Hey...what about Volume? | Page 14 | Forex Factory

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Hey...what about Volume?

  • #261
  • Feb 14, 2018 8:18am Feb 14, 2018 8:18am
Updates on a few trades: GBP/USD - short stopped out with 313 pips profit.
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AUD/USD - short:
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US CPI pushed price back my direction momentarily allowing my to move my stop down to lock in approximately 200 pips on the aggregate. At this point (day isn't over yet), the buying force does not look significant enough to cause me to close but I have moved the stop in tight. I might get stopped out if price goes back up to test today's high, but have the level from last week to (hopefully) absorb any further buying...we'll see. At any rate this trade will end positive.

Gold - long:
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Spread kept me out of my initial pending order but manual entry is working. Position is currently 300 pips to the plus side and stop is just over break even. Monthly and Weekly charts are showing growing buying delta and I believe I may hold this position to see if it will break to new highs.
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  • #262
  • Feb 14, 2018 2:20pm Feb 14, 2018 2:20pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} EUR/USD appears to be testing the under side of a previous balance area, and it is doing so on falling volume. While the delta shows that buying is dominating, it would appear the buying is insufficient volume to create interest...it is rip for being absorbed... I have not yet seen the selling exhaust on the daily chart, I could be wrong, but I'm willing to wait to see what the "mid-week reversal" brings, then lower my stop to this week's high. {image}

Well, mid-week is here and not quite the reversal it might have brought. Looks like its due to the fact that CPI put some energy in the market today. Largest affect can be seen on gold. As it stands, i'd like to see what happens when gold gets to around 1360 - 65 area before i short the EurUsd again. Dollar has room to the downside and S&P might be doing some recovering over the next couple of days. All this points to EU testing those highs around 1.2500 - 40 (forex prices). Don't really know what to say about bonds.

So all in all, i'm still looking for a short on the EU. Might get some action on tomorrows PPI.

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  • #263
  • Feb 14, 2018 3:08pm Feb 14, 2018 3:08pm
Quoting LookinGood
{quote} Well, mid-week is here and not quite the reversal it might have brought. ..
Yeah not quite what I was expecting as well...still holding short but I am of the opinion now that may be a mistake.
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  • #264
  • Feb 15, 2018 2:08pm Feb 15, 2018 2:08pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Yeah not quite what I was expecting as well...still holding short but I am of the opinion now that may be a mistake.
EU is testing those highs now.

I think this is a good time for a short. There was some good futures volume around the 1.2510 forex price. If nothing crazy happens over the weekend, i'm taking another short on Sunday.
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  • #265
  • Feb 16, 2018 8:18am Feb 16, 2018 8:18am
Update on WTI - Long:
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Price has risen above an order flow balance area, retested it and moved higher. I have moved my stop up to just over break even to protect the position. The position itself is just over 237 pips positive so with loss controlled I will hold this over the week end and look to take profit at the most recent high.
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  • #266
  • Feb 16, 2018 8:23am Feb 16, 2018 8:23am
Quoting LookinGood
{quote} EU is testing those highs now. I think this is a good time for a short. There was some good futures volume around the 1.2510 forex price. If nothing crazy happens over the weekend, i'm taking another short on Sunday. {image}
It would appear you are correct...there was some left over selling volume at the highs, and perhaps some longs taking profit. I am noticing (at least at this point) the today's volume is lower that previous days. Of course the day is not yet over, but it makes me wonder what next Monday will bring...I am still holding (with gritted teeth) my shorts but I'm not liking this at all. I can clearly see where I should've have exited my trade (in retrospect) even though I didn't make my target.

Another lesson learned...I wish you luck on your short...I have the nagging feeling we are going to watch the US dollar drop like a stone.
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  • #267
  • Feb 16, 2018 8:30am Feb 16, 2018 8:30am
Update on Gold - Long:
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The position is currently 380 (+/-) pips positive and seems to be pulling back from the highs. I suspect profit taking. However, the weekly chart is showing Climax volume as price reaches the same high. This usually indicates enough strength to push through on the following candles. So again, the waiting game. I may just divide the position and take 1/2 profit at the highs and let the remaining portion run.
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  • #268
  • Feb 19, 2018 12:55pm Feb 19, 2018 12:55pm
Hello all. I have been absent lately... unfortunately I have a family member in the hospital and will not be able to communicate with any consistency. I would like to encourage you to please continue commenting and researching this subject on your own. I was hoping for more participation but am still hoping that will occur soon.
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  • #269
  • Edited 10:42am Feb 20, 2018 6:26am | Edited 10:42am
Quoting DonPato
Hello all. I have been absent lately... unfortunately I have a family member in the hospital and will not be able to communicate with any consistency. I would like to encourage you to please continue commenting and researching this subject on your own. I was hoping for more participation but am still hoping that will occur soon.
Sorry to hear that. Hope all turns out well.

Quoting LookinGood
{quote} EU is testing those highs now. I think this is a good time for a short. There was some good futures volume around the 1.2510 forex price. If nothing crazy happens over the weekend, i'm taking another short on Sunday. {image}
Well, i didn't take that additional short on Sunday. At the time i looked at the market i felt as if it could go up more, i may have had a misread on gold and the dollar. I also didn't spend much time gathering an opinion so i stayed flat. In hindsight, a popular method of analysis, it would have been a good short. So i'm only in from my prior short.

