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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #2,121
  • Jan 27, 2018 12:30pm Jan 27, 2018 12:30pm
Quoting HumbleLearne
Dear Crucialpoint , I am one of your greatest Fan's i live in MUMBAI the financial capital of india ( you see you have fans in every part of the world ) i learned alot from you post in fact spent days reading and collecting your post i have also printed all your post and go through it lots of times . i really like your analysis about psyclogical part for trading & other philosophical parts . I HAVE ALMOST COLLECTED & APPLIED ALL THE INDICATORS WHICH YOU...
Good luck; VEEX and others tried many tricks; and CP caught them by the bunch.

I think CP will be so disgusted that he will reveal his system for all of us
  • #2,122
  • Jan 27, 2018 12:31pm Jan 27, 2018 12:31pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} My TE made public for few hours trading GU last week (juggling only one knife with 10 legs :-)
CP followers; we got a new target
  • #2,123
  • Jan 27, 2018 1:15pm Jan 27, 2018 1:15pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} CP followers; we got a new target
I am not a CP follower nor do I trade CP style
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,124
  • Jan 27, 2018 1:15pm Jan 27, 2018 1:15pm
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Grind until you no longer have to introduce yourself. 4:30am club
  • #2,125
  • Jan 27, 2018 1:36pm Jan 27, 2018 1:36pm
Quoting Fxmd
{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}
Useful things to use along.

  1. ADR
  2. Chart patterns
  3. Trend Lines
  4. Break out boxes (last kiss)
  5. Knowing hours when market has more liquidity
  6. Channels

Non useful things

  1. No money management
  2. Trying to catch the whole move
  3. Not accepting loses
  4. Not accepting you dont have to trade each and every single setup/day
  5. Trying to force trades

Recommended forex book. Naked Forex

Grind until you no longer have to introduce yourself. 4:30am club
  • #2,126
  • Jan 27, 2018 3:10pm Jan 27, 2018 3:10pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I am not a CP follower nor do I trade CP style
You look like CP to me! He would always leave and come back too! I thought you were done with our shenanigans here at FF?

I'm glad to see your return however temporary it may be.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,127
  • Jan 27, 2018 3:24pm Jan 27, 2018 3:24pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} You look like CP to me! He would always leave and come back too! I thought you were done with our shenanigans here at FF? I'm glad to see your return however temporary it may be.
End of this month..
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,128
  • Jan 27, 2018 3:27pm Jan 27, 2018 3:27pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} End of this month..
Why do you delete your posts within 24 hours ? Some may see this as unusual behaviour ..
  • #2,129
  • Jan 27, 2018 3:53pm Jan 27, 2018 3:53pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
{quote} Why do you delete your posts within 24 hours ? Some may see this as unusual behaviour ..
Feel free to report my “unusual activity” to the moderators. It would most certainly work to my advantage.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,130
  • Jan 27, 2018 3:56pm Jan 27, 2018 3:56pm
We will send Michael Wolff to creep on VEEFX and report back
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  • #2,131
  • Jan 27, 2018 4:09pm Jan 27, 2018 4:09pm
Quoting alphadude
We will send Michael Wolff to creep on VEEFX and report back {image}
Exactly, the point of making my TE public (which I have never ever done before since 2006) is for those who are still trying to figure out. If they tried the influx or MAE or whatever the fuck they think CP does during awesome GU moved last week, it should be an eye opener that tick charts or indicators are just not necessary to make a profit. Keep on subscribing and listening to fools who will ALWAYS mislead and point you in the WRONG direction. As I have said before, there are very few (a handful) of forum members who really know their sh*t... rest are all blind leading the blind, it literally just takes common sense to block others off Your and think for yourself just once.

The only thing I agree about CP is his ability to make us think. Everything else is just FLUFF. There is no magic formula or indicator. Focus on his theory of dimensions which is also not rocket science. Focus on the market structure that is happening all day every day across all instruments and across all timeframes FOR MARKETSCTO EXIST. Without these, there is nothing left to trade. There is no edge in the market or in a candlestick. To me, I focus on what HAS TO HAPPEN.

