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  • #121
  • Feb 11, 2018 6:31am Feb 11, 2018 6:31am
Quoting Stephen Thom
{quote} This, right here, is the truth. Those who are losing money should take note and go and learn about market structure. Forget about all indicators-if you don't know market structure you can never trade profitably over a long period of time, and if you do understand market structure you will realise that you don't need or want those indicators. There are lots of free resources out there to learn about this and it is very simple, works on any time-frame. Really, do yourself a favour and learn this stuff, you won't regret it.
Well I happened to be a price structural trader too and I trade purely on excel spread sheet instead of chart. Which pairs are you having success with? I traded eurusd, au, uj and xau. We should do some live calls here maybe someday? What is your current take on those pairs above going forward based on price dynamics?
Always nice to know someone using the same trading methodology and hopefully we both can put this mystical question to rest either way.

Cheers
GS
  • #122
  • Feb 11, 2018 6:36am Feb 11, 2018 6:36am
Yes if you've got an edge.
...
  • #123
  • Feb 11, 2018 7:19am Feb 11, 2018 7:19am
And identifying supply and demand, bullish and bearish conditions, is actually incredibly simple, even on basic retail platforms.

Quoting The Cableguy
{quote} What he said ^^^ As soon as i see indicator based methods, it's time to yawn. Not once is simple market structure, Supply/Demand mentioned...
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #124
  • Feb 11, 2018 7:23am Feb 11, 2018 7:23am
Quoting Spreadbetter
And identifying supply and demand, bullish and bearish conditions, is actually incredibly simple, even on basic retail platforms. {quote}
Yep, all you gotta do is look left!

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  • #125
  • Feb 11, 2018 7:32am Feb 11, 2018 7:32am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Well I happened to be a price structural trader too and I trade purely on excel spread sheet instead of chart. Which pairs are you having success with? I traded eurusd, au, uj and xau. We should do some live calls here maybe someday? What is your current take on those pairs above going forward based on price dynamics? Always nice to know someone using the same trading methodology and hopefully we both can put this mystical question to rest either way. Cheers GS
Hi GS, i trade all the majors but no exotics and not xau due to the spread. My take on the above pairs you mention is that e/u h1 & h4 looks like it is heading towards 2160 ish and maybe lower but is obviously subject to increased volatility due to Brexit negotiations. Au just broke support at 7800 ish and might not find support again until 7700 ish. Uj is actually in a huge range D1 with downward bias as it makes its way to the bottom of that range where it is now. What happens next will determine bias for the next few weeks. Will it make its way back into the range or break out? We will see in the coming days. Would be happy to do some live calls.

Regards
Steve
  • #127
  • Feb 11, 2018 7:42am Feb 11, 2018 7:42am
Quoting The Cableguy
{quote} Yep, all you gotta do is look left! {image}
This is all of it-simple.
  • #128
  • Feb 11, 2018 7:47am Feb 11, 2018 7:47am
Quoting Stephen Thom
{quote} Hi GS, i trade all the majors but no exotics and not xau due to the spread. My take on the above pairs you mention is that e/u h1 & h4 looks like it is heading towards 2160 ish and maybe lower but is obviously subject to increased volatility due to Brexit negotiations. Au just broke support at 7800 ish and might not find support again until 7700 ish. Uj is actually in a huge range D1 with downward bias as it makes its way to the bottom of that range where it is now. What happens next will determine bias for the next few weeks. Will it make...
TQ Steve for the prompt respond and nice analysis on EU and as long as it stay below 12311 it will be testing 12100 handle. My live call next week is to watch if 12290 holds if it does I will short her from12256 upward with 12290 as sl and tp at minimum 2x my stop. First day of wk is usually tricky but that's my take on EU going forward.

Cheers
GS
  • #130
  • Feb 11, 2018 7:53am Feb 11, 2018 7:53am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} TQ Steve for the prompt respond and nice analysis on EU and as long as it stay below 12311 it will be testing 12100 handle. My live call next week is to watch if 12290 holds if it does I will short her from12256 upward with 12290 as sl and tp at minimum 2x my stop. First day of wk is usually tricky but that's my take on EU going forward. Cheers GS
Yes 1.2250 ish is a great level having previously been support and then that false breakout down to 1.2225 and your stop above the previous highs is perfect, just the way i would do it. That is something i will be looking at tomorrow. Good luck with it.

