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  • #14,501
  • Feb 23, 2018 2:18pm Feb 23, 2018 2:18pm
Quoting FXClarity
{quote} ...e
Good to see you mate. Happy trading.
  • #14,502
  • Feb 23, 2018 2:42pm Feb 23, 2018 2:42pm
Quoting mbrown
my probability is simply that. 96% the level is valid until the close. This does not mean it will get there, there is a 4% loss margin. As I've wrote before, I have posted this setup quite a few times before and that is in my post history. But very late in the day so I cannot see it getting there but it is a set system so valid until close. It does't matter what I think, the probabilities were calculated until the close of play since year 2000.

Growing Grass moves faster









Quote
Brian Dingoman-two
  • #14,503
  • Feb 23, 2018 3:21pm Feb 23, 2018 3:21pm
are we going to be bullish or bearish next week
  • #14,504
  • Feb 23, 2018 3:30pm Feb 23, 2018 3:30pm
Ah well, unless something happens in the next 30 minutes I can't see them chasing up the price in a thin market by 50 pips to achieve the 1.2350

Perhaps not everyone in the options business is too worried, they might have hedged against other stuff even KFC chicken futures (the UK has had a severe supply problem this week with its poultry I just thought I would explain for the benefit of overseas residents).
  • #14,505
  • Feb 23, 2018 4:04pm Feb 23, 2018 4:04pm
weird spot to go into next week with, i think ill remain bull for now, ECB Monday normally bullish for euro.
  • #14,506
  • Feb 23, 2018 8:17pm Feb 23, 2018 8:17pm
Quoting digger1
{quote} Welcome to consolidation ,,,,,,70% of mkt time is exactly this ,,,,,
I don't think a single person on this thread thought consolidation when was nearing 1.23. You were either (1) waiting for price action to indicate a rejection of the 1.23 support and daily trend line in readiness for a move higher, (2) for price to break through 1.23, use it as resistance and/or indicate bears were willing to take price lower, or (3) trade the false breakout. Take a look at the charts and you'll see that you would've been stopped out as price whipsawed multiple times through key levels if you had confirmed and traded ANY 3 of these options. The correct choice was to stay out of the market unless you were scalping for a few dozen pips. Even then, I cannot reason why price moved as it did. Hindsight is 20/20 and I sure got a headache in real time trying to make sense of the noise the big boys were causing.

Have a good weekend.
  • #14,507
  • Feb 24, 2018 12:20am Feb 24, 2018 12:20am
Quoting KeepITGreen
weird spot to go into next week with
Very true. To be honest, I thought either the bulls bring us convincingly above 1.23 or the bears pull us convincingly below 1.23, but neither happened.

Cheers and good weekend to all, especially my good friend, Ata.
  • #14,508
  • Edited 2:14am Feb 24, 2018 1:27am | Edited 2:14am
Quoting MoneyFocus
{quote} Very true. To be honest, I thought either the bulls bring us convincingly above 1.23 or the bears pull us convincingly below 1.23, but neither happened. Cheers and good weekend to all, especially my good friend, Ata.

Who Knows ????

The first Chart is a 15 min chart with one hour pivot points x3

The second chart is based on a harmonic/ratio pattern and is in a one hour chart

Screenshot 2018-02-24 15.23.24.png

Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} Who Knows ???? Screenshot 2018-02-24 15.23.24.png {image}

Another chart folks

Screenshot 2018-02-24 16.09.41.png
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  • #14,509
  • Feb 24, 2018 2:23am Feb 24, 2018 2:23am
Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} Who Knows ???? The first Chart is a 15 min chart with one hour pivot points x3 The second chart is based on a harmonic/ratio pattern and is in a one hour chart Screenshot 2018-02-24 15.23.24.png {quote} Another chart folks Screenshot 2018-02-24 16.09.41.png {image} {image}
nice.
100% KENYAN.
  • #14,510
  • Feb 24, 2018 3:23am Feb 24, 2018 3:23am
Since the week is over, here are my thoughts...i didn't want to believe that we had a double top so i waited for more confirmation. The red zone in the pic was the last defense the buyers had and once it was broken, it was retested 2 times. The downtrend on eurusd has begun imo (well it's there since last week i just didn't want to believe it) and there is only one way to overturn this right now...a hella lot of buyers at the 1.2200 level, otherwise 1.20 is next. Minimum.
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  • #14,511
  • Feb 24, 2018 4:35am Feb 24, 2018 4:35am
Remarks made on Reuters website

