The Skill Check | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

No skill in trading! 107 replies

Poll: Is successful trading more dependent on skill than luck? 149 replies

The most important technical skill to learn 12 replies

Need luck or skill for trading? 232 replies

Need suggestion to improve skill 35 replies

Attachments: The Skill Check
Exit Attachments

The Skill Check

  • #21
  • Feb 24, 2018 4:36pm Feb 24, 2018 4:36pm
Good to see you back Sis, enjoyed you Fundamental trading thread. I am always fascinated by pivots, the strategy is similar to Davit's Pivot trading thread in terms of concept.

I have installed the indicator but the weekly and monthly setting seems not to be working.

Will keep an eye in here. Bravo
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #22
  • Feb 24, 2018 4:45pm Feb 24, 2018 4:45pm
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Why asking when you can just check by yourself? It took me less than 5 min: {image} Note that the "hit rate" is very high because the open price is usually very close to the pivot like 5-10 pips on H1. If there is an edge from knowing this 75%+ it is perhaps not at all by targeting the pivot from the open. For instance buying S1 in up trend and setting a TP at or above the pivot because you know price is supposed to reach it with high probability. The question becomes: what is the conditional probability of the price hitting pivot given...
Nice to have another verify what I am saying so people don't think I made the numbers up. Love a lot of your work around the forum too btw.

You are correct. There is no edge with this in terms of just buying at the open right away and targeting the pivot. The spreads are too high, the opportunity at that point is too small and most of all, that would take no skill. There are a number of ways you can gain an edge though, it will just take some skill.
  • #23
  • Feb 24, 2018 4:53pm Feb 24, 2018 4:53pm
Quoting KeenPips
Using pivots can be profitable, particularly where there are other confluence factors. Sis has come up with a set of rules and those interested in the rules should test them out. KP

Thanks Keen.

To everyone else reading this: The entire point of my rules, is for people to build additional entries rules on top of them, to find the edge. If they want to share them here, they can, if not no biggie.


But the point is, the Skill Check system, as posted, is incomplete. Each trader needs to make it their own by refining the entries with whatever tools they like. This is the skill check part.

I already know a few different ways to abuse these pivots. However, I choose not to share them. I may share a few of the ways I don't trade anymore but until then, don't ask and don't expect anything.
  • #24
  • Edited 10:15pm Feb 24, 2018 8:26pm | Edited 10:15pm
SOMETHING NEW AND INSTRESTING ABOUT THIS THREAD........ BUT IN MY THOUGHT, THE KNOWLEDGE OF PRICE ACTION AND UNDERSTANDING ABOUT MARKET BEHAVIOUR IS IMPORTANT AS THE CONFLUENCE, THANKS
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 48.png Size: 84 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 48A.png Size: 59 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 48B.png Size: 83 KB
The Average Discount Everything
  • #25
  • Feb 24, 2018 11:33pm Feb 24, 2018 11:33pm
Subs. thanks and
Regards
  • #26
  • Feb 25, 2018 3:42am Feb 25, 2018 3:42am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} The only way out of this problem imho is to define a different, dynamic level above which one just buys and below it just sells. This could be for example, the daily vwap. Then to aim at the pivot (if it happens to be on the correct side of the vwap) with R:R 1:1 or something. This might work. k
Has someone come across TWMA time weighted moving average as described in Wikipedia in stocks i.e time minutes it is taking for period pips diff one ma to move to another ma. Thanks and
regards.
  • #27
  • Feb 25, 2018 4:35pm Feb 25, 2018 4:35pm
A lot of Yen pairs are currently creating some nice opportunity for the next 24 hours.
  • #28
  • Edited 9:53pm Feb 25, 2018 8:31pm | Edited 9:53pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
A lot of Yen pairs are currently creating some nice opportunity for the next 24 hours.
And there gone...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ.PNG Size: 36 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CJ.PNG Size: 36 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ.PNG Size: 36 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ.PNG Size: 36 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NU.PNG Size: 32 KB


