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  • #14,681
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:12am Feb 26, 2018 10:12am
Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} I am in and running with the bulls again 1.2288 st/los is me
with you. will add at opportune time
  • #14,682
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:14am Feb 26, 2018 10:14am
In my oppinion eu will go down next days. Patliamentary election on weekend in Italy. They can leave european union.
  • #14,683
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:19am Feb 26, 2018 10:19am
What exactly is Mr. Mario saying. ??
Maybe he said just fuck off ! , I just want Euro to 1.25 tomorrow.
Biggest Mistake ? Over Leverage
  • #14,684
  • Edited 10:42am Feb 26, 2018 10:20am | Edited 10:42am
Just exactly my way of thinking in this trade:

There are 2 types of change... VERY low volume at extreme and then high volume the other way (usually at slow hours) or HIGH volume at the extreme and lower volume the other way.

So we get pinbar at Left trendline with huge volume (compared to previous bars)
So the long is taken at BO of that bar. Currently +16pips while typing this.

What must come next: we need decreasing green volume... bar going up on lower volume within the channel. Anything else = out... (usually with small profit)

So while being in the trade volume is monitored..it's 80% of previous (pin)bar.. we stay in. This is healthy volume.. above 100 is dangerous... (high volume in a downchannel simply means people still like it and they have to dislike it...so price goes somewhere else!) below 40 is be aware, could be a flaw.

What must come next?
We arrive at BO... which takes place at lower volume, is clear and end almost at the high... no resistance at right trendline..great!
We get a clear BO.

What must come next?
Next bar completely outside the channel.. so it's a valid BO..

The action after valid BO is hold if I got in early and I did.. so we hold...wait for a retracement (at point 2) and then a point 3 up outside the channel. Great place to add.

It's all about "what must come next" and then letting reality match it.
Attached Image
Trouble lies in what we believe to know for sure that just ain't so.
  • #14,685
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:21am Feb 26, 2018 10:21am
Quoting sing2x
What exactly is Mr. Mario saying. ?? Maybe he said just fuck off ! , I just want Euro to 1.25 tomorrow.

He was just playing the part and woffelling IMHO,

DIDN'T SAY MUCH AT ALL
  • #14,686
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:22am Feb 26, 2018 10:22am
Quoting cloudypips
{quote} those patterns you highlighted all have names and very specific statistics relative to their likely direction you should look into getting a book titled "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (second edition) by Thomas N. Bulkowski" easily the greatest book ive ever read. its my bible and i keep it open each time i trade. practically hands you amazing setups once you learn the patterns
Trust my 18 years of experience in trading - patterns are a total BS.
When you're not sure Short or Long - toss a coin! Chances are 50% !!!
  • #14,687
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:32am Feb 26, 2018 10:32am
no one seeing the strong potential morning star set-up on the daily right near a daily support trendline from the 17th of Jan?
And its on 78.6 fib on daily....
  • #14,688
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:38am Feb 26, 2018 10:38am
Quoting Montrealer
{quote} Trust my 18 years of experience in trading - patterns are a total BS.
Yes I don’t base everything on charts a lot of times when everyone sees same pattern opposite happens or it takes longer I.e few bottoms or tops to play out, a lot of head fakes occur,I’m biased long EUR unles we break 1.2235 decisively, I’m biased EUR correcting to the upside heading into elections and ECB meeting next week no big players want to get caught short over the weekend if the elections are a disaster we have plenty of room to short from these levels I see banks taking EUR into 1.25 by Friday, if elections go well then we test 1.2670-1.28 negative elections they will take it to 1.195-1.175
  • #14,689
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:40am Feb 26, 2018 10:40am
Quoting Montrealer
{quote} Trust my 18 years of experience in trading - patterns are a total BS.

They give structure and the possible direction,especially the individual candle, it all adds up and collectively tells a story were some of us can use and determine as to which direction the price action will go, they are in fact a very powerful tool when used correctly,

take a look at the 1-2-3 reversal,or the Ratios & Harmonics, these are chart patterns,that when are used correctly are indeed very powerful tools my friend,

unless the individual is a scalper then chart patterns are not all that important,just direction is,

so a broad statement like that is just wrong IMHO,

But we all have our own ways of trading and we need to respect that here please my friend.

=
  • #14,690
  • Edited 10:57am Feb 26, 2018 10:45am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting Montrealer
{quote} Trust my 18 years of experience in trading - patterns are a total BS.
1.Patterns don't have any predictive power, they are close to random. It will work roundabout 50% of the times. Patterns are low risk entry points.

