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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #6,061
  • Feb 6, 2018 5:54am Feb 6, 2018 5:54am
Quoting Lock
..... In case of continuation downside remember the possible strong support offered by trend line 2009.01.23-2016.02.29. Also note the GB poor low at 39153 that could be removed in case of continuation. Finally, remember balance rules both in case of success or failure downside.
Here we are eventually, 39153 tagged. Now it is weaker than before. Btw I've been totally mesmerized by price action up and down inside GB week low 39795. So I have to admit that I lost money into that situation and I'm currently only covering such loss. But it's my fault. Too much impatience at open.
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  • #6,062
  • Feb 6, 2018 5:59am Feb 6, 2018 5:59am
If this attempted breakout from inside week balance will be confirmed, next weaknesses are:

  1. 38575 (Tokyo 01.22 poor low)
  2. 38205 (GB 01.18 poor low)
  3. 3805 (Back to Back 01.18 Tokyo and Sydney poor lows)

Obviously this could be possible only if this attempted GB weekly break will be confirmed and accepted (below 39153)

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  • #6,063
  • Feb 6, 2018 6:01am Feb 6, 2018 6:01am
So remembered what I wrote about the possible strong support offered by trend line 2009.01.23-2016.02.29
Let's see if we could get rid of it. Or not.
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  • #6,064
  • Feb 6, 2018 7:28am Feb 6, 2018 7:28am
Now, preUS opened below a previous pit gap upside (38825-3918). If it will continue lower from here, at pit open we will have a double pass pit gap in this zone, as pit will open with a new gap downside from yesterday pit low 39543. So, in order to continue lower towards 38205, 3805 and eventually pit poor low 37925, a good first step will be to preserve current situation (a new possible gap downside and pit open below yesterday pit spike base at 3988)

Remember that we are just above the cluster of main levels we used to consider during previous weeks: meaning 3853(Pit), 38428(PreUS) and 38355 (GB). So give them the respect they deserve.
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  • #6,065
  • Feb 6, 2018 7:30am Feb 6, 2018 7:30am
Quoting Lock
If this attempted breakout from inside week balance will be confirmed, next weaknesses are: 38575 (Tokyo 01.22 poor low) 38205 (GB 01.18 poor low) 3805 (Back to Back 01.18 Tokyo and Sydney poor lows) Obviously this could be possible only if this attempted GB weekly break will be confirmed and accepted (below 39153)
38575 clearly weaker than before as it is a perfect tag.
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  • #6,066
  • Feb 6, 2018 7:39am Feb 6, 2018 7:39am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 38575 clearly weaker than before as it is a perfect tag.
38575 taken out as expected.
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  • #6,067
  • Feb 6, 2018 7:40am Feb 6, 2018 7:40am
Quoting Lock
.... Remember that we are just above the cluster of main levels we used to consider during previous weeks: meaning 3853(Pit), 38428(PreUS) and 38355 (GB). So give them the respect they deserve.
Testing pit 3853.
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  • #6,068
  • Feb 6, 2018 7:42am Feb 6, 2018 7:42am
Quoting Lock
Remember that we are just above the cluster of main levels we used to consider during previous weeks: meaning 3853(Pit), 38428(PreUS) and 38355 (GB). So give them the respect they deserve.
We need to stay below them for any serious continuation downside. If not watch out for correction. Note that the lowest one is a perfect tag again. 38355.
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  • #6,069
  • Feb 6, 2018 9:00am Feb 6, 2018 9:00am
Quoting Lock
{quote} We need to stay below them for any serious continuation downside. If not watch out for correction. Note that the lowest one is a perfect tag again. 38355.
So preUS has not been able to obtain acceptation below our main levels and we got a full correction upside of more than 50 pips.
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  • #6,070
  • Edited 9:15am Feb 6, 2018 9:03am | Edited 9:15am
Now, pit US opened with a new gap downside from yesterday pit low 39543. After open it attempted to fill the double pass zone 38825-3918 I was speaking about previously. Now, let's see, because if the new gap will be preserved, odds will be in favor to continuation downside or at least balance.
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  • #6,071
  • Feb 6, 2018 9:26am Feb 6, 2018 9:26am
It could build an inside period. In the case: balance rules will apply. I'm off for today. Too tired. Have a nice continuation. Best, L.
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  • #6,072
  • Feb 6, 2018 4:07pm Feb 6, 2018 4:07pm
Quoting Lock
..... Remember that we are just above the cluster of main levels we used to consider during previous weeks: meaning 3853(Pit), 38428(PreUS) and 38355 (GB). So give them the respect they deserve.
Quoting Lock
{quote} We need to stay below them for any serious continuation downside. If not watch out for correction. Note that the lowest one is a perfect tag again. 38355.
Quoting Lock
Now, pit US opened with a new gap downside from yesterday pit low 39543. After open it attempted to fill the double pass zone 38825-3918 I was speaking about previously. Now, let's see, because if the new gap will be preserved, odds will be in favor to continuation downside or at least balance.
Quoting Lock
It could build an inside period. In the case: balance rules will apply. I'm off for today. Too tired. Have a nice continuation. Best, L.
So preUS opened and went through 3853 and 38428 only to tag, at the pip, 38355. There it stopped and started to retrace upside, as expected because price didn't find acceptation below main references.

