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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #37,421
  • Feb 24, 2018 9:57am Feb 24, 2018 9:57am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Traders, Tuesday is our live stream where we will trade and discuss those shitty emotions that reek havoc on our bottom line and break us down. Hopefully I will be able to teach you to stay in control. I am excited and I hope you are too. See you all on Monday for trading and Tuesday on the live stream.
Really looking forward to it, emotions is sometimes what keeps us from reaching our goals.
"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #37,422
  • Feb 24, 2018 10:03am Feb 24, 2018 10:03am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Traders, Tuesday is our live stream where we will trade and discuss those shitty emotions that reek havoc on our bottom line and break us down. Hopefully I will be able to teach you to stay in control. I am excited and I hope you are too. See you all on Monday for trading and Tuesday on the live stream.
Always looking forward to all your live stream. And trading along side with you on the thread is always an extra bonus! Have a fantastic weekend Mr Pip and God bless!
  • #37,423
  • Feb 24, 2018 10:48am Feb 24, 2018 10:48am
Quoting HighGarden
{quote} thank you buddy, for give me a help. im feeling excited about this pattern, this is chart that i was talking about, GBPUSD and AUDNZD bearish chyper in bearish market, please give me your oppinion. thank you. {image} {image}
You might want to look for something like this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Schermafbeelding 2018-02-24 om 17.47.33.png Size: 159 KB
"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #37,424
  • Feb 24, 2018 12:09pm Feb 24, 2018 12:09pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} I don't mind doing it, because it is also a way for me to say thank you to Mr. Pip for all his great teaching (and still learn from him). However, sometimes I am not sure if it helps people (limited feedback) and finally it takes also a lot of my time.
Keep it coming

Agreed it can take some time to compose these replies but I know I appreciate them and find interest in reading them as I am sure most others do. Based on your posts with charts you are making good trades, which indicates you have a good read on the charts and all seem inline with what is being taught here.

It is always useful to see how others read things as to whether it is the same as me/others, just helps validate my thoughts or point out things I have missed or not considered.
  • #37,425
  • Feb 24, 2018 12:19pm Feb 24, 2018 12:19pm
Quoting bmdenton23
Since we're all bored with no trading over the weekend, I thought I would post a few charts of trades I took today, any discussion is welcomed. This first chart is of the first 2 trades I took today. Both of these were 100% retracements. The first came back to BE, I was up 77 pts at one point in this trade. The 2nd, I took a little profit near the top. Neither got close to NSH. I welcome any discussion about 100% retracements in terms of expectations. Should we look to take profit earlier. Is looking for the 127 extension absolutely unreasonable...
My thoughts are you can look to trail earlier on these types of trades. If you have a 100% retracement then yes the expectation is still the same. That said, in my opinion this also weakens expectation. So I would look at what the chart is telling me.

Your first trade hit the 61.8% and the high of the previous swing, I would be looking to either TP or trail behind decision candles, which in this case would have given more profit, but in other cases may not. I know I have a habit to lock in profit more than Mr Pip and a lot of the time I know this leaves money on the table. Also the momentum of the swing up on this trade was less than the last swing down.

The second trade I would probably have been taken out at BE on this one. Weaker sellers approaching the area you took the trade then the bulls came in strong so would have expected NSH and would have got to BE leaving room to breathe.
  • #37,426
  • Feb 24, 2018 2:12pm Feb 24, 2018 2:12pm
Quoting bmdenton23
Here was a -47 loser. I'm not showing the end result, hindsight is easy for all of us, just know it failed and I believe my stop was in the right place. Question on the chart about getting to BE sooner because of previous structure. Question on the chart about considering the NSL a retest instead of a NSL.
Hi bmdenton23,

Here is a different perspective on your short using channels also called action/reaction lines. If you want to know more about this way of representing the context look for Medianline and Timothy Morge. Using this representation, your short had a low probability given the new HH if you can imagine the descending channel as a horizontal range as described in the image.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TimMorganReactionLines.png Size: 149 KB
  • #37,427
  • Feb 25, 2018 1:18am Feb 25, 2018 1:18am
Quoting Sheeep44
{quote} You might want to look for something like this. {image}
Hi buddy,
thank you for guiding me, i will studied the chart again for correct anchor.
  • #37,428
  • Edited 3:12am Feb 25, 2018 2:42am | Edited 3:12am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Hello Brian, I'm happy you have found my lessons helpful. Superficially I would say that it is the correct way to project a harmonic move however I do not have enough data from your chart to determine the expectation. Please join me on Tuesday as I always refresh what we have learned and this particular live stream we will get into the emotional component to trading. It is going to be an amazing stream where you and anyone can ask any question and I will take the time to answer the questions. I hope to see you and the whole world there.

