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  • #15,761
  • Feb 15, 2018 8:49am Feb 15, 2018 8:49am
Quoting since80808
Hi Tony! Here is my yesterday Crude Oil trade. No matter the loss. Haven't seen any big candle. I'm interested, were I right using your strategy - could you please check my TP and SL? Thank you and hope you feel better! {image}
hi man
I think you should trade on oil or brent
  • #15,762
  • Feb 16, 2018 5:18am Feb 16, 2018 5:18am
Quoting TurcBroker
Hi guys, Let me know what you think about this numbers: Based on Tony's comments that "I suggest you start trading only: NFP, CAD CPI, CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES, AUD EMPLOYMENT, NZD EMPLOYMENT and GBP Claimant count." That would be 112 trades in one year (5 events per month + 1 event per week (Oil Inventories)) (5*12) + (1*52) = 112 trades Assuming that you have an account of $10,000, a leverage 1:100 and you risk 5% per trade. We would have something like this: SL: 18 pips (500 USD) Pip Value: $27.77 TP: 120 pips (3,333 USD) One successful trade per...
I trade NFP, CAD Employment, Oil (Brent), sometimes AUD Employment, sometimes USD Retail Sales. The 'sometimes' is because I am looking for a decent difference between Previous and Forecast.

Wouldn't touch GBP Claimant count.

So maybe you do ~8 news trades a month. Win out on about 3 trades every 2 months (3/16 trades). So pip profit is roughly:

(3*120)-(13*(18+3)) = 87 pips profit per two months. (The additional 3 pips on the loss is resent average slippage ... sometimes more, sometimes none, and some even positive slippage)

So ~43 pips per month profit.

So for your risk profile you might be making profit as follows:

$10,000 Account risking 5%
SL = $583 (5% risk = $500 plus slippage which equals another 3/18th of $500)
Pip value = $27.78 ($500/18 pips SL)

Profit/per 2 months: 87*27.78 = $2,416 = ~$14,500 p.a.

Many of these news trades go no where near 120 pips profit off the back of the news event - but can easily do this many pips when there is momentum (ie trend) in line with news event. So maybe look to take the trade in line with primary trend and use the news event to give you a decent buffer into the trend with the objective of taking 120 pips out of the market.

The key as always is to leave the trade alone ... any playing with it will kill the above calculations. They either go bust or get to target. Moving your stop to BE after the initial spike simply lowers your probability of reaching the 120 pip target - give the trade as much room as possible to get to target.

Playing around with the trades will only cause you to spin your wheels and is a sure bet to get you no where.
  • #15,763
  • Feb 17, 2018 9:46am Feb 17, 2018 9:46am
Good
lets go
The biggest blow is CPI CAD

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  • #15,764
  • Feb 18, 2018 8:22pm Feb 18, 2018 8:22pm
I'm exceptionally trading FOMC this week because I know there's gonna be a lot of volatility based on the previewed rate hikes and stability.
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Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,765
  • Feb 19, 2018 2:48pm Feb 19, 2018 2:48pm
Quoting Tony112
I'm exceptionally trading FOMC this week because I know there's gonna be a lot of volatility based on the previewed rate hikes and stability. {image}
Good Thank you tony
  • #15,766
  • Feb 19, 2018 7:39pm Feb 19, 2018 7:39pm
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Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,767
  • Feb 20, 2018 11:52am Feb 20, 2018 11:52am
Quoting Tony112
{image}
Hey Tony what pair will you be trading for US FOMC? I was previously thinking going short on EUR-USD but in response to your last comment I think you may be going long? Also if playing the long option do you think it would be better to set a higher SL than normal invade the immediate market reaction is positive USD before all mins are read causing a whipsaw?
  • #15,768
  • Feb 20, 2018 12:04pm Feb 20, 2018 12:04pm
I know this strategy doesn't straddle the news release but why don't you guys just straddle the news, but not just a normal straddle.....stretch it out some. Place the pending orders 20 pips away on both sides. Allow for plenty of room for slippage and spread. The profits won't be as big but you have less chance of getting a loss.
  • #15,769
  • Feb 21, 2018 9:31am Feb 21, 2018 9:31am
Quoting bojack34
I know this strategy doesn't straddle the news release but why don't you guys just straddle the news, but not just a normal straddle.....stretch it out some. Place the pending orders 20 pips away on both sides. Allow for plenty of room for slippage and spread. The profits won't be as big but you have less chance of getting a loss.

