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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #2,141
  • Jan 28, 2018 5:45am Jan 28, 2018 5:45am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} In ALL candles the open is ALWAYS formed before the close. This is something that is necessary to understand.
I presumed that the reader of my post is so intelligent to know it
  • #2,142
  • Jan 28, 2018 5:58am Jan 28, 2018 5:58am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} I presumed that the reader of my post is so intelligent to know it
Knowing and embracing are two different things. When I was a kid my mother always told me that if I didn't take care of my teeth I would have problems later on. I would tell her "I KNOW!". Many people "know" but fail to understand that what they're really telling themselves is "it's oK NOW...". Needless to say that knowledge did little to spare me much misery down the road.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,143
  • Jan 28, 2018 6:03am Jan 28, 2018 6:03am
Do what ROGER does.
  • #2,144
  • Jan 28, 2018 6:09am Jan 28, 2018 6:09am
Quoting jdieieh
Do what ROGER does.
Terrible advice. Roger Linus spent too much time dreaming about shortcuts to a better life. Do what Roger didn't do. Get to work man.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Roger.jpg Size: 59 KB
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,145
  • Jan 28, 2018 6:12am Jan 28, 2018 6:12am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Terrible advice. Roger Linus spent too much time dreaming about shortcuts to a better life. Do what Roger didn't do. Get to work man. {image}
No no ... THE ROGER

https://cdn-s3.si.com/images/federer...-kiss-lead.jpg
  • #2,146
  • Jan 28, 2018 6:25am Jan 28, 2018 6:25am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Knowing and embracing are two different things. When I was a kid my mother always told me that if I didn't take care of my teeth I would have problems later on. I would tell her "I KNOW!". Many people "know" but fail to understand that what they're really telling themselves is "it's oK NOW...". Needless to say that knowledge did little to spare me much misery down the road.
Should the open really only be the only reference point (only buy if prize is above open and only sell if prize is below open)? How do you deal with these situations where prize forms a graveyard of dragonfly doji?

If you agree that time has no effect on prize (i.e. higher TFs can have varying periods) then these dragonfly and gravestone dojis appear everywhere.
Attached Image
  • #2,147
  • Edited 7:25am Jan 28, 2018 6:48am | Edited 7:25am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Should the open really only be the only reference point (only buy if prize is above open and only sell if prize is below open)? How do you deal with these situations where prize forms a graveyard of dragonfly doji? If you agree that time has no effect on prize (i.e. higher TFs can have varying periods) then these dragonfly and gravestone dojis appear everywhere. {image}
I never said time has no effect on price. Time is everything.

Only buy if price is above open and only sell if price is below open... Which open? The one before or after the doji? Why not the closes?

I see hundreds of doji's in that chart. I also see one. What is it, 5m? It looks like a 5m chart. But then again... Time is different with GU.

To be honest... That chart doesn't show enough doji's. Either make the chart bigger or the timeframe smaller so I can pick one. You're asking me to do the exact opposite of what you're supposed to be doing; finding a needle in a haystack.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,148
  • Jan 28, 2018 7:07am Jan 28, 2018 7:07am
I tested on tick data all imaginable situations what candle can do on it's lifetime. When you look at wick and range stats it looks that there is an edge in it, but I can't find any. I do linear stats, and in linear analysis there is no edge.
I tried:
* when candle did the wick < x pips and retest open, open trade in candle body's direction;
* when candle did the wick < x pips and did body > y pips, open trade in candle body's direction;
* when candle did the wick < x pips and did body > y pips, wait for retrace z pips, open trade in candle body's direction;
Tried a lot of similar and logical things, but didn't get any edge from this.
While candle doesn't close, you don't know her real direction. And if you knew that direction will be UP, you don't know which wick will be true wick(it can go up/down above below open a lot of times)(Of course, in this situation if you knew candle's direction, you would be profitable, and you don't need to know true lower candle's wick ).
And if you try to follow candle's direction, spread comes incredibly expensive.
  • #2,149
  • Jan 28, 2018 7:14am Jan 28, 2018 7:14am
Quoting IenDzi
I tested on tick data all imaginable situations what candle can do on it's lifetime. When you look at wick and range stats it looks that there is an edge in it, but I can't find any. I do linear stats, and in linear analysis there is no edge. I tried: * when candle did the wick < x pips and retest open, open trade in candle body's direction; * when candle did the wick < x pips and did body > y pips, open trade in candle body's direction; * when candle did the wick < x pips and did body > y pips, wait for retrace z pips, open trade in candle body's...
Tick data and wicks are not trustworthy data lol. Tíck data is different for every broker. Stop wasting your time with tick data, It May even vary between DEMO and LIVE server.
Grind until you no longer have to introduce yourself. 4:30am club
  • #2,150
  • Jan 28, 2018 7:19am Jan 28, 2018 7:19am
Quoting Fxmd
{quote} Tick data and wicks are not trustworthy data lol. Tíck data is different for every broker. Stop wasting your time with tick data, It May even vary between DEMO and LIVE server.
So with what data I should do my testing?
  • #2,151
  • Jan 28, 2018 7:23am Jan 28, 2018 7:23am
Quoting Fxmd
{quote} Tick data and wicks are not trustworthy data lol. Tíck data is different for every broker. Stop wasting your time with tick data, It May even vary between DEMO and LIVE server.
Exactly, tick is different and so are open, high, low, and close, too. On what do you base your research/trading tools?
  • #2,152
  • Edited 8:06am Jan 28, 2018 7:35am | Edited 8:06am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Exactly, tick is different and so are open, high, low, and close, too. On what do you base your research/trading tools?
CP already explained this. How are you going to find a needle in a haystack(IE: anomalies) without enough hay?