Excellent Mr Pip,

Thank you, very much Mr Pip, And where and when is your webinar, and how can i be apart of it all please,

I would like to thank you for everything you are doing here,

I have no doubt that there are many others that would agree as well,

The chart is eur/usd 15 min and i'm bullish to the high indicated above in red

cheers Brian Dingoman-two

P/s my trades were in place before i found you guys,
they may have been very different if i had found you all earlier.


Screenshot 2018-02-25 16.29.23.png (https://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=2691108&stc=1&d=1519548031)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2018-02-25 16.29.23.png Size: 94 KB
  • #37,429
  • Feb 25, 2018 5:34am Feb 25, 2018 5:34am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Maybe, it is now clearer (see comments above directed to bmdenton23) for you why I entered....
Thank you for explaining!

I wouldn't expect the blue zone to hold at your entry.
Even now, after your explanation, I see it like this:
(sorry I don't have YM data yet so I cannot put it on a chart)

- To the left there was a lot of support. Price bounced several times. Many buyers there, but they couldn't push through. Every time they get less far (made a lower high), until finally price breaks through the support zone, indicating there are no more buyers in that zone.
- Price drops to about 25000 and comes back up, crossing the blue zone again.
- When price comes back down to the blue zone, new buyers are present, they also saw the previous strong buying at that level. Price moves up, but gets less far than the previous high, indicating weak buying.
- Price comes back to the blue zone again.
- It is at this point, just before where you went long that I would expect a deeper correction, because it looks like there are not enough buyers to push price higher.
And because the 25045 zone is still untested, I would expect an ABCD with extended CD into 25045, then a move up.

Maybe I'm overthinking it.
Am I? I'm open for suggestions/discussion!
  • #37,430
  • Edited 8:08am Feb 25, 2018 6:07am | Edited 8:08am
Quoting PeterT
{quote} Thank you for explaining! I wouldn't expect the blue zone to hold at your entry. Even now, after your explanation, I see it like this: (sorry I don't have YM data yet so I cannot put it on a chart) - To the left there was a lot of support. Price bounced several times. Many buyers there, but they couldn't push through. Every time they get less far (made a lower high), until finally price breaks through the support zone, indicating there are no more buyers in that zone. - Price drops to about 25000 and comes back up, crossing the blue zone...
Honestly, during live trading I did not ask myself all these questions. It was more, big initial move without bears; resistance becomes support; PA is supported by overall PA (for me, my two shorts taken later were not that smart, because I was expecting overall to produce on the longer term an overall NSH; would have been more intelligent to look for a good long entry; was thinking to reverse the entry on the exit point of the second short, but I did not because I had to go) and pushed the button.
However, I was aware that I cannot expect a 1:1 to the upside in an easy one go, so adjusted my TP.

If you do not feel comfortable with such a trade, just let it go. If price would have corrected more, it would have taken me out. No big deal, would not have been a big loss. Not all my trades which ended even with profit are always that smart, but it is what it is. I decided to enter, so I ride it. I have also doubts on some trades, sometimes fear,....or I see after having entered that I did not pay attention to certain things. So I try to adapt it to the given situation (this could mean a rescue mission, adapt TP, simply bail out,...).


General remark:

I see many times a lot of argumentations to why not take a trade.
I rarely see, my plan says X,Y,Z so I take it. People rely on the stat of 70%,.....

However, this is only true, if you take them all or at least a very high proportion of them. From the stats that I have seen up to now, I never saw (except stats from Mr. Pip) a figure close to 70%.
This is also the reason, why I asked two times Mr. Pip, if he could do a livestream showing trades based on immediate orderflow (preferably on lower tick chart, e.g. 89T) on a more mechanical basis. I think that this would help others. We have to take the decisions in live.
We could spend months of drawing boxes, lines, fibs, patterns, .... to explain why something is good to do or bad to do, but I am not sure that this really helps to enter trades.