Pit opened with a new gap downside but just below an old gap upside (now double pass 38825-3918). Then it went into balance (inside m30 period). From balance it attempted downside where price failed again to obtain acceptation below main references, only managing to tag exactly 3853 (pit reference).

After this clear failure it went back to the opposite side of balance and broke out upside starting the filling of the new pit gap downside (balance rules perfectly applied here).

At that moment in time, knowing that both preUS and pit participants had failed to get acceptation below any of the main references below, there were multiple reasons to go with the rally: the clear failure downside (below major refs), the old double pass gap 38825-3918, the extremely elongated GB session downside. So it went up and filled completely the new pit gap downside up to yesterday pit low 39543. Then it started to balance.
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  • #6,073
  • Feb 9, 2018 1:02am Feb 9, 2018 1:02am
2018/02/09 FRIDAY 08:02 +1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

During the last two days price tested again the main references downside (3853, 38428 and 38355): both times it failed to get acceptation below them. Interesting enough is the fact that in doing so price action left downside a couple more of bad weaknesses: an other pit poor low at 38483 and a GB poor low at 38455. And these new weak levels piled on the already existing cluster of weak levels below our main references: 38205, 3805 and 37925. Furthermore yesterday pit action removed completely any weaknesses left previously upside (a lot of poor highs of previous sessions).

So from this particular standpoint the doors for a liquidation downside in order to get rid of all those weaknesses left downside should be opened. But, at the same time, we cannot forget the fact that we never obtained acceptation below our main lower references. And this simple fact should not be underestimated.

Now, in order to have a better idea of current odds we could scale down our point of view and take into consideration yesterday GB session. As you saw, yesterday GB session opened inside previous GB inside session, attempted lower, failed downside, and as a consequence (textbook balance rules) it went upside to the opposite side of balance with a notable spike upside.

So, in my opinion this spike could offer some clue at next GB opening. As we know its base (at 3908) and we know spike rules: an open above spike base could mean that a further attempt upside could be needed in order to evaluate the success or failure of yesterday attempt upside. An open below spike base, could instead mean that the yesterday upside attempt could be considered as a failure.

Then, just to refine our observations we could take into consideration yesterday GB close level at 3926: again, acceptation above or below it could significantly increase or reduce odds in favor of continuation upside or rejection to a new test downside.
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  • #6,074
  • Feb 9, 2018 1:24am Feb 9, 2018 1:24am
Maybe I forget an essential element in my report: All what we have seen in the last days is about success or failure of the attempted breakout from weekly balance. SO it is fundamental to underline last inside week extremes because acceptation or rejection above those levels could clearly offer the best clues about next market direction.
So they are (as already written multiple times previously):

  1. for GB 39795
  2. for Pit 4025

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  • #6,075
  • Feb 9, 2018 1:40am Feb 9, 2018 1:40am
Quoting Lock
... SO it is fundamental to underline last inside week extremes because acceptation or rejection above those levels could clearly offer the best clues about next market direction. So they are (as already written multiple times previously): for GB 39795 for Pit 4025
Remember also that in case of acceptation above these lower extremes of last inside week, we could consider the attempted break downside as a failure. So, because we are applying balance rules, in that specific case we then will be able to aim at opposite side of balance, meaning last inside week higher extremes: GB 42745 and Pit 4278 (that, btw, as written previously, it is a very rare month high, being a weak and poor one)
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  • #6,076
  • Feb 9, 2018 2:36am Feb 9, 2018 2:36am
Quoting Lock
.... SO it is fundamental to underline last inside week extremes because acceptation or rejection above those levels could clearly offer the best clues about next market direction. So they are (as already written multiple times previously): for GB 39795 for Pit 4025
Surely you have noted that GB opened less than 1 single pip below 39795...
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  • #6,077
  • Feb 9, 2018 2:44am Feb 9, 2018 2:44am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Surely you have noted that GB opened less than 1 single pip below 39795...
And here we are back to it, as normal. Note that now it is weak but also poor high.
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  • #6,078
  • Feb 9, 2018 2:46am Feb 9, 2018 2:46am
Monitor very carefully for acceptation or rejection above 39785 as there are big odds that this level could make our day.
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  • #6,079
  • Edited 4:08am Feb 9, 2018 3:58am | Edited 4:08am
Quoting Lock
Monitor very carefully for acceptation or rejection above 39785 as there are big odds that this level could make our day.
It has been rejected and as you see the entire action downside originated exactly from 39785.

But now we are testing 3926 yesterday GB close. Remember that for any serious continuation downside, acceptation below it and below yesterday GB spike base 3908 is required*. If not, remember that current high 39785 is weak and poor.

*In fact in the early morning report I wrote:

Quoting Lock
2018/02/09 .... So, in my opinion this spike could offer some clue at next GB opening. As we know its base (at 3908) and we know spike rules.... take into consideration yesterday GB close level at 3926: again, acceptation above or below it could significantly increase or reduce odds in favor of continuation upside or rejection to a new test downside.
It's worth to note that the entire GB session is exactly contained inside the levels I underlined this morning. And this is not important in order to stress my exactness but it is important to understand who is in control of current market action, because, as you know, only weak hands use exact references to operate.
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  • #6,080
  • Feb 9, 2018 4:10am Feb 9, 2018 4:10am
Hi, you mention weak highs/lows a lot. Could you describe what a "strong" high/low is and maybe show an example on a chart? Thanks.
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