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Trading EURUSD only 43,756 replies

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EURUSD only

  • #14,701
  • Feb 26, 2018 11:27am Feb 26, 2018 11:27am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} nothing works all the time, you are looking for the edge, whatever it is...you can't control the market only your behavior base on the strategy you choose...
There are things that work ALL THE TIME. Sun is rising on the east side all the time. Market Makers never lose money. Just for your info.
When you're not sure Short or Long - toss a coin! Chances are 50% !!!
  • #14,702
  • Feb 26, 2018 11:28am Feb 26, 2018 11:28am
Quoting Montrealer
{quote} Exaclty, that's why I say patterns are a BS. They work sometimes, but any given pattern doesn't give you probability more than 50% over a long period of time. Otherwise it is a pure casino. I look for more reliable things, such as correlation in other markets and instruments. Also I observe the behavior of Market Makers.
I'd say it depends on the context in which the pattern appears.
Trouble lies in what we believe to know for sure that just ain't so.
  • #14,703
  • Feb 26, 2018 11:29am Feb 26, 2018 11:29am
Quoting Montrealer
{quote} Exaclty, that's why I say patterns are a BS. They work sometimes, but any given pattern doesn't give you probability more than 50% over a long period of time. Otherwise it is a pure casino. I look for more reliable things, such as correlation in other markets and instruments. Also I observe the behavior of Market Makers.
that's my point, we trade our beliefs, convictions our expectations based on the tools we trust the most.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #14,704
  • Edited 12:04pm Feb 26, 2018 11:35am | Edited 12:04pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} that's my point, we trade our beliefs, convictions our expectations based on the tools we trust the most.
Losers trade beliefs. Market Makers trade money and always win. That's being said, it leads to a conclusion that there are some SURE GAUGES to observe and predict markets. Out of 10 trades I have roughly 1-2 fail trades.
When you're not sure Short or Long - toss a coin! Chances are 50% !!!
  • #14,705
  • Feb 26, 2018 11:36am Feb 26, 2018 11:36am
Quoting Montrealer
{quote} There are things that work ALL THE TIME. Sun is rising on the east side all the time. Market Makers never lose money. Just for your info.
OMG, you really sound like Erasmus of Montreal.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #14,706
  • Feb 26, 2018 11:45am Feb 26, 2018 11:45am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} OMG, you really sound like Erasmus of Montreal.
What ever I sound, but here is my free tip to my fellow traders. Buy today deeps on EU. Only for today.
When you're not sure Short or Long - toss a coin! Chances are 50% !!!
  • #14,707
  • Feb 26, 2018 11:47am Feb 26, 2018 11:47am
Long @ 1.2283 15pip S/L.

(See attachment)
1. Strong bullish momentum.
2. Touched bottom of channel and pulled back.

Caution - EUR/ USD are following each other vs GBP and JPY. Could be choppy unless USD pulls back?

Who knows eh!?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 260218_2.jpg Size: 1.9 MB
  • #14,708
  • Feb 26, 2018 12:17pm Feb 26, 2018 12:17pm
Shorting time i guess for a targer 1. 2240 level in the coming days from 1. 2305-10 level
  • #14,709
  • Feb 26, 2018 12:22pm Feb 26, 2018 12:22pm
Quoting ivob
Just exactly my way of thinking in this trade: There are 2 types of change... VERY low volume at extreme and then high volume the other way (usually at slow hours) or HIGH volume at the extreme and lower volume the other way. So we get pinbar at Left trendline with huge volume (compared to previous bars) So the long is taken at BO of that bar. Currently +16pips while typing this. What must come next: we need decreasing green volume... bar going up on lower volume within the channel. Anything else = out... (usually with small profit) So while being...
Buy or sell ?
  • #14,710
  • Feb 26, 2018 12:28pm Feb 26, 2018 12:28pm
nice wedge at support but I totally missed it. Great follow thru up, large pullback to prior break out area, so I watched it and found smaller but valid wedge at 2300, scalped 5 & 8 pips on it. Stoked.
big money makes big moves and then hides during small money chasing.
  • #14,711
  • Feb 26, 2018 1:26pm Feb 26, 2018 1:26pm
Quoting Leesi
{quote} Buy or sell ?
Buy or sell what?

Here's where I bought (no, it's not rocket science..). I sold 1/3 at BO, 1/3 later on and got stopped out for 1/3 at BE.
The buy is at BO (breakout) of the pinbar, after which decreasing green volume is expected.
If that doesn't come then exit...
Reverse (or short) at failed breakout of trendline. but it didn't..it broke out.
So BO came.. after BO we wait for pt2 (retracement) and point 3 (continuation with increasing volume).
It's a sequence.
After point 3 is was too late in the day for something significant. It did come but slow, less participation so decreased volatility.

The reason for me to close quickly is that we where well below VWAP (the lightblue line)... higher timeframes still needed a point 3 down and it did retrace quite a bit. Too bad I got stopped out, price was just retesting that level. +128 pips today.

Ivo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 47 KB
Trouble lies in what we believe to know for sure that just ain't so.
  • #14,712
  • Feb 26, 2018 1:52pm Feb 26, 2018 1:52pm
Quoting FXScotland
Long @ 1.2283 15pip S/L. (See attachment) 1. Strong bullish momentum. 2. Touched bottom of channel and pulled back. Caution - EUR/ USD are following each other vs GBP and JPY. Could be choppy unless USD pulls back? Who knows eh!? {image}
S/L to break even. USD is starting to fall back against GBP and JPY. Might be some hope for this trade if EUR can break and hold above 1.2312

Who knows eh!?
  • #14,713
  • Feb 26, 2018 3:48pm Feb 26, 2018 3:48pm
Quoting ivob
{quote} Buy or sell what? Here's where I bought ..
I liked the pin bar too, but passed on it and later saw how good it was, but I continued watching and entered on a wedge on way up after huge retracement down where you were BE.