My TE reflects that...all day every day. So no ask those you are experts in influx a
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,132
  • Edited 6:17pm Jan 27, 2018 4:09pm | Edited 6:17pm
To be continued....

My TE reflects that...all day every day. So I ask those you are experts in influx who traded this past week to put your forensics hat on and tell me how close I came to your dentifying influx points during London and US sessions. Whenever I could monitor my trades (it was less than a cummulative of several hours for the entire week), I noticed most of them going into profit pretty quickly...not because of some secret formula or indicator. If you think it is, it is the biggest fallacy to overcome imo) Damage is already done and it will take years to reverse from that mindset. Markets oscolate and vascilate and it will always go whenever they want to go, and change whenever so yes! It is based on time series (based on some PMs I received). It is not based on ticks and so does CP does NOT based everything on ticks. Profitwble Trading on one chart and on one timeframe is not possible. I am of the same opinion for tick charts as well with the difference being, I have not researched tick chart.

I have posted by "Market is Neutral and Universal" strategy in bits and pieces many times. It is based on common sense. It is based on what you see in less than 10seconds on a single timeframe chart dangling like a joker enticing traders and ruling out at the same time. There is no edge that exists on a chart. There is no edge that exists on a candle stick in a literal sense. The EDGE is something a trader looks, feels, imagines, visualizes, strategizes, analizes, trades, analyzes, trades, redevelops, retests, a 100 or 1000 times thru the journey until you get to where CP is......building an edge by eliminating the unknowns and build an asset repository of your own belief system. There is simply no other way!

Hence my TE going public and it is time to bring it down. There is no 3 or 6 dimensions. You can have as many as you like based on your own ability of price interpretation capabilities. I use automation via brute Force to analyze these so called dimensions or market cycles (I have no idea of Gann or Elliot or whoever these gurus are....I just do not believe in their work), and simply use confluence to pinpoint such influx points. I use over 30+ dimensions/cycles so do the math what is involved here. Either you can choose to spend the next 10 yrs on CP or develop your own interpretation and move forward.

How many fools can stare at tick charts for 9hours a day, 5 days a week to make a million or two in return?

How
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,133
  • Jan 27, 2018 4:18pm Jan 27, 2018 4:18pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Exactly, the point of making my TE public (which I have never ever done before since 2006) is for those who are still trying to figure out. If they tried the influx or MAE or whatever the fuck they think CP does during awesome GU moved last week, it should be an eye opener that tick charts or indicators are just not necessary to make a profit. Keep on subscribing and listening to fools who will ALWAYS mislead and point you in the WRONG direction. As I have said before, there are very few (a handful) of forum members who really know their...
easy man; we are just having lols only; nothing serious.

I do agree with all your points above. like Dennis Richard mentioned; you can give somebody a profitable system; and very likely he won't get on with it.