2. you might try to add a filter to optimize your outcomes.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #14,691
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:47am Feb 26, 2018 10:47am
I see the market as being right here. Higher prices ahead.
But, no guarantees right?
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  • #14,692
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:50am Feb 26, 2018 10:50am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} 1.Patterns don't have any predictive power, they are close to random. It will work roundabout 50% of the times. Patterns are low risk entry points, which mean she they provide low risk entry points. 2. you might try to add a filter to optimize your outcomes.
Senseless discussion, one can only say "Patterns don't work for me.."...

For some people astrology works!!


Ivo
Trouble lies in what we believe to know for sure that just ain't so.
  • #14,693
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:51am Feb 26, 2018 10:51am
I trade apples they work.....
  • #14,694
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:53am Feb 26, 2018 10:53am
Quoting Montrealer
{quote} Trust my 18 years of experience in trading - patterns are a total BS.
I have been trading harmonic patterns with basic rules of Elliott Waves for 15 years and it's not BS, believe me....Different folks different strokes.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #14,695
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:59am Feb 26, 2018 10:59am
Quoting ivob
{quote} Senseless discussion, one can only say "Patterns don't work for me.."... For some people astrology works!! Ivo
If patterns don't work what do you use to trade. It will be impossible to make money in the markets if behavior didn't reappear.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #14,696
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:59am Feb 26, 2018 10:59am
Quoting Neil0163
no one seeing the strong potential morning star set-up on the daily right near a daily support trendline from the 17th of Jan? And its on 78.6 fib on daily....
Yep i do,

i feel that good about it in fact i will call it a night get some sleep and be back at the opening of the new day just to be sure,

Good catch Neilo163

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  • #14,697
  • Edited 11:23am Feb 26, 2018 11:12am | Edited 11:23am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} If patterns don't work what do you use to trade. It will be impossible to make money in the markets if behavior didn't reappear.
You have to be smarter!!

For instance.. during slow hours I see perfect patterns... failing, again and again.

Why?

Marketmakers create those patterns to fool people!! Especially on the short timeframe.

If something really worked all the time and I wanted to do the opposite (like sell 1 billion) I would wait for it to appear and then fade it!! Great liquidity!!

That's why nothing works all the time... that's why edges disappear.. You never know who's on the sidelines waiting to step in.
If a lot of selling is going on they do not want you to know! They'll do it as efficiently as possible!

So what traders need is experience to pickup subtle clues. It's art.
And of course a true understanding of the nature of markets. They follow the way of least resistance. It goes because it cannot go anywhere else...but it will first try anywhere else!

Ivo
Trouble lies in what we believe to know for sure that just ain't so.
  • #14,698
  • Feb 26, 2018 11:20am Feb 26, 2018 11:20am
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Regard NOOR16
  • #14,699
  • Feb 26, 2018 11:22am Feb 26, 2018 11:22am
Quoting ivob
{quote} You have to be smarter!! For instance.. during slow hours I see perfect patterns... failing, again and again. Why? Marketmakers create those patterns to fool people!! Especially on the short timeframe. If something really worked all the time and I wanted to do the opposite I would wait for it to appear and then fade it!! Great liquidity!! That's why nothing works all the time... that's why edges disappear.. So what traders need is experience to pickup subtle clues. It's art. And of course a true understanding of the nature of markets. They...
Exaclty, that's why I say patterns are a BS. They work sometimes, but any given pattern doesn't give you probability more than 50% over a long period of time. Otherwise it is a pure casino. I look for more reliable things, such as correlation in other markets and instruments. Also I observe the behavior of Market Makers.
When you're not sure Short or Long - toss a coin! Chances are 50% !!!
  • #14,700
  • Feb 26, 2018 11:24am Feb 26, 2018 11:24am
Quoting ivob
{quote} You have to be smarter!! For instance.. during slow hours I see perfect patterns... failing, again and again. Why? Marketmakers create those patterns to fool people!! Especially on the short timeframe. If something really worked all the time and I wanted to do the opposite (like sell 1 billion) I would wait for it to appear and then fade it!! Great liquidity!! That's why nothing works all the time... that's why edges disappear.. You never know who's on the sidelines waiting to step in. So what traders need is experience to pickup subtle...
nothing works all the time, you are looking for the edge, whatever it is...you can't control the market only your behavior base on the strategy you choose...
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
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