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  • #270
  • Feb 21, 2018 7:16am Feb 21, 2018 7:16am
Quoting LookinGood
{quote} Well, mid-week is here and not quite the reversal it might have brought. Looks like its due to the fact that CPI put some energy in the market today. Largest affect can be seen on gold. As it stands, i'd like to see what happens when gold gets to around 1360 - 65 area before i short the EurUsd again. Dollar has room to the downside and S&P might be doing some recovering over the next couple of days. All this points to EU testing those highs around 1.2500 - 40 (forex prices). Don't really know what to say about bonds. So all in all, i'm still...
Closed this short this morning.
Result was just above 3R. Decided to close the position. Gold looked like it wanted to go up some, dollar looked like it was time for a down move, S&P may have wanted to continue its up move. All this is just a big maybe, so rather than possibly giving back the gains i decided to just take em.

What went as planned.
Waited for the entry, took the planned entry at the planned price.

What didn't go as planned.
I did not take the Sunday entry as i stated i would.

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  • #271
  • Feb 21, 2018 7:30am Feb 21, 2018 7:30am
Quoting LookinGood
{quote} Closed this short this morning. Result was just above 3R. Decided to close the position. Gold looked like it wanted to go up some, dollar looked like it was time for a down move, S&P may have wanted to continue its up move. All this is just a big maybe, so rather than possibly giving back the gains i decided to just take em. What went as planned. Waited for the entry, took the planned entry at the planned price. What didn't go as planned. I did not take the Sunday entry as i stated i would. {image} {image}
Well Done!! Those kinds of trades make you feel really powerful, don't they?
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  • #272
  • Feb 21, 2018 12:29pm Feb 21, 2018 12:29pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Well Done!! Those kinds of trades make you feel really powerful, don't they?
Lol yes, i guess powerful is one of the feelings.
  • #273
  • Feb 21, 2018 2:00pm Feb 21, 2018 2:00pm
I had the idea to short the CAD earlier today before FOMC came out but i decided to wait and see what happens. Now i'm unsure of if i want to go that route. FOMC really shakes things up. I may short the EU again tomorrow. I'll let the dust settle a bit then see if i'll do anything before tomorrows reports come out.
  • #274
  • Feb 21, 2018 8:57pm Feb 21, 2018 8:57pm
Thanks for this thread, very informative
  • #275
  • Feb 22, 2018 5:39pm Feb 22, 2018 5:39pm
Quoting JohnyIve89
Thanks for this thread, very informative
I'm glad you found something of value here. Please feel free to contribute and participate.
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  • #276
  • Feb 24, 2018 8:52am Feb 24, 2018 8:52am
Quoting DonPato
Update on Gold - Long: {image} The position is currently 380 (+/-) pips positive and seems to be pulling back from the highs. I suspect profit taking. However, the weekly chart is showing Climax volume as price reaches the same high. This usually indicates enough strength to push through on the following candles. So again, the waiting game. I may just divide the position and take 1/2 profit at the highs and let the remaining portion run.

hellow donpato can you share with me volume indicator?
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  • #277
  • Feb 25, 2018 9:34am Feb 25, 2018 9:34am
Quoting scalper16
hellow donpato can you share with me volume indicator?
Mr Scalper. I will try to be diplomatic and reserved in this reply. I do not wish to offend you or any other reader. It took me several years of tearing my hair out to come up with and be consistent with my current method and the idea and coding for this indicator is the result of several years of diligent study and logic (not my strong suit). Further it came at some financial cost to find a coder willing to sit down with me and code this simple yet IHO elegant indicator. I'm sure you can understand my unwillingness to "share" it or give it away for free.

However there is good news. If you use MT4 one of the readers here posted a publicly available indicator that comes really close to my coding. You can find it here on this thread. I invite you to read it in its entirety and benefit from the many opinions expressed here.
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  • #278
  • Feb 26, 2018 1:48am Feb 26, 2018 1:48am
Try with these. Based on 1m volume for anything <= H1 so get as much 1m data as possible.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 DeltaX - Cumd.ex4   17 KB | 751 downloads
File Type: ex4 DeltaX.ex4   97 KB | 779 downloads
  • #279
  • Feb 26, 2018 7:13am Feb 26, 2018 7:13am
Quote
Mr Scalper. I will try to be diplomatic and reserved in this reply. I do not wish to offend you or any other reader. It took me several years of tearing my hair out to come up with and be consistent with my current method and the idea and coding for this indicator is the result of several years of diligent study and logic (not my strong suit). Further it came at some financial cost to find a coder willing to sit down with me and code this simple yet IHO elegant indicator. I'm sure you can understand my unwillingness to "share" it or give it away...


thank you invite me sir
gold analysis short

Regard
scalper16
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  • #280
  • Feb 26, 2018 9:00am Feb 26, 2018 9:00am
Quoting scalper16
thank you invite me sir gold analysis short Regard scalper16
This looks like a nice scalp...it would appear to me that you could've exited much sooner with more profit if you read the selling exhaustion signal at the bottom...it looks like you stopped out while waiting for more.

Just my opinion...if you have decided you are going for short term profits, I have found that setting a limit and taking that produces much greater profits than trying to "ride the trend". Yes you do have those days when you get a big move...but from the scalping perspective you can get greater consistency and greater profits overall by setting a limit and taking profits when that is hit. For me the magic number seems to be 2.5xR
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