Later I saw it was a really good pattern at the low, lesson learned, hopefully I can apply it later if I see it....

it was booring and slow PA on this leg up, but trended really nicely, started a new practice account at another broker and traded demo gain on another long in this leg, fun stuff.

Now back above that 11:30am NY pivot, nice trend, good trades.

...also, the weekly pivot is up higher and price at some point here began to trade above the daily, theory is that it will head towards the weekly, your vwap reminded me of that.
big money makes big moves and then hides during small money chasing.
  • #14,714
  • Feb 26, 2018 4:09pm Feb 26, 2018 4:09pm
Daily Outlook Based on Elliott Wave Theory

  1. Price is dancing at the nearest support line and is either ready to bounce back up for new higher highs or break below it to retest 1.2120 area..
  2. Wave 5 is expected to complete at least around 1.2660 (I relied here on Bill Williams' measurement technique using fib expansion tool starting from wave 1 lowest point to wave 3 highest point and then back to wave 4 lowest point, after doing this the 5th wave is supposed to target a price between FE 61.8 and FE 100 area)

Short and simple: Daily chart based, as long as 1.2235 area supports we continue buying..

Stay Green

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-D-ElliottWave.png Size: 44 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #14,715
  • Feb 26, 2018 5:01pm Feb 26, 2018 5:01pm
Quoting ivob
{quote} ... during slow hours I see perfect patterns... failing, again and again. ...
I see that also, got caught in them plenty. Not any more tho. ...and one minute reversals during normal hours that fail, but the continuation patterns look ugly, but they are the ones that follow thru, until you get an ugly reversal pattern, after 2 or 3 failed perfect reversals that have worn out the patience of beginners so they are burnt out, then it turns. Every day, over and over.
big money makes big moves and then hides during small money chasing.
  • #14,716
  • Feb 26, 2018 6:40pm Feb 26, 2018 6:40pm
The euro has been steadily climbing into the night session, but the market seems to be disappointed at the inability to overcome the short-term resistance at 1.2345. The hourly charts show that a turning top is formed around the highs we saw last week. Overall, the EURUSD seems to be expanding its consolidation after the rally from the end of 2017, which began in mid-1.15. I am waiting for a more neutral range in the short term and see support in the middle/above 1.22-x; the key support is 1.2200/05. The main resistance is 1.2550/60
  • #14,717
  • Feb 26, 2018 7:27pm Feb 26, 2018 7:27pm
I’ve noticed with EUR/USD (times are in EST)

20:00-23:30= enter at 20:00 & exit for profit @ 23:30

23:30-00:30= analyze for next directional move

00:30-02:30= enter @ 00:30 & exit for profit @ 02:30

02:30-03:00= analyze next move for EU open

03:00-05:00= enter @ 03:00 & exit @ 05:00 and prepare for reversal
-or-
05:00-07:00= maintain original position for continuation into US premarket & take profit @ 00:70

07:00-07:30= analyze market and decide on US premarket move

07:30-09:00= US premarket exit @ 09:00/09:30 a US open

09:30-10:00= analyze and wait for clear direction for eithe reversal or continuation

10:00-11:30= US open into 11:30 EU close exit @ 11:30

11:30-12:30= analyze market and decide on movement for US close

13:00-14:00= decide if to exit @ 14:00 and prepare for reversal

14:00-16:00= maintain position from 13:00 or enter reversal heading into close.

its not perfect but its very noticeable that this is the layout barring NFP/ major data releases and even the major data decides the continuation or reversal
  • #14,718
  • Feb 26, 2018 8:44pm Feb 26, 2018 8:44pm
Source from my broker email
#1 Powell’s Take on Recent Market Developments – The Dow is down 6% since its peak in January as 10 year Treasury yields close in on 3%. Most U.S. policymakers are not concerned about these moves, especially given the recent recovery. If Powell shares these views and downplays the February correction, we should see stocks and risk currencies rally.
#2 Outlook on Growth and Inflation – Powell’s emphasis on wage gains, growth and inflation will also be very important. Wage gains have been on the rise and if he says it could push inflation higher, necessitating faster more aggressive moves on rates, it would be disastrous for stocks and risk appetite. In this case, the dollar would rise against most of the major currencies.
#3 Position on More Rate Hikes – Last but certainly not least is how much transparency Powell provides on rate hikes. It is widely believed that he will emphasize the need for gradual tightening but if he gets specific and confirms that 3 to 4 hikes may be necessary this year, it would be the most disruptive to currencies as the dollar would propel higher. However if his comments are relatively benign in that he refrains from talking about the specific number of hikes, investors could see this as a green light for further gains in equities and risk currencies.
Attached Image
Self discipline It is a practice
  • #14,719
  • Feb 26, 2018 9:22pm Feb 26, 2018 9:22pm
Eur usd ptz/key area based on orderblock ....imho
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR USD PTZ KEY AREA.png Size: 41 KB
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
  • #14,720
  • Feb 26, 2018 9:38pm Feb 26, 2018 9:38pm
Quoting classy
Eur usd ptz/key area based on orderblock ....imho {image}
Thinking complacency of recent 1.2280-1.2350 range to result in squeeze & breaktout to 1.2370-1.2390 resistance/stops going into EU data releases my stop is @ 1.2304
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