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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #36,321
  • Jan 31, 2018 10:05am Jan 31, 2018 10:05am
Quoting mansan
{quote} Weak NSL ... now maybe deep correction?
Something like this would be nice
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veni vidi vici
  • #36,322
  • Jan 31, 2018 10:05am Jan 31, 2018 10:05am
Quoting Nikster
Not a great day 3 trades, 3 expectationfaillures and thus 3 losses. If only my second wasn't stopped out...{image}
I got my ass kick too -70 points $700. We can't win everyday or no one will play with us.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #36,323
  • Jan 31, 2018 10:07am Jan 31, 2018 10:07am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Nice!
thanks!
  • #36,324
  • Jan 31, 2018 10:09am Jan 31, 2018 10:09am
Quoting mansan
{quote} Weak NSL ... now maybe deep correction?
We've hit a 1:1 from the swing that started at 26310, I'm going to be looking for a pullback against that to the the 61% around 26261 where we also have great structure. Not sure we have enough time to get there in my session, and we may blow right through that 1:1 and keep moving down.
  • #36,325
  • Jan 31, 2018 10:12am Jan 31, 2018 10:12am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} I got my ass kick too -70 points $700. We can't win everyday or no one will play with us.
I think that only my first trade could be questionable since it corrected almost 100% but the other 2 was nothing wrong, right? I just want to make sure I didn't make any mistake
  • #36,326
  • Jan 31, 2018 10:19am Jan 31, 2018 10:19am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} bmdenton can you help me to understand what is the correlation between 38.2% retracement of the prior move down to your stop loss from the stand point of technical analysis of the current move up?
FROM YESTERDAY

Coreg2004, I've added a few more labels to the screenshot, the 38%, 50%, 61.8% all just server as possible areas for price to pullback against me. Typical AB=CD completion strategy calls for getting to a break even when price retraces to the 38% of the larger swing containing ABC&D, and taking profit around the 61.8. Remember of course that in this strategy you're counter trend trading against the expectation, so more likely than not, price will come back and fulfill the expectation. In this particular case it did not and moved up.
You can see that price did indeed react to the 38, the 50, and went a little higher than the 61.8.
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  • #36,327
  • Jan 31, 2018 10:20am Jan 31, 2018 10:20am
Quoting waqz12345
+40. messed up on atm, ignore the second entry (LOL - still getting used to NT8 clearly) {image}
waqz, nice job, I took this same trade...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 03-18 (233 Tick) 1_31_2018.jpg Size: 215 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #36,328
  • Jan 31, 2018 10:24am Jan 31, 2018 10:24am
Quoting Nikster
{quote} I think that only my first trade could be questionable since it corrected almost 100% but the other 2 was nothing wrong, right? I just want to make sure I didn't make any mistake
You are good just the way it goes sometimes
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #36,329
  • Jan 31, 2018 10:40am Jan 31, 2018 10:40am
internet is acting up. Couldn't place any trades tonight
  • #36,330
  • Jan 31, 2018 10:41am Jan 31, 2018 10:41am
Long on the Longer term again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 03-18 (1597 Tick) 2018_01_31.png Size: 64 KB
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #36,331
  • Jan 31, 2018 10:52am Jan 31, 2018 10:52am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Long on the Longer term again {image}
What exactly made you decide to start your scale in? I do see a rotation, your entry is below it, can't tell if your entry was before or after the rotation?

I do see 1:1 against on the short time frame, and confluence with the 38, and some structure from yesterday morning ?
  • #36,332
  • Jan 31, 2018 11:05am Jan 31, 2018 11:05am
Yuck. Today stunk.

-21, -38, +3, -16

= -72

On the wrong side of everything today. Looking back it's clear. Keep trying to predict turning points instead of trading what's there.

Back at it tomorrow...
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  • #36,333
  • Jan 31, 2018 11:15am Jan 31, 2018 11:15am
Short again
Risky but who knows
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veni vidi vici
  • #36,334
  • Jan 31, 2018 11:19am Jan 31, 2018 11:19am
Quoting mansan
Short again Risky but who knows {image}
Me too 26181, half position size (update added the other 1/2, avg price now 16189)
Come on bears
  • #36,335
  • Jan 31, 2018 11:29am Jan 31, 2018 11:29am
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} FROM YESTERDAY Coreg2004, I've added a few more labels to the screenshot, the 38%, 50%, 61.8% all just server as possible areas for price to pullback against me. Typical AB=CD completion strategy calls for getting to a break even when price retraces to the 38% of the larger swing containing ABC&D, and taking profit around the 61.8. Remember of course that in this strategy you're counter trend trading against the expectation, so more likely than not, price will come back and fulfill the expectation. In this particular case it did not and...
bmdenton, I understand your chart quite well, I only don't see the relation between 38.2% retracement of a prior move to the downside with your stop loss.... do you have stats how many times in this particular situation your stop loss (trailing stop) survived in the past? because based on my knowledge of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Principals or Harmonic patterns, you should be stoped out 99/100, but it's me and the way I trade. I live long enough to know that not only one route can get you to Mount Everest.
Below is the chart I posted some time ago to show how deep retracement you can expect after a market had 3 moves up. Of course, shallow retracements happen too. Good luck with your trading and stay green.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #36,336
  • Jan 31, 2018 11:38am Jan 31, 2018 11:38am
These expectation failures are getting old today. Getting close to another one
  • #36,337
  • Jan 31, 2018 11:54am Jan 31, 2018 11:54am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} bmdenton, I understand your chart quite well, I only don't see the relation between 38.2% retracement of a prior move to the downside with your stop loss.... do you have stats how many times in this particular situation your stop loss (trailing stop) survived in the past? because based on my knowledge of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Principals or Harmonic patterns, you should be stoped out 99/100, but it's me and the way I trade. I live long enough to know that not only one route can get you to Mount Everest. Below is the chart I posted some...
Coreg I don't take ABCD completions that often and don't keep statistics based on the pattern traded, though that's a good idea. I do think that Damian teaches getting to B/E at the 38%. In this particular example, the 3 drives pattern was contained within the ABCD bearish move and added some nice pattern completion confluence but I don't know how that affects the likelihood that getting to breakeven at the 38% comes back to stop you out at BE.
  • #36,338
  • Jan 31, 2018 12:10pm Jan 31, 2018 12:10pm
down -0,13% for the day.

Missed these 2 trades because internet was acting up and had to make some calls...
Would of been a 5% day today, but sometimes it just is what it is, give yourself a couple of mins to get over it, and then continue what you need to do, making trades according to your trading plan! Lets go team, we got this!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #36,339
  • Edited 3:45pm Jan 31, 2018 1:06pm | Edited 3:45pm
Could not trade at US open. Took this trade on YM (+106). Looks a bit weird. However, took this trade based on the structure of 233Tick chart.

Update: Finally took another trade (1 entry) which ended with -20
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  • #36,340
  • Jan 31, 2018 4:25pm Jan 31, 2018 4:25pm
Ouch, finished the day -112 pts, 5 losers, 4 breakevens, worst day I've had in several months.

January results:
129 trades (avg 6 trades/day)
77 winners
52 losers
Winning days: 15
Losing days: 6
60% w/l
2.26 profit factor
.90 W/L ratio thanks to today's results
-----------------------------------------------
avg: 20 pts / day
+420 points
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