The euro edged lower against the dollar, pressured by the greenback’s stronger tone and by investor caution ahead of the outcome of the Italian general election on March 4.
A German Social Democrats’ poll of its members on joining another coalition government with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives is also due that day, two big political risk events for markets.
“For people that are bullish on the euro, there is nothing new to get people to increase positions,”
  • #14,512
  • Feb 24, 2018 7:45am Feb 24, 2018 7:45am
Quoting krecci
{quote} I don't think a single person on this thread thought consolidation when was nearing 1.23. You were either (1) waiting for price action to indicate a rejection of the 1.23 support and daily trend line in readiness for a move higher, (2) for price to break through 1.23, use it as resistance and/or indicate bears were willing to take price lower, or (3) trade the false breakout. Take a look at the charts and you'll see that you would've been stopped out as price whipsawed multiple times through key levels if you had confirmed and traded ANY...
Great week end to you too man ,,,,,I said consolidation lol,,looks that way if trading a small time frame as a lot here do,,,,,,I do too for scalps ,,,,,,My own belief ,,,,,,, its distribution ,,,,,,takes the big boys a little time to do that ,,and time will tell ,,,,, 2 weeks ago a rough weekly price average quit going up ,,,,,,,,,,Wednesday and Friday price closed below a rough monthly price a average ( 4 hour 200sma) Thats something that hasent happened since Dec 18th . Probably worth noting . it also used Quarterly R2 as resistance. Thursday and Fridays trading has got the makings of a nice bear flag with a price projection to 1.22 area frome Q R2 ,,,,where if you get your levels from a daily chart,,,,,,which is the worker for the grand puba -monthly chart and its ceo - weekly chart,,,,,,,,,, even daily traders would not be thinking long before 22ish area and really probably not before 2096 which is the break out price above 2 year range highs. . As of close Friday the trigger for the bear flag wasent passed yet but wouldnt be suprised if has been when mkt opens ,,,,,,,,, Dont fret and give yourself head aches man ,,,,,,,look at a bigger picture lol
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  • #14,513
  • Feb 24, 2018 8:04am Feb 24, 2018 8:04am
My analysis
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  • #14,514
  • Feb 24, 2018 10:16am Feb 24, 2018 10:16am
The bigger picture

Yes I think many of us tried to convince ourselves all of this week this was an unbroken upwards trend and that the market would find support. This has not been confirmed, and perhaps we have to admit the upward moves in the Euro over the last 6 weeks and more were over extended. Drawing a trend line with the bottom price of the candles on the daily from early April through about the 18th December and projected beyond, it would tend to say fibre is still as much as 170 pips ahead of itself even if the general trend continues upwards.

Other than dollar weakness there doesn't seem to be any reason for the euro to race ahead just yet.


In a higher time frame than H1, H4 etc I think the next support level is the low of 9th February around 1.2205
  • #14,515
  • Feb 24, 2018 11:45am Feb 24, 2018 11:45am
Quoting greengp
are we going to be bullish or bearish next week
I think sideways
I stop trading EU as long price is between 1.23 and 1.24 because risk to reward ratio is to high right now.
  • #14,516
  • Edited 12:19pm Feb 24, 2018 12:08pm | Edited 12:19pm
So further in depth developed analysis of EU.

Carrying out a top down analysis from monthly we see on the 4 hour chart we currently have price hovering around the strong monthly resistance zone (blue box),
Looking at a weekly chart we can see we are in an uptrend obviously.

Moving down to the daily chart we can see price still continues to make HH HL we have an established trendline running up from that 1.2170 to 1.2215 level causing two touches for the trendline to be established (yellow trend line on the chart.

4 hour chart show price has been moving down strongly but given the bias is long this is simply a retrace within a up move in fact if we zoom out youll see price within a range as such simply shows price taking a break after a rally (rally,consolodation,rally- simple market cycle)

So what next, well given that price has confluence from the yellow daily trendline and also 61.8 fib at 1.225 (golden fib) level of the weekly fib id say it be a good opportunity to take a long (bear in mind higher support/fib levels take president over lower times frames) looking at profits again as previously stated 1.26 level this is the most likely course of action for me.

Second likely course of action price simply break the Aqua (4hour counter trend line) and rallies up

Most unlikely course of action but potential- price pushes down and breaks through the monthly key support level id then look to the further weekly fibs and look for price action around them levels.
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  • #14,517
  • Feb 24, 2018 12:43pm Feb 24, 2018 12:43pm
Quoting Neil0163
So further in depth developed analysis of EU. Carrying out a top down analysis from monthly we see on the 4 hour chart we currently have price hovering around the strong monthly resistance zone (blue box), Looking at a weekly chart we can see we are in an uptrend obviously. Moving down to the daily chart we can see price still continues to make HH HL we have an established trendline running up from that 1.2170 to 1.2215 level causing two touches for the trendline to be established (yellow trend line on the chart. 4 hour chart show price has been...
Great input ,,,,,,,the weekly is a little more in depth of a monthly ,,,,,,,,,,,I have watched these box level and extensions play out day after day and week after week ,,,,,,,,,,,,My own view is it is done going up till some of the orange x levels are tested ,,,its just what mkts do ,,,,woulld expect a good bounce from the 2160 level Light blue circle , as that is the 50 % level of the entire drop from the 1.60 level but lower would not be surprising either
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  • #14,518
  • Feb 24, 2018 3:21pm Feb 24, 2018 3:21pm
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I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #14,519
  • Feb 24, 2018 3:25pm Feb 24, 2018 3:25pm
Quoting baherhosni
{image}
Man.... you are alive and well...!!!

Very glad to see you. I have missed you terribly. Let me know what are you doing. You will be posting here often now ?

  • #14,520
  • Feb 24, 2018 4:04pm Feb 24, 2018 4:04pm
Quoting baherhosni
{image}
Descending trend line from 1.6 in 2008 shown in that graph could put a limit on the price rising. Anyway trends are sometimes broken............
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