Theorycrafting: how can this strategy lose?

One thing we can assume about the market: its gonna move, lets say we are at point 0 at the moment we can tell for sure the market is gonna reach point +30pips or point -30pips eventually.
So lets make a trade at point 0 lets randomly enter the market with buy (0.01lot) position and wait whats gonna happen.
Of course the market then proceeds to drop without failure so what we gonna do? When the market is at -10 position we are going to sell (0.02lots).
This shall stun the market for a brief moment but Murphy's law is still in effect so the market will now proceed to move up (we are loosing more from it going up so it will go that way. But when it will retrace back to position 0 we shall buy (0.02 lots).
We now have 0.03 lots up & 0.02 lots down so we have a net gain when market is moving up and thus it will start moving down again, and again we will sell 0.02lots when its at -10 and then again buy 0.02 when its at 0.
We will troll the market so hard it will finally give up trying to screw with us because no matter which direction it will move we will always be gaining net profit.
Eventually market will reach +30 or -30 and then we will cash in all our orders and no matter what we will be in profit.

So how can this go badly? Can we really run out of money when we only add +2 into our order size for every failure (with martingale we multiply x2 so it can stack up pretty fast). Lets say we have a 1000$ and we wanna play with 0.01 & 0.02 lots it would take 50 back and forths to flush us. Is it really possible?? Lets say we have 2000$... The gain might not be big but its 100% gain still. Basically anytime we open a position we have 25% chance for 3$ (when -10 is never reached we just get +30 pips with our initial 0.01 lots and thats 3$) or 1$ (when -10 is reached and then finally -30, 50% chance for that)) or 2$ (when -10 is reached and then +30, 25% chance)

Is there an error in my reasoning lets say we setup a robot 24/7 on 10 instruments simultaneously lets say it will make on average 1$/5h on each instrument (i'am thinking about the worst possible outcome every time cuz Murphy's law). And we still make 2$/h. Lets say we invest 10k into this (1k each instrument) in 208 days we will have 20k so we can double our entries or collect free money. I'am sure 48$/day can cover electricity bill for a laptop running non stop.

So you guys think this is a legit business plan?? Please share opinions.

Good luck with this. However, I think the spread you'll pay is going to get the better of you at some point.

Spread doesn't really add up as you will always enter at the same exact point, so if you go 5x 0.02 the spread will be the same as if you went 0.1 right away. Also it doesn't really matter when you exit either if your spread is really high you can aim at +35 or -35. I still need to work out best time efficient targets anyway.

Hi Ananas,
I have looked at concepts like this in the past and they always came up as losing propositions. To try to explain, for simplicity let's take a truncated example of your method by saying we can only buy at 0 twice and only sell at -10 twice, then we stop and wait for +/- 30 to happen. So your biggest possible positions are 3 longs (1 initially + possibly 2 more later) and 4 shorts (0 initially and with possibly 2 or 4 added in 1 or 2 visits to -10).

Now, just counting in pips won/lost:
1) goes directly 0 to -30: lose 30 on the 0 long, win 40 (2x20) on the -10 shorts = win 10 net
2) oscillation 0 to -10 to 0 to -30: lose 90 (3x30) on the longs, win 80 (4x20) on the shorts = lose 10 net
3) goes directly 0 to 30: win 30 net on the long, no shorts opened = win 30 net
4) oscillation 0 to -10 to 0 to 30: win 90 (3x30) on the longs, lose 80 (2x40) on the shorts = win 10 net
5) oscillation 0 to -10 to 0 to -10 to 30: win 90 (3x30) on the longs, lose 160 (4x40) on the shorts = lose 70 net

I think these are all the possible permutations if you simply stopped adding positions as described and then just waited for +/- 30 to happen. If you kept adding with each further oscillation as per your actual example you just get expanded multiples of what is presented in 1) to 5) above.

The numbers suggest a negative expectancy. If the maths hurts your brain (it does mine), real world circumstantial evidence that these kinds of strategies are fallacious is that no institution I know of trades these kinds of methods - and they have a lot of brains and processing power available to crank through all the possible permutations. If there were a sure-fire winner in there, you can be certain they would be trading it very large indeed.

I think, it’s a solid business plan! Hope for the best.

Thank you for this analysis i see it now that with every oscillation we would have to move our take profit further away to be in profit and in the end it might take a very long time.

Not everyone can be a trader. A person with determination, quest for knowledge, patience and good understanding ability can be a trader. And all these qualities can be achieved if one wants. But the problem is most people do not have that much will power. You should choose the career that you understand and like to do. You can not choose your career based on opportunity of huge profit.