The problem is that you pay the full spread»: e.g.20 pips

if you enter before you pay half of the spread
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,770
  • Feb 21, 2018 11:23am Feb 21, 2018 11:23am
Quoting Tony112
{quote} The problem is that you pay the full spread»: e.g.20 pips if you enter before you pay half of the spread
but you get the win and not the loss as long as you set your pending orders far enough away to avoid the slippage.
  • #15,771
  • Feb 21, 2018 11:57am Feb 21, 2018 11:57am
Quoting Tony112
{quote} The problem is that you pay the full spread»: e.g.20 pips if you enter before you pay half of the spread
What about placing a by orders seconds before with a 120TP and 18SL and a sell order 35-40 pips below.... possibly make every trade a break even? If it goes your way you get the win if it goes the other way you should be able to recoup your loss? Any thoughts
  • #15,772
  • Feb 21, 2018 1:05pm Feb 21, 2018 1:05pm
Quoting JTexclusive
{quote} What about placing a by orders seconds before with a 120TP and 18SL and a sell order 35-40 pips below.... possibly make every trade a break even? If it goes your way you get the win if it goes the other way you should be able to recoup your loss? Any thoughts
If you place your trade immediately after the news is announced, you may trade into the widened spread and immediately be stopped out.
  • #15,773
  • Feb 21, 2018 2:15pm Feb 21, 2018 2:15pm
Isnt the spread included in the stop loss? If you put a 20 stop loss before the 19 spread in the new release, you will only have a 1 pip real stop loss, so opening the trade before or after the new isnt relevant, can anyone explain this to me?
  • #15,774
  • Feb 22, 2018 12:28am Feb 22, 2018 12:28am
Quoting jonander50
Isnt the spread included in the stop loss? If you put a 20 stop loss before the 19 spread in the new release, you will only have a 1 pip real stop loss, so opening the trade before or after the new isnt relevant, can anyone explain this to me?

You're right. The spread is taken in consideration in the stop-loss, therefore, if you set a 21 pip SL and the spread is already 20 pips (after news), you will have the chance of only 1 pip movement before being taken out!

Otherwise, if that same trade is placed before news, the following will happen.

1. e.g. you place a trade at 8:29 AM, your at -1.4 spread
2. the spread widens 20 pips at 8:30 AM, although, you will be at: -1.4 pip + (20 pip / 2) spread = -11.4 pip
*instead of -20 if that trade was taken after news.

When a spread is widened to 20 pips but you ARE ALREADY IN A TRADE, your total loss is only half of this widened spread because you are concerned by only either the bid or ask price and not both... since you're already in!

Hence, placing a trade before the news privileges you in paying only half of the widened spread. It's like shopping on boxing day. 50% off nephews!
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,775
  • Feb 22, 2018 3:31am Feb 22, 2018 3:31am
Earlier I have seen EA with 2 buttons "buy" and "sell" with auto setiing of fixed SL and TP. But can't find now. Anybody have it or something similar? It could be useful for last minute orders before news.
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #15,776
  • Feb 23, 2018 11:28am Feb 23, 2018 11:28am
Quoting since80808
Earlier I have seen EA with 2 buttons "buy" and "sell" with auto setiing of fixed SL and TP. But can't find now. Anybody have it or something similar? It could be useful for last minute orders before news.
for his use simple market deep from metatrader.
push alt-B and put there in your TP and SL and then hit buy or sell. no expert neccessary
  • #15,777
  • Feb 25, 2018 3:32pm Feb 25, 2018 3:32pm
Quoting Tony112
{quote} The problem is that you pay the full spread»: e.g.20 pips if you enter before you pay half of the spread
Hi Tony!
Will you be kind to show us the target news for the week?
Thank you!
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #15,778
  • Feb 26, 2018 2:41am Feb 26, 2018 2:41am
Sorry, guys, but I want to ask one thing again
Why don't we open both sell and buy positions before news? If we are asure that there will be some big candles so we could get 120-17pips and not flip a coin.
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #15,779
  • Feb 26, 2018 7:15am Feb 26, 2018 7:15am
Quoting since80808
Sorry, guys, but I want to ask one thing again Why don't we open both sell and buy positions before news? If we are asure that there will be some big candles so we could get 120-17pips and not flip a coin.
Because you can easily get stopped out on both trades in a whipsaw.
  • #15,780
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:37am Feb 26, 2018 10:37am
Quoting billbss
{quote} Because you can easily get stopped out on both trades in a whipsaw.
Hi billbss
Do you have a modern way to avoid this whipsaw
Expert or smart trick???
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