You break it up so that you're looking for the tiniest needles you can find in the biggest haystack you can create.

And ignore FXMD. What he just said was beyond asinine. Without ticks there is no data or price or market. Just wishful thinking.

It's also why it takes most traders years to start profiting(if they ever do). They think they only need to look at a few bars and they'll discover a giant edge when the only edge that's hidden in a few bars are microscopic and can only be found by breaking them up. As I said; get to work.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,153
  • Jan 28, 2018 7:41am Jan 28, 2018 7:41am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} I never said time has no effect on price. Time is everything.
I think that should be a constant between price and time. You couldn't predict the direction. But you could see where the price should be when time goes.
Am I correct or am I far away?
  • #2,154
  • Edited 7:56am Jan 28, 2018 7:44am | Edited 7:56am
Noise has to be ignored or one will go crazy chasing their tails throughout their lives!

Noise is on every candle on every timeframe including ticks.

Noise is random

Noise is a "variable". A variable is something that changes it's value all the time infinitely with no end in sight.

Profit is made by trapping movement from point A to point B from a point of reference. Point of reference has to be a CONSTANT in order to measure the distance from point A to point B in a CONSISTENT manner throughout the life cycle of the trade....throughout the life cycle of your strategy...throughout the life cycle of your trading plan.

Noise is in the Wicks because wicks have no bounds. Wicks are manipulation zones. HH, HL, LH, LL are all "variables" which are prone to decay the consistency element of any strategy.

VeeFX Solution to achieve Consistency:

Ignore Open, High, Low of all candles including 1 second charts. Only Closing Price matters.

A line chart on Close or a EMA(1) on all time frames is as good as any tick chart.

Using only the Closing Price, which is also a "variable" moving from point A to point B, a universal strategy can be developed that will work on all time frames, all charts, all market conditions

It does NOT matter if you measure point A to point B from your reference point via HTF>LTF or LTF > HTF because it is all relative and not measured in absolute terms.

Further consistency can be achieved by never going against the direction of H1 candle for reasons CP has explained beautifully via the 30, 90 min MAE. I don't use any indicator. Just series of Closing Price is sufficient.

I do not look past the previous candle closing price. Maintaining RECENCY is very important.

I do not bother with what the current candle is doing as Closing price remains a variable until it closes.

Just using Closing price, a trending market condition can be easily determined without charts. I assume Markets are trending 100% of the time in a quantified manner as long as A-B is greater than Ask-Bid in order to achieve positive result.

