D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Member | 1,907 Posts
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
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Disliked{quote} Why asking when you can just check by yourself? It took me less than 5 min: {image} Note that the "hit rate" is very high because the open price is usually very close to the pivot like 5-10 pips on H1. If there is an edge from knowing this 75%+ it is perhaps not at all by targeting the pivot from the open. For instance buying S1 in up trend and setting a TP at or above the pivot because you know price is supposed to reach it with high probability. The question becomes: what is the conditional probability of the price hitting pivot given...Ignored
DislikedUsing pivots can be profitable, particularly where there are other confluence factors. Sis has come up with a set of rules and those interested in the rules should test them out. KPIgnored
Disliked{quote} The only way out of this problem imho is to define a different, dynamic level above which one just buys and below it just sells. This could be for example, the daily vwap. Then to aim at the pivot (if it happens to be on the correct side of the vwap) with R:R 1:1 or something. This might work. kIgnored
DislikedA lot of Yen pairs are currently creating some nice opportunity for the next 24 hours.Ignored
DislikedTried to establish Pearson r between the pair and its components for every pivot period...hmm. {image}Ignored
DislikedSorry to clog your thread, Sis, but pivots are statistically interesting: no matter what sample sets I choose (e.g. here I chose 22 bars or 22 min on a M1 chart), the pivot hit rate remains at approx. 75%. It reminds me of the scaling laws discovered by Richard Olsen a.o (https://www.researchgate.net/publica...e_FX_coastline). {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} That is to be expected as the pivot calculation gives a large (1/3) weight to the Close value. If it gave this weight to the Open instead of the Close, I would expect a significantly lower hit rate percentage... kIgnored
DislikedSorry to clog your thread, Sis, but pivots are statistically interesting: no matter what sample sets I choose (e.g. here I chose 22 bars or 22 min on a M1 chart), the pivot hit rate remains at approx. 75%. It reminds me of the scaling laws discovered by Richard Olsen a.o (https://www.researchgate.net/publica...e_FX_coastline). {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Likely a better set of rules would be to enter in the (Close-Open) direction in the (25% of) cases when (H+L+C)/3 is not reached. SL could simply be at (H+L+O)/3. Stop and reverse when the entry condition is satisfied in the opposite direction. Cheers, kIgnored