Remeber to consider your correlation risk if you trade a lot of pairs that move together.
  • #29
  • Feb 26, 2018 7:37am Feb 26, 2018 7:37am
Nice series of trades - are you using currency indices to give you clues about attractiveness of pair pivots ?
Augmenting Intelligence
  • #30
  • Feb 26, 2018 11:32am Feb 26, 2018 11:32am
am in; will give it a try.
  • #31
  • Feb 26, 2018 4:53pm Feb 26, 2018 4:53pm
Tried to establish Pearson r between the pair and its components for every pivot period...hmm.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM1.png Size: 96 KB
Augmenting Intelligence
  • #32
  • Feb 26, 2018 8:19pm Feb 26, 2018 8:19pm
Quoting !iii!
Tried to establish Pearson r between the pair and its components for every pivot period...hmm. {image}
Are we looking at the Caramilla pivots?
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #33
  • Feb 27, 2018 3:19am Feb 27, 2018 3:19am
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} Are we looking at the Caramilla pivots?
No, the standard ones - must have caught a strange data series, though, even the pivot reversion was <70%.
Augmenting Intelligence
  • #34
  • Feb 27, 2018 4:11am Feb 27, 2018 4:11am
Sorry to clog your thread, Sis, but pivots are statistically interesting: no matter what sample sets I choose (e.g. here I chose 22 bars or 22 min on a M1 chart), the pivot hit rate remains at approx. 75%. It reminds me of the scaling laws discovered by Richard Olsen a.o (https://www.researchgate.net/publica...e_FX_coastline).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM1.png Size: 71 KB
Augmenting Intelligence
  • #35
  • Feb 27, 2018 4:23am Feb 27, 2018 4:23am
Quoting !iii!
Sorry to clog your thread, Sis, but pivots are statistically interesting: no matter what sample sets I choose (e.g. here I chose 22 bars or 22 min on a M1 chart), the pivot hit rate remains at approx. 75%. It reminds me of the scaling laws discovered by Richard Olsen a.o (https://www.researchgate.net/publica...e_FX_coastline). {image}
That is to be expected as the pivot calculation gives a large (1/3) weight to the Close value. If it gave this weight to the Open instead of the Close, I would expect a significantly lower hit rate percentage...
k
  • #36
  • Edited 5:04am Feb 27, 2018 4:37am | Edited 5:04am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} That is to be expected as the pivot calculation gives a large (1/3) weight to the Close value. If it gave this weight to the Open instead of the Close, I would expect a significantly lower hit rate percentage... k
True - it dropped to about 60% at (H+L+O)/3.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM1.png Size: 56 KB
Augmenting Intelligence
  • #37
  • Feb 27, 2018 5:55am Feb 27, 2018 5:55am
Quoting !iii!
{quote} True - it dropped to about 60% at (H+L+O)/3. {image}
Likely a better set of rules would be to enter in the (Close-Open) direction in the (25% of) cases when (H+L+C)/3 is not reached. SL could simply be at (H+L+O)/3. Stop and reverse when the entry condition is satisfied in the opposite direction.
Cheers,
k
  • #38
  • Feb 27, 2018 9:52am Feb 27, 2018 9:52am
Quoting !iii!
Sorry to clog your thread, Sis, but pivots are statistically interesting: no matter what sample sets I choose (e.g. here I chose 22 bars or 22 min on a M1 chart), the pivot hit rate remains at approx. 75%. It reminds me of the scaling laws discovered by Richard Olsen a.o (https://www.researchgate.net/publica...e_FX_coastline). {image}

Keep sharing man. The whole point is to share unique ideas like this. I just wanted to lay a foundation for others to build off of.
  • #39
  • Feb 27, 2018 11:30am Feb 27, 2018 11:30am
Hi traders,

Today I just discover your thread. Here I share my first trade with this pivot concept strategy.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 68 KB



Following your steps. Let's see how can we build the system.


Thank you man!
TONI
  • #40
  • Mar 1, 2018 8:14am Mar 1, 2018 8:14am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Likely a better set of rules would be to enter in the (Close-Open) direction in the (25% of) cases when (H+L+C)/3 is not reached. SL could simply be at (H+L+O)/3. Stop and reverse when the entry condition is satisfied in the opposite direction. Cheers, k
Hmm, from my experience with subsequences I'd expect to see a win ratio of just 52 % for your suggestion.
0 traders viewing now