NB: The comment is not to offend anybody or directed to someone in specific. It is only a point to think about. I wish to see green results in the stats of everybody.
  • #37,431
  • Feb 25, 2018 6:30am Feb 25, 2018 6:30am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} I think the biggest problem for you is to identify clearly, when you should trading immediate orderflow versus longer term expectation and finally where is price really working towards.
That really IS the problem.
For example, I'm trading the immediate OF.
I can determine the current direction of the OF, I can measure fib levels and determine S/R, harmonics..
I think I always put my SL in the right place, according to the swing and the orderflow I'm trading.
But the REAL problem is that I don't know how long I can continue taking entries in the current direction.
A lot of times, a correction of the larger OF will cause an expectation failure in the immediate OF.
Even when I DO have make a good analysis of how the larger OF is likely to proceed, I still don't know where the larger OF will correct (and possibly cause an expectation failure in the immediate) .

Lately I interpreted Mr. Pip's message differently. I took EVERY entry in the immediate that had a deep enough correction, at structure. So R:R of at least 1:1.
So I would only lose when the immediate expectation failed. If that is less than 50% of all entries, I'd be in profit.
But apparently I got a lot more expectation failures.
I THINK one of the problems is that I only took deep corrections. When price is moving strongly, you only get shallow corrections. No entry for me there.
It is often when price is slowing down and strength is diminishing, that the deep corrections come into play. That is where I'm looking for entries. But that is also where the possibility of an expectation failure is higher.
I'm looking to take the shallower entries also (from 38.2%), to catch the strong movements. Like in your example actually.
It was holding me back that I had to put my SL below the main swing then.
The other two options that I see are:
- protecting below strong structure (like in your trade)
- putting in part of a full position and adding to it if price corrects deeper (with SL stil below the main swing). That will be harder with YM for me.

Just sharing my thoughts, still looking for the solution

Quoting evocpr19
{quote} NB: I just know that I am writing too much. Will reduce this, do not want to bore/annoy people. The subscriptions level tells me more to silence, since it is a kind of barometer of assessing the level of importance that readers give of messages from somebody.
I completely disagree with all of this.
1) You cannot write too much when transferring your thoughts/opinions or trying to explain something.
You're posts are always very to the point and contain very useful info.
I don't think anybody would disagree.

2) PLEASE do not use the number of subscriptions as a barometer (also don't use "likes" as a barometer!). I am very interested in what you share and what you have to say, but I don't use the subscription system. I just follow the thread. I do not need notification when you or other interesting traders post something. I just see it appearing :-)

That said, I am also aware that other users do value the subscription system. I think your posts are more valuable than posts of some 'yellow-orange-red flag' posters on FF. I subscribed, but without notifications
  • #37,432
  • Feb 25, 2018 6:43am Feb 25, 2018 6:43am
Hi Evo...
thanks for your explanation,,, your tradingstyle is just so cool, as it really show the power of mechanically using the StructureAnalsys without doubt and release brainpower from overthink tradesetup to just sit comfortably and watch the place to get at High accoricy Trade again and again...
Your record shows it,,, thank you for sharing!
Are you profitable? I am not... yet...
  • #37,433
  • Feb 25, 2018 6:53am Feb 25, 2018 6:53am
Quoting Pjort
Hi Evo... thanks for your explanation,,, your tradingstyle is just so cool, as it really show the power of mechanically using the StructureAnalsys without doubt and release brainpower from overthink tradesetup to just sit comfortably and watch the place to get at High accoricy Trade again and again... Your record shows it,,, thank you for sharing!
"without doubt" and "just sit comfortably" tells me that it is good, that you do not see me trading live. This is what fascinates me always during the livestreams of Mr. Pip.

I have also days, where the chart tells me nothing. I could flip a coin or flip a bottle to see in which direction the bottleneck is showing as a basis for a trade.
On these days, I should just go away and do something else. This is a point, which I currently work on. This happened once last week (ended positive, but felt not good with it).
  • #37,434
  • Feb 25, 2018 7:13am Feb 25, 2018 7:13am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} "without doubt" and "just sit comfortably" tells me that it is good, that you do not see me trading live.

now I'm curious
  • #37,435
  • Feb 25, 2018 7:58am Feb 25, 2018 7:58am
Quoting HighGarden
{quote} sorry for my unclear response, for that two chart i posted before GBPUSD and AUDNZD, im not yet take the trade, because it still developing point D (PRZ), hope will reach point D at next days.
No harm, I found it funny.