you have to discover your own way of trading.
  • #2,134
  • Jan 27, 2018 4:38pm Jan 27, 2018 4:38pm
Demo trade explorers are worthless.. Demo is pretty much useless, the strategy may be invalid soon so better get £ while it's there.. Backtest available on live accounts.. The feeling of live is different to the feeling of demo.. Sink some £100 into a micro account.. at ~£.07 a pip if you cannot make that work then don't bother losing more than £100 (1428 pips if no commission) every quarter then if you can find the edge you'll be ready mentally, maybe.. Demo prepares you for nothing.... And no one will invest in you if you can't make real money, if that's the path you want.. Start small build up stay comfortable-ish.. Seasons greetings
  • #2,135
  • Jan 27, 2018 5:53pm Jan 27, 2018 5:53pm
Quoting DeltaSeed
Demo trade explorers are worthless.. Demo is pretty much useless, the strategy may be invalid soon so better get £ while it's there.. Backtest available on live accounts.. The feeling of live is different to the feeling of demo.. Sink some £100 into a micro account.. at ~£.07 a pip if you cannot make that work then don't bother losing more than £100 (1428 pips if no commission) every quarter then if you can find the edge you'll be ready mentally, maybe.. Demo prepares you for nothing.... And no one will invest in you if you can't make real money,...
It's a demo because he doesn't want to make it public how much he's making in his live account. Hence the name 'mimic'. To say a demo explorer is worthless is irrational; the only difference is in slippage if a trader believes they'll get their orders filled at the same price on a live account(they won't) and psychology if they believe having real money on the line won't fuck with their head at first. Other than that the trades are equally as valid.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,136
  • Edited 8:23pm Jan 27, 2018 7:50pm | Edited 8:23pm
Quoting Fxmd
{quote} Useful things to use along. ADR Chart patterns Trend Lines Break out boxes (last kiss) Knowing hours when market has more liquidity Channels Non useful things No money management Trying to catch the whole move Not accepting loses Not accepting you dont have to trade each and every single setup/day Trying to force trades Recommended forex book. Naked Forex
Thank for efforts & thank you for sharing your system How is Malaysia
  • #2,137
  • Jan 27, 2018 8:34pm Jan 27, 2018 8:34pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Me; and two things you need to learn are: 1. It isn't CP's system(The Force doesn't belong to you) 2. No one will show you a chart because that would do very very little to help you understand. So, basically, not exactly impossible but highly improbable. Good luck in your search. I hope you find what you're looking for.

Me; and two things you need to learn are:

1. It isn't CP's system(The Force doesn't belong to you)

Your are right i already know that but if it wasn't for him i would have never known the system . But to be honest he has really put in lots of hard work in combining different sysems and taken great hardship in learning different aspects of psycological trading aspect . ( MAY BE IN INDIRECT WAY HE HAS ALTEAST TRIED TO HELP PEOPLE AND HIS MOTIVE AND OBJECTIVE WAS NEVER TO GAIN SOMETHING FROM PEOPLE BUT TO GIVE SOMETHING TO PEOPLE I AM HAPPY...

You are right again i agree but there are thousands of good hearted & kind people on FF who are trying there best to help " HUMAN BEINGS " to code indicators for free , explaining stuff for free in the best possible way for free , cooporate & coordinate in the best possible way just replicating life virtually on a specified subject via FF ..

WHEN I SAY I AND CRUCIAL POINT HAVE SIMILAR MIND SET ...REQUEST YOU TO PLEASE TRUST ME ... I WAS ALREADY 90 % DONE WITH MY OWN TRADING SYSTEM ..CERTAIN POST FROM CRUCIAL POINTS POSTS CLEARED MY DOUBTS ..for example ...

1) Going from lower TF to Higher TF not the other way round
2) Issues regarding life & investmenst and peoples assumsions on it
3) congestive analysis etc ( I am more into mentalism and hypnosis ) inorder to understand how mind works etc
4) He used his own problem solving methodology to resolve the issue connect dots i am using mine me being six sigma Green belt help me to get down to the issue more effectively and efficiently etc

May Almighty bless you all ..Ameen
  • #2,138
  • Edited Jan 28, 2018 3:07am Jan 27, 2018 9:24pm | Edited Jan 28, 2018 3:07am
Quoting HumbleLearne
{quote} Me; and two things you need to learn are: 1. It isn't CP's system(The Force doesn't belong to you) Your are right i already know that but if it wasn't for him i would have never known the system . But to be honest he has really put in lots of hard work in combining different sysems and taken great hardship in learning different aspects of psycological trading aspect . ( MAY BE IN INDIRECT WAY HE HAS ALTEAST TRIED TO HELP PEOPLE AND HIS MOTIVE AND OBJECTIVE WAS NEVER TO GAIN SOMETHING FROM PEOPLE BUT TO GIVE SOMETHING TO PEOPLE I AM HAPPY......
Ah, yes, Six Sigma. I do indeed remember when I thought Six Sigma was going to be the key to finding the solution. That was just before I started trading. Better to know it than not but... Nay, not the key.

