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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #35,941
  • Jan 25, 2018 10:23am Jan 25, 2018 10:23am
Quoting PeterT
GBPJPY long 233tick Expectation NSH Heavy selling from the 156 level and price corrected very deep to 88.6% fib. Rotation to the upside at 1:1 completion, with structure to the left. SOS2-SOS3 signal I hope the bears don't keep coming.. {image}
Bulls ripped to pieces by bear attack.
Fast loss short pain.
-33 pips or -25 euro

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  • #35,942
  • Jan 25, 2018 10:29am Jan 25, 2018 10:29am
Quoting PeterT
{quote} Bulls ripped to pieces by bear attack. Fast loss short pain. -33 pips or -25 euro {image}
Playing with "The Beast".
Wow! I've got some experience to gain.
  • #35,943
  • Jan 25, 2018 10:30am Jan 25, 2018 10:30am
Quoting AzizLight
{quote} Thanks, Nikster. Still learning and refining entries and entry candles. I appreciate your thoughts as they will make me take a closer look and maybe discover some risk there that I didn't see. What I was thinking here is that it was a 100% retracement as the candle didn't close above the tail of the previous high so I felt like I was jumping in with a good risk reward as close above it would mean an expectation failure and move to the upside.
You trade the 233tick and I trade the 144tick so on my chart I had a close above and a (very weak) NSH. I think that when I traded the 233tick, I also would jumped in because of the amazing risk/reward. Another thing I find very important is the depht compared to the projection. If the projection is big then I don't expect a deep correction and when that does happen I will wait to see how things work out since the expectation is getting weaker if there is no pattern completion or any other reason I detect
  • #35,944
  • Jan 25, 2018 10:31am Jan 25, 2018 10:31am
Quoting Nikster
Done for today. 1 trade 30 points{image}
Do you have a target for the day and quit? I may need to adopt something like that in my plan, was up +29, now up +4.
Wow! I've got some experience to gain.
  • #35,945
  • Jan 25, 2018 10:35am Jan 25, 2018 10:35am
Booooo....Stopped out at -33.

+24 for today

I'm done for the week. Gotta go help the folks with doctor appointments tomorrow.

Second week ever trading = 100 pts net after commissions, etc.

Lots of mistakes. Lots to learn. Onward and upward!

Have a great weekend everybody!
  • #35,946
  • Edited 10:50am Jan 25, 2018 10:38am | Edited 10:50am
YM - I'm long at 26331, locked in 66, currently up 77. Ultra aggressive today after a good day yesterday.

OUT at 26398 + 67

Looking to get back Long with tight stop.
  • #35,947
  • Jan 25, 2018 10:38am Jan 25, 2018 