I could never trade like that.
My longest trade was something like 3 hours in a trade (i think it was this year), but this was real pain for me (it did not really run against me, but I like than things move and come to an end).

Please inform us about the take and outcome. Wish you many pips, ticks, points, $.
  • #37,436
  • Feb 25, 2018 8:27am Feb 25, 2018 8:27am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} No harm, I found it funny. I could never trade like that. My longest trade was something like 3 hours in a trade (i think it was this year), but this was real pain for me (it did not really run against me, but I like than things move and come to an end). Please inform us about the take and outcome. Wish you many pips, ticks, points, $.
lately i use m5 but dont have good profit because of spread, now im tryong to use h1, so take long time, i think will give better result

im still newbie, and still strugling to identified correct X (anchor leg),

anyone can give more example picture about this X?
  • #37,437
  • Feb 25, 2018 9:04am Feb 25, 2018 9:04am
Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} Excellent Mr Pip, Thank you, very much Mr Pip, And where and when is your webinar, and how can i be apart of it all please, I would like to thank you for everything you are doing here, I have no doubt that there are many others that would agree as well, The chart is eur/usd 15 min and i'm bullish to the high indicated above in red cheers Brian Dingoman-two P/s my trades were in place before i found you guys, they may have been very different if i had found you all earlier. Screenshot (https://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=2691108&stc=1&d=1519548031)...
I will post the link hear on Tuesday Morning at 0900 EST.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #37,438
  • Edited 10:12am Feb 25, 2018 9:30am | Edited 10:12am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} I will post the link hear on Tuesday Morning at 0900 EST.
Hi Mr. Pip,

I need correction if im wrong, please LOL.

im newbie.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #37,439
  • Feb 25, 2018 11:11am Feb 25, 2018 11:11am
Quoting PeterT
{quote} That really IS the problem. For example, I'm trading the immediate OF. I can determine the current direction of the OF, I can measure fib levels and determine S/R, harmonics.. I think I always put my SL in the right place, according to the swing and the orderflow I'm trading. But the REAL problem is that I don't know how long I can continue taking entries in the current direction. A lot of times, a correction of the larger OF will cause an expectation failure in the immediate OF. Even when I DO have make a good analysis of how the larger...

I also came to that conclusion some time ago, about the retreacement and that, alot of times, it only goes into the 38.2 retreacement before running wild, that when it reaches a good retreacement level, it is in fact the expectation failure, and that immediate, short, long timeframe confusion ( happened especially when market started getting crazy ).

Dunno if it helps, but some points I came across:

* either i get into my head or i remove fibonaci all together, because fibonnaci is not structure. structure first , fib later. If both match, wonderfull, but just reaching a level is not enough, it has to have structure.
* this is very recent, but allow to enter 38.2 trades, but stop just below structure WITHIN my max loss money permited.
* always aware that if today worked, in another dimension it would have failed, and if today failed, in another dimension it worked. you just never know.
* complete separation of immediate, long, short term charts.... tripplicate charts if needed and do notes on them.

There is still the problem that lot of times, in immediate, it goes to 100% retreacement plus + pip more than my stop, and then goes completly my way. So .. what i try to notice now, its reaction in the zones, not just rotation candles.

Hope it helps, I feel that Evo and Mr. PIP can help you much more than me, but just want to help however I can !
  • #37,440
  • Feb 25, 2018 11:21am Feb 25, 2018 11:21am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Honestly, during live trading I did not ask myself all these questions. It was more, big initial move without bears; resistance becomes support; PA is supported by overall PA (for me, my two shorts taken later were not that smart, because I was expecting overall to produce on the longer term an overall NSH; would have been more dointelligent to look for a good long entry; was thinking to reverse the entry on the exit point of the second short, but I did not because I had to go) and pushed the button. However, I was aware that I cannot expect...
Do you have a specific trading plan or base your trades on cminbining short and longer term OF that are in line with overall PA. What is your winrate overall?
"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
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