In retrospect I probably should have gone from Higher TF to Lower TF.

Those first few months of watching pips tick for 20 hours a day were grueling. Bad place to start; you're just floating in the middle of nowhere. But, alas, I suppose we all find our place in the market eventually.

Quoting VEEFX
To be continued.... My TE reflects that...all day every day. So I ask those you are experts in influx who traded this past week to put your forensics hat on and tell me how close I came to your dentifying influx points during London and US sessions. Whenever I could monitor my trades (it was less than a cummulative of several hours for the entire week), I noticed most of them going into profit pretty quickly...not because of some secret formula or indicator. If you think it is, it is the biggest fallacy to overcome imo) Damage is already done and...
I'm sorry VEEFX but this is where we depart ways. All of the data you use becomes a part of every tick and they into the next. The ticks are the epitome of precision and if you know how they're interacting from ticks up to monthly charts then you can find discrepancies among them. But to do so you also have to understand them from the monthly charts down to the ticks. I am in no way disagreeing with your methods; simply pointing out that the ticks are already a part of everything you do. Where as you try to avoid the noise I listen very intently to it's hum... with full understanding that most of the market considers it foolish and would be easily distracted by it.

No doubt; I choose what to listen to and when. But it's the ability to listen to the noise without being distracted that tells you what to do. That's the higher edge within a single candlestick. They get their information from the ticks and the ticks get their information from the candlesticks.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,139
  • Edited 3:48am Jan 28, 2018 3:27am | Edited 3:48am
This thread became a crapper. However, it started imho with a serious concept developed by Neio (go and read the first pages). I don't know if he'll read this, but I hope he will and bring the focus away from how CP trades back to the idea Neio brought up.

Quoting Neio
If anyone wants to use this thread to share stats they have on candlesticks for various pairs. Please feel free. My focus is still GU.
I proved CP's statement (95 % or the time prize will either close above of below the open) first using R and GU H1 candles, too. How many of the observed 50,000 bars close at it's open? It's far less than 5 % - actually only 0.562 % of all candles close at the open.

Furthermore I was interested in the allowed deviation between open and close so that CP's statement holds true. Only in 5 % of the candles the difference between open and close is 0.00006.

However, prize ranges usually much more during the lifetime of a GU H1 candlestick. The distribution of the candlestick ranges is shown in the upper half of the image below.

Now comes the tricky part ... Neio suggested to find answers to questions like

  1. What can historical OHLC data tell us about the probabilities within an individual candlestick?
  2. Where can I make high probability entries? When do I need to get out?
  3. How big should my Stop Loss be?
  4. Logically, you would be buying in the lower part of that candle. But where?
    Below open? Above open? At Open? A deviation from open?
  5. etc. (again, go to page 1 of this thread and read the next 10, 20, or 30 pages to get a glimpse of the idea)

While reading it the first time I thought I have to go to the tick or at least M1 chart within a H1 candle and perform some retracement statistics to see the probability for a retracement of x pips to continue or reverse, etc. But then I had imho a better idea. Candlesticks are just arbitrary snap shots of the tick chart. How can I see retracement distributions in the H1 chart? It is possible by understanding that in up candles the low is usually formed before the high ...

One way to do it is looking at the wicks opposite the closing direction of a candlestick. If it closes above the open I can look for the lower wick and vice versa. Now look at the histogram (lower part of the attached image) and compare it to the upper part. You can see that the retraces to the open are quite small in comparison to the expected "average" candlestick range. Thus, it should be possible to derive some thresholds easily to see if prize is likely to continue or retrace in conjunction of the range and wick distributions ... Any thoughts?

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  • #2,140
  • Jan 28, 2018 3:34am Jan 28, 2018 3:34am
Quoting AntiCre
It is possible by understanding that in up candles the low is usually formed before the high.
In ALL candles the open is ALWAYS formed before the close. This is something that is necessary to understand.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
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