Regards
Steve
  • #131
  • Feb 11, 2018 8:02am Feb 11, 2018 8:02am
Quoting The Cableguy
{quote} What he said ^^^ As soon as i see indicator based methods, it's time to yawn. Not once is simple market structure, Supply/Demand mentioned...
Actually there are indicator based methods that do show market structure if the indicators are tuned correctly. ForexAlien comes to mind here. You can actually tune indicators to lead the next move if you know what they do and why they do what they do.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #132
  • Feb 11, 2018 8:10am Feb 11, 2018 8:10am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I disagree. Iterative refinement is all about getting the real answer closer to the theoretical. It was designed to help with rounding errors. So your backtest says X should happen, but your forward test says X-1 is what happened. Iterative refinement, and using the process that it entails modified for any learning tasks, will eventually weed out enough trading errors for a trader to go into the black. But this is a lot of work, and most traders simply do not last that long.
you backtest is without your own volume/trades inside, what changes it a lot when you trade not small values, of course what you say you need do integrade, this circle calculation are very complex and important.
but when without this x is later in forward test x-1, then something was wrong with backtest. over time people learn how to backtest more accurate or system is not correct . maybe they used only statistical calculated edges, that can often break away and so its normal that x can be x-1 and next month x+1, .....

but with my answer is was more answering to your sentence of the 2 people in school you compared. i thought this was in comparing to hard work for forex? maybe i did understand you wrong in this point.
  • #133
  • Feb 11, 2018 8:10am Feb 11, 2018 8:10am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Actually there are indicator based methods that do show market structure if the indicators are tuned correctly. ForexAlien comes to mind here. You can actually tune indicators to lead the next move if you know what they do and why they do what they do.
But why would you?

There is no way an EA or any indicator can make the discretionary decisions that are necessary in taking a trade...

HH/HL/s LL/LH's and then a huge dollop of experience to match up which cycles are which. PA is as simple as it gets, everyone just wants to complicate matters using indicators all of the time.
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #134
  • Feb 11, 2018 8:15am Feb 11, 2018 8:15am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I know that the average delusional retail forex enthusiast must rationalize placing bets in the market with the idea that they are doing something like "brain surgery". This is how "gurus and commercial elements" can sell their crap and get away with it: "of course people lose, not many can be a brain surgeon or a rocket scientist" and that level of proficiency is what it take to apply my system successful" So again, I am asking you: how you can rationalize a comparison of a true field of research and applied science that benefits society...
I think most everyone understands the points I'm making. So one last time for you slow learners. Trading is as difficult to learn and succeed at as the professions I listed. It requires the same effort, dedication and commitment as them, and requires the same learning approach and processes as those professions. These are the things that winners do to succeed. I suppose others who don't get these points will stutter and fuss about how unfair it is that some people succeed and they have failed, but the world is full of people like that (like you).

For you, trading is a gamble because you are not smart enough, mature enough, or patient enough to trade. You have failed at trading, and like all the other trolls, you are in that phase of failure where you sit around and blame the market, your broker, an ad on TV, or some other external factor. Your failure, along with you enormous ego, are driving you to share your "wisdom" and "trading experience". But in the final analysis, you're only wise about how to fail, and your trading experience is toxic to others. Your little mind is full of rage and anger about forex trading. We get that. But perhaps, now is the time for some self reflection and an honest assessment about yourself and why you continue to fail at this and the other little adventure you've tried in your life. Hope to see you emerge from this state of loathsome troll to something a little more positive and constructive. Best wishes.
  • #135
  • Feb 11, 2018 8:27am Feb 11, 2018 8:27am
It has got far less to do with how clever, smart, or intelligent a person is and far more to do with how calm natured you are.

Having the ability to trade like a robot and take all the trades that qualify your system or method, your 'edge' is the difference between winning and losing.

Let me explain how it works, (and this is THE fact why everyone loses), you start the session, you see a set-up, but you hesitate, you're not sure.... you leave it, it goes on to be a winner. You curse, but feel more positive because you recognised it in the first place. You see another set-up a little later, this time, it reacts too fast for you and again, you hesitated and missed the perfect entry. You do the right thing in not chasing it. It goes on to win. The frustration builds, but now you are confident that you have a winning system.