Using only the closing price of a previously CLOSED candle and ignoring the current candle, I derive four universal conditions within a UP or Down trend...
- Trend Reversal,
- Trend Continuation of a Reversal (confirmation)
- Continuation of a Trend
- Confirmation of a continuation of a Trend

Keeping in mind that a trend is a trend as long as A-B is greater that Spread, we are always in a trend most of the time. Keeping this philosophy, trend is determined at the close of every candle across all timeframes or combinations of it....to determine the overall Trend of the instrument in a consistent manner. When you follow this structured approach to a market that moves tick by tick ALL the time, YOU become the CONSTANT, your strategy becomes a CONSTANT, your trend definition becomes the CONSTANT, it eliminates the worry of whether trend is beginning or ending or whether you are in a range or consolidation or exhaustion or whatever. The consistent approach AUTOMATICALLY navigate thru the maze of variability and avoid the pitfalls of being at the wrong place at the wrong time, entering at the precise (or close to precision as one can get) confluence of market cycles of the chosen timeframe combinations.

Market will oscilate and vascilate 100% of the time even on tick charts till the end of time. Trends, ranges, patterns, SR lines, etc are only created in our minds to determine whether to trade a bouce or a break based on your chosen direction. We have no control over order flow, we have no visibility over order flow, price will always go wherever it wants to go. It's like a train with no platforms to stop and pick up passengers. Either you run as fast as you can to get on the train or wait for strategic locations where the train will slow down.

Anyways, I have said enough on how to box the entire market into one unversal strategy that will work consistenty till the end of time but please don't listen to me. Continue your search for the holy Grail indicator to figure out what CP does.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,155
  • Jan 28, 2018 7:44am Jan 28, 2018 7:44am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Exactly, tick is different and so are open, high, low, and close, too. On what do you base your research/trading tools?
Consecutive highs and lows after the open.
Grind until you no longer have to introduce yourself. 4:30am club
  • #2,156
  • Jan 28, 2018 7:52am Jan 28, 2018 7:52am
Quoting VEEFX
Noise has to be ignored or one will go crazy chasing their tails throughout their lives! Noise is on every candle on every timeframe including ticks. Noise is random Noise is a "variable". A variable is something that changes it's value all the time infinitely with no end in sight. Profit is made by trapping movement from point A to point B from a point of reference. Point of reference has to be a CONSTANT in order to measure the distance from point A to point B in a CONSISTENT manner throughout the life cycle of the trade....throughout the life...
Very good explanation. However you have to take into consideration that previous candlestick close is current candlestick open. At least it should be for a liquid instrument. All in all this doesn’t have a negative impact in what you said, perfectly well explained. I’m sure however people here will not understand. Amateurs as CP said
Grind until you no longer have to introduce yourself. 4:30am club
  • #2,157
  • Jan 28, 2018 7:59am Jan 28, 2018 7:59am
Quoting Fxmd
{quote} Very good explanation. However you have to take into consideration that previous candlestick close is current candlestick open. At least it should be for a liquid instrument. All in all this doesn’t have a negative impact in what you said, perfectly well explained. I’m sure however people here will not understand. Amateurs as CP said
Thanks and yes. Previous close is same as current open on a chart but not always. Markets gaps on weekends, at daily close, holidays etc. It will affect consistency.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,158
  • Jan 28, 2018 8:05am Jan 28, 2018 8:05am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} CP already explained this. How are you going to find a needle in a haystack(IE: anomalies) without enough hay? You break it up so that you're looking for the tiniest needles you can find in the biggest haystack you can create. And ignore FXMD. What he just said was beyond asinine. Without ticks there is no data or price or market. Just wishful thinking.
The amount of “sapiens” who do not know how to properly read is incredible, take a look around and it will not be hard to find those fools
Grind until you no longer have to introduce yourself. 4:30am club
  • #2,159
  • Jan 28, 2018 8:41am Jan 28, 2018 8:41am
Quoting VEEFX
Noise has to be ignored or one will go crazy chasing their tails throughout their lives! Noise is on every candle on every timeframe including ticks. Noise is random Noise is a "variable". A variable is something that changes it's value all the time infinitely with no end in sight. Profit is made by trapping movement from point A to point B from a point of reference. Point of reference has to be a CONSTANT in order to measure the distance from point A to point B in a CONSISTENT manner throughout the life cycle of the trade....throughout the life...
Aren't line charts of closes awesome?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #2,160
  • Jan 28, 2018 9:55am Jan 28, 2018 9:55am
Quoting Fxmd
{quote} Tick data and wicks are not trustworthy data lol. Tíck data is different for every broker. Stop wasting your time with tick data, It May even vary between DEMO and LIVE server.

Its funny that most everyone ignored your post 2,124 and 2,125

regards
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
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