Hi Zondervan
Thank you very much for your interesting ideas which I am following for a while. The question posed by yalgaarabove is exactly what's been on my mind for a while. What is the logic behind it?
Best of luck with thread.
Brian
  • #229
  • Mar 1, 2018 3:05am Mar 1, 2018 3:05am
Ok so these are my trades for today:

It's quite a lot of trades, and I didn't filter out any pairs. Will see how this goes.

I also have screenshot the EA PIN numbers found in the experts tab
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  • #230
  • Mar 1, 2018 3:17am Mar 1, 2018 3:17am
Quoting Brian214
{quote} Hi Zondervan Thank you very much for your interesting ideas which I am following for a while. The question posed by yalgaarabove is exactly what's been on my mind for a while. What is the logic behind it? Best of luck with thread. Brian
Thanks for your answer
  • #231
  • Mar 1, 2018 3:58am Mar 1, 2018 3:58am
Quoting Zondervan
Ok so these are my trades for today: It's quite a lot of trades, and I didn't filter out any pairs. Will see how this goes. I also have screenshot the EA PIN numbers found in the experts tab ...
Two different brokers. Both have a difference. They also have a difference with you. 4-5 differences are many. Something must be done with this pin. I already wrote about it, but the answer was negative.
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  • #232
  • Mar 1, 2018 4:45am Mar 1, 2018 4:45am
And this is already very puzzling. The broker, who is GMT, changed the pins to 10 hours and only got two difference with Zondervan.
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  • #233
  • Mar 1, 2018 5:54am Mar 1, 2018 5:54am
Quoting Zondervan
Ok so these are my trades for today: It's quite a lot of trades, and I didn't filter out any pairs. Will see how this goes. I also have screenshot the EA PIN numbers found in the experts tab {image} {image}
Nope so setting the pin at LO +1 and for EAX to opwn LO +1 did not make any difference. I have very different suggestions than you, abut half of them actually.

I't a pity for these discrepancies as I really liked this strategy ideology.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #234
  • Mar 1, 2018 8:19am Mar 1, 2018 8:19am
Quoting Zondervan
{quote} I can't remember now why I thought of trying this method. I always just think of ideas even if they seem a bit crazy and then test them out. I have developed a number of trading systems that have been profitable, but require a lot of number crunching on a spreadsheet, which I do manually (I wish I could code!!). I have even developed a bunch of indicators using an excel spreadsheet that work pretty well, but getting access to data is my main problem and entering data manually is very time consuming and tiring. The logic behind the bullish...
Thanks for your detailed explanation. I really appreciate you taking the time and effort.
However I am still missing the basic point. Your method concludes sentiments based on number of bullish bars. But that just does not mean accurate sentiments. Also remember there is no such thing as candles and bars in reality...there is only prices at each tick. There is no fixed interval of each tick. But that is a totally different subject. What I am trying to say is you deriving market sentiment of a currency based on number of Bullish bars could totally be misleading. If you are still seeing positive results I am very happy for you...I am just thinking it may be a mere co-incidence.

Let me give you an example of what I mean. Lets say your first candle is bullish by 5 pips. This means the market sentiments is bullish which is perfect. Now if you 2nd candle is bearish with 20 pips. Your 3rd candle is bullish again with 5 pips. Based on your method the market sentiments are bullish since you have 2 bullish candles and only 1 bearish candles. But this would be far from truth! The market is surely not bullish and it surely is bearish since the market price is fallen since last 3 candles by 10 pips.
  • #235
  • Mar 1, 2018 9:05am Mar 1, 2018 9:05am
Quoting yalgaar
{quote} Thanks for your detailed explanation. I really appreciate you taking the time and effort. However I am still missing the basic point. Your method concludes sentiments based on number of bullish bars. But that just does not mean accurate sentiments. Also remember there is no such thing as candles and bars in reality...there is only prices at each tick. There is no fixed interval of each tick. But that is a totally different subject. What I am trying to say is you deriving market sentiment of a currency based on number of Bullish bars could...
And what is it? Come on, count the bars, candles or lines. Just to mention that 9 and 13 are important numbers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #236
  • Mar 1, 2018 12:02pm Mar 1, 2018 12:02pm
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} Nope so setting the pin at LO +1 and for EAX to opwn LO +1 did not make any difference. I have very different suggestions than you, abut half of them actually. I't a pity for these discrepancies as I really liked this strategy ideology.
I was hoping for a more consistent result. It goes to show that brokers have quite different close prices throughout the day from each other. However, so far the change in time is working extremely well for me. 3 positive days in a row now, without having to filter any trades. Obviously 3 days is not much in the way of sample data, but it is still encouraging. Thanks for trying out the strategy, all the best with your own trading.
  • #237
  • Mar 1, 2018 12:21pm Mar 1, 2018 12:21pm
Quoting yalgaar
{quote} Thanks for your detailed explanation. I really appreciate you taking the time and effort. However I am still missing the basic point. Your method concludes sentiments based on number of bullish bars. But that just does not mean accurate sentiments. Also remember there is no such thing as candles and bars in reality...there is only prices at each tick. There is no fixed interval of each tick. But that is a totally different subject. What I am trying to say is you deriving market sentiment of a currency based on number of Bullish bars could...
Hi yalgaar,

Yes I understand your point of view regarding sentiment and of course you are right. But remember the system is based on comparison of a currency vs USD and the actual currency pair. The strategy simply asks the question- is there a discrepancy between the 2 equations? If there is a discrepancy between the 2 equations, does that say anything about future price? That is what I am testing.
  • #238
  • Mar 1, 2018 12:22pm Mar 1, 2018 12:22pm
Quoting juraia
{quote} And what is it? Come on, count the bars, candles or lines. Just to mention that 9 and 13 are important numbers. {image}
Hi juraia,

I'm sorry I don't understand what you are trying to say here in regards to the important numbers being 9 and 13
  • #239
  • Mar 1, 2018 1:28pm Mar 1, 2018 1:28pm
Quoting Zondervan
{quote} I was hoping for a more consistent result. It goes to show that brokers have quite different close prices throughout the day from each other. However, so far the change in time is working extremely well for me. 3 positive days in a row now, without having to filter any trades. Obviously 3 days is not much in the way of sample data, but it is still encouraging. Thanks for trying out the strategy, all the best with your own trading.
What's strange is that both of our brokers are AU based and have the same server times, so in theory should have the same prices.

I'll keep trying and see how it goes with my suggestions, and hopefully it can still be profitable.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #240
  • Mar 1, 2018 2:53pm Mar 1, 2018 2:53pm
Quoting Zondervan
{quote} Hi juraia, I'm sorry I don't understand what you are trying to say here in regards to the important numbers being 9 and 13
Nothing in particular. Just your strategy is very similar to Bloomberg Technical Analysis. I use these indicators a little. They are for longer-term trading. I use them when I'm likely to leave open deals on Friday. Probably this will help:
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Bloomberg_Technical_Analysis - DeMark Indicators.pdf   468 KB | 430 downloads
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