You trade the next set-up, that is the loser and your confidence dwindles again. Back to square one. Rinse/repeat.

A calm mannered person can trade each set-up win or lose and in doing so has conquered his fear and is a successful trader.

It takes years to find a really genuine 'edge', but that's when the real challenge begins and everyone who needs indicators which lag PA to make decisions for them, have not even begun this process.
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #136
  • Edited 8:51am Feb 11, 2018 8:40am | Edited 8:51am
I spent many years tweaking this and that, trying to improve the win ratio, but in the end, your criteria make it that you barely find any set-ups in a day. You spend hour after hour at the screen, your discipline can not hold off the desire to want to trade, so you cheat a little...

What is the point of developing such criteria if they don't occur often enough. You will likely miss a set-up when it comes along anyway, whilst you are occupying your time watching youtube clips or on social media etc

That is not the way forward and the wrong approach.

Find something that moves. A lot. Take the NQ for example. You literally only need to trade the first hour after open each day. That's all. Take every set-up that you see and there will be several, if you have the right method.

Why wait for daily or weekly candles? That is trying to apply percentages to your returns and yes, you need a huge amount of money to get a decent return viewing your trading in that way. Whatever a market does on a daily chart, it also does on a fast tick rate chart, so scale it.

Trading a single contract requires less than $2k in a Futures account. Bag your self 40 ticks a day and you are making $200 a day/$1k a week and yes that does equate to 50% a week of your starting capital.
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #137
  • Feb 11, 2018 8:51am Feb 11, 2018 8:51am
Quoting The Cableguy
I spent many years tweaking this and that, trying to improve the win ratio, but in the end, your criteria make it that you barely find any set-ups in a day. You spend hour after hour at the screen, your discipline can not hold off the desire to want to trade, so you cheat a little... What is the point of developing such criteria if they don't occur often enough. You will likely miss a set-up when it comes along anyway, whilst you are occupying your time watching youtube clips or on social media etc That is not the way forward and the wrong approach....
Yes.
  • #138
  • Feb 11, 2018 9:03am Feb 11, 2018 9:03am
I am looking at nzd/usd for a potential sell tomorrow. Price is currently sat where previous support was 0.7252 (which should become resistance) and is also in an ascending wedge pattern which in itself usually results in a down move. If price bounces off this current level and then out of the channel next potential support is at 0.7180 and a stop at 0.7290 should be ok giving us almost 2:1 rr.
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  • #139
  • Feb 11, 2018 9:10am Feb 11, 2018 9:10am
Quoting The Cableguy
{quote} But why would you? There is no way an EA or any indicator can make the discretionary decisions that are necessary in taking a trade... HH/HL/s LL/LH's and then a huge dollop of experience to match up which cycles are which. PA is as simple as it gets, everyone just wants to complicate matters using indicators all of the time.
I do because I want to know the best indicator systems out there. I will front run them most likely, but that is me. For the beginner and the intermediate, indicators are important until they can read price bar by bar. I think that indicator based systems, that are properly tuned, can really help a newer trader.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #140
  • Feb 11, 2018 9:13am Feb 11, 2018 9:13am
Newbegger,

I feel as though we have gotten away from your initial thoughts with this thread. I would suggest you either set some strict rules in regards to what you want to see, or start a new thread with a different title. Having "Can YOU make money as a trader?" as your title is like dropping a Hydrogen bomb on an already burning fire.

If you really wish to "post my thoughts on making money as a trader" and "go over what I think is the mindset you need as a trader, to be able to take money from the beast that wants to devour any trading capital you feed it", then I suggest you take control of your thread, haha

I have been waiting to see what you have to say, but this has fallen into the typical thread trap of people saying you can and can't trade successfully. This can go on for days, weeks, months, etc. I will admit, your title is rather deceptive because it opens the thread up to exactly what is happening at the moment. Random comments from people about why you can or why you can't make money as a trader.

Maybe a title of "How I Came to Make Money as a Trader" would best illustrate your point?

Best of luck to all.
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