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The REAL Traders Video Journal, 3-5% per month as a US trader

  • #841
  • Jan 23, 2018 5:31am Jan 23, 2018 5:31am
Great, thanks for the fast reply and sharing your positions, it helps with own entries.
I only checked the date of the video but not the exact time...
  • #842
  • Edited 3:06pm Jan 28, 2018 4:48am | Edited 3:06pm
Hi Ryan, I have been doing a lot of optimization on gbpcad. I try to test the major draw down periods or years, for example on Nov, 2013. I then optimize other time periods that are choppy price action, and also optimize all history possible , for example 2007-present. I get so confused and dont know how to amend all these settings, inputs for the perfect EA. Any suggestions. I am very curious on how you eventually came up with your settings and in putss?. Was in from optimizations?
Thanks !
I also notice that while doing these back tests my personality and emotions are drawn to a certain type of results. For example the Time Frame 5 min, grid 2-5 pips, Take profit 8-10 pips stop 500-900 pips (if possible adjust stop tighter or exit for loss manually in a case of fundamental change in base or quote ) I have learned trading live with EA that I would rather pick up a few pips a day and get out with only 10 open positions. I start worrying after 10 or more trades are opened in a trading day. I like to keep my draw down 10%. And it seems trading a 5 min chart is more manageable. SO basically what I learned is that every strategy out there must work for your own personality and if it can be tweaked and still be profitable, then I guess you can say you done your research !
P.S I really should be journaling this for my self....my bad !!
The image below is the 5 min chart mentioned above. I am trying to work out this rare occasion of this massive draw down.
1) implement EA to close all at equity set %
2) EA implement close all at a major support resistance if grid is at or above # of open posistions.
3) ? Any thoughts anyone ? maybe ATR or ADR ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Nov 2013 Draw down prob2018-01-28.png Size: 112 KB
  • #843
  • Edited 6:16am Jan 28, 2018 5:57am | Edited 6:16am
I also did a lot of backtests and to be honest on some occasions a large loss was just avoided by a few pips of price movement (when comparing backtest to those at Ryans myfxbook page), which looks like over-optimization to me. So I think one should be aware that even though this strategy might be profitable in the long-term, it is still risky and you should expect to get the maximum possible loss from time to time (hopefully only every few years).
  • #844
  • Edited 7:39am Jan 29, 2018 6:38am | Edited 7:39am
Quoting PippinUSA150
Hi Ryan, I have been doing a lot of optimization on gbpcad. I try to test the major draw down periods or years, for example on Nov, 2013. I then optimize other time periods that are choppy price action, and also optimize all history possible , for example 2007-present. I get so confused and dont know how to amend all these settings, inputs for the perfect EA. Any suggestions. I am very curious on how you eventually came up with your settings and in putss?. Was in from optimizations? Thanks ! I also notice that while doing these back tests my personality...
Sure. Every personality is different. I find that most traders cannot stomach my kind of trading because it's basically completely opposite of what they thought to be profitable trading. I was able to find some profitable settings on the GBPCAD 5 min time-frame. I don't think they were very long-term though. Maybe 1-3 years? I think my TP settings were set to just 5-10 pips a basket and my GBPCAD RMI was set to 35/65.

I've never typed out here or any where what settings I use with my EA currently. The reason for this is I want people to think and learn about my type of trading instead of just copying some settings. Understanding why something is profitable currently is key in continuing to make it profitable. I've mentioned my settings in a few of my videos. I can't remember which ones though.
  • #845
  • Edited 8:26am Jan 29, 2018 7:30am | Edited 8:26am
Quoting cornulala
I also did a lot of backtests and to be honest on some occasions a large loss was just avoided by a few pips of price movement (when comparing backtest to those at Ryans myfxbook page), which looks like over-optimization to me. So I think one should be aware that even though this strategy might be profitable in the long-term, it is still risky and you should expect to get the maximum possible loss from time to time (hopefully only every few years).
Nice argument here!

The fear of over optimization...This is basically when you force previous price to fit into pre-defined EA settings. In turn this means you can basically find the golden settings to make your strategy fit a cooky-cutter mold to previous price.

You could technically say this is what I've done with my system but here me out in my explanation as I think what I've done here is NOT a bad thing...

Forcing a strategy/EA to fit previous price is looked at by most as negative because this technically means the strategy/EA could fail at any given moment in the future. Even though I agree with this, I also think this is the BEST way to develop ANY trading strategy! Why?

I've pulled over 11 years of data on each of my trading pairs to...

1. See how my strategy has worked over years of time.
2. See if I can understand how and why my strategy fits and works price so well during these 11 years.
3. How many times in these 11 years was my strategy close to loss or blowing up?
4. When and where were these losses or close call losses?
5. How to appropriately modify my strategy to help it better avoid DD and potential loss like this IN THE FUTURE.
6. What adjustments can I make to compliment my trading pairs individually and together. This step did NOT include optimization.
7. The decision to add a 2nd EA to help my original EA better adapt to future price.
8. The hope of understanding each pair's behavior and personality over years of time. Exploring this helps me understand my EA's worst moments so I can better optimize it for potentially the worst of market conditions.
9. If I can optimize my EA to accommodate the worst possible moments during 11 years, maybe, just maybe, I can accommodate more moments like this in the future.
10. How important is "risk" in developing a strategy like this? How much of a factor do the worst moments in 11 years play on RISK?

The reality is...NO trader is completely protected no matter how great of a trader they are or strategy they have. We know the forex market is changing on a daily bases. It's a known fact that I'm prone to future price movement because it's the unknown but so is EVERY SINGE TRADER or institution. The question is...How much of an advantage do I really have optimizing my strategy/EA in this way? I think it's huge! Optimization needs to be looked at objectively and this I believe is my edge.
  • #846
  • Jan 29, 2018 9:10am Jan 29, 2018 9:10am
I agree with you that optimization is good and necessary because each pair has its own "personality", but one should bear in mind that the historic maximum DD will therefore have the lowest possible value and might not predict the future max DD correctly.
Therefore, best practice is to optimize as best as you can but then estimate your future max DD by variation of all important parameters of about 10%. This way you can estimate the impact of over-optimization and have a more realistic prediction of future performance.
  • #847
  • Jan 29, 2018 10:39am Jan 29, 2018 10:39am
New Video update!

This to me, is the most important forex video in this series since I started the thread.

I go over everything I did and why in developing my strategy.

Enjoy!

Inserted Video
  • #848
  • Jan 29, 2018 12:05pm Jan 29, 2018 12:05pm
Thanks for the update. One question if I may: Does your combined closing mechanism of multiple pairs apply to all open positions or only those in drawdown (with more than 1 positions)?
For example if you had:
5 positions GBPCAD in drawdown
1 position AUDCAD in profit 50 pips
would you close that AUDCAD due to the usual take profit or wait until all together are in profit?
  • #849
  • Jan 29, 2018 12:26pm Jan 29, 2018 12:26pm
Quoting cornulala
Thanks for the update. One question if I may: Does your combined closing mechanism of multiple pairs apply to all open positions or only those in drawdown (with more than 1 positions)? For example if you had: 5 positions GBPCAD in drawdown 1 position AUDCAD in profit 50 pips would you close that AUDCAD due to the usual take profit or wait until all together are in profit?
Yes, All together profit. This leaves me open to exposure on the pair that is in profit though. In my forward live testing since July, this has proven to be a worthy hedge function overall. It allows for the pairs rolling into profit faster to pull out the slower pair/pairs. In most cases, trades close out earlier than they would if they were trading the strategy on their own. My forward testing has shown the minimizing of larger baskets on all pairs because of hedging in this way.

Since the GBPCAD is traded on the m30, it receives a lot more signals which means more overall exposure. Because of this, I have this pair trading half the risk of the other 2. The cool new future I added 6 weeks ago is the GBPCAD can act independently and together with the other 2 pairs. This minimizes the potential exposure even further making for a well balanced system. In testing it gave me MUCH LESS risk but a bit less profit. A little less profit is a good trade off for more safety in my eyes.
  • #850
  • Jan 29, 2018 1:42pm Jan 29, 2018 1:42pm
[quote=Cubbybgood;. The cool new future I added 6 weeks ago is the GBPCAD can act independently and together with the other 2 pairs. This minimizes the potential exposure even further making for a well balanced system. In testing it gave me MUCH LESS risk but a bit less profit. A little less profit is a good trade off for more safety in my eyes.[/quote]

What does this cool new feutre do to help balance all open pairs, ? I understand the close all pairs at certain profit, but is there something else that im missing.
When I do my optimization I get crazy settings for RMI like : 26 mom 0 , bar shift 100 etc... I am sure you have came across same scenrios with all testing, but how did you end up with RMI 14,5 : Stop 500, Basket 50 TF 30 GBP/CAD. Did you just rounded off to whole numbers then tested again and again, Or did the Optimization or back test spit out your set settings that you use ?
Thanks for feedback
  • #851
  • Jan 29, 2018 2:28pm Jan 29, 2018 2:28pm
Quoting PippinUSA150
{quote} What does this cool new feutre do to help balance all open pairs, ? I understand the close all pairs at certain profit, but is there something else that im missing. When I do my optimization I get crazy settings for RMI like : 26 mom 0 , bar shift 100 etc... I am sure you have came across same scenrios with all testing, but how did you end up with RMI 14,5 : Stop 500, Basket 50 TF 30 GBP/CAD. Did you just rounded off to whole numbers then tested again and again, Or did the Optimization or back test spit out your set settings that you use...
Not sure where you heard RMI 14 and 5. Those are not the settings I use. The standard settings are 70/30 for over bought and oversold. I'm sorry...I made a promise to myself to not post the settings I use in writing here. They are much closer to the standard 70/30 though.
  • #852
  • Jan 29, 2018 4:52pm Jan 29, 2018 4:52pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
{quote} Not sure where you heard RMI 14 and 5. Those are not the settings I use. The standard settings are 70/30 for over bought and oversold. I'm sorry...I made a promise to myself to not post the settings I use in writing here. They are much closer to the standard 70/30 though.
I should have been more descriptive: RMI Period 14 and Mom 5. I also have a bar shift at 1. Instead of using Optimization today I am just plugging away different settings and then back testing them. The Optimization takes very long time and gives out crazy numbers, and its hard for me to use .
  • #853
  • Feb 18, 2018 5:37pm Feb 18, 2018 5:37pm
Hi Ryan I noticed that you are not utilizing the EUR/GBP anymore any reasons or update on this ?
Thanks
  • #854
  • Feb 23, 2018 10:11am Feb 23, 2018 10:11am
Hi Ryan !
What is your opinion regarding trading your strategy on a 4h chart ?
How would you define the grid distance and the profit target ?
I'm experimenting with a 50 pip grid and 100 pips profit at the moment.
  • #855
  • Feb 23, 2018 8:44pm Feb 23, 2018 8:44pm
Quoting PippinUSA150
Hi Ryan I noticed that you are not utilizing the EUR/GBP anymore any reasons or update on this ? Thanks
I put the eurgbp aside because other pairs were showing less drawdown. I would take less drawdown over less profit any day. I also thought the audcad and nzdcad better complimented the gbpcad
  • #856
  • Feb 23, 2018 8:46pm Feb 23, 2018 8:46pm
Quoting behof
Hi Ryan ! What is your opinion regarding trading your strategy on a 4h chart ? How would you define the grid distance and the profit target ? I'm experimenting with a 50 pip grid and 100 pips profit at the moment.
I haven’t done a lot of 4 hour trading with my strategy. I believe it’s successful but it shows much less profit because of the lack of signals on a higher timeframe.
  • #857
  • Feb 23, 2018 11:46pm Feb 23, 2018 11:46pm
Seen how just within a week free for all trade copier idea evolved...
So, is the membership way the final, and going all commercial?
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #858
  • Feb 24, 2018 7:36am Feb 24, 2018 7:36am
Quoting profitfarmer
Seen how just within a week free for all trade copier idea evolved... So, is the membership way the final, and going all commercial?
Well, I will contenue copying to my original 57 for free indefinitely.

Price moving forward is never set indefinitely.

I’ll be very scarce on my plans here on FF as I want to keep my standard status.

i know my recent changes may be disappointing to many, but we all need to make a living somehow when we’re growing our “smaller” accounts...
  • #859
  • Feb 24, 2018 7:39am Feb 24, 2018 7:39am
Quoting Cubbybgood
{quote} Well, I will contenue copying to my original 57 for free indefinitely. Price moving forward is never set indefinitely. I’ll be very scarce on my plans here on FF as I want to keep my standard status. i know my recent changes may be disappointing to many, but we all need to make a living somehow when we’re growing our “smaller” accounts...
makes sense not to post the latest videos here.

it is not disappointing for me per se. one needs to make a living, sure.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #860
  • Mar 13, 2018 3:12pm Mar 13, 2018 3:12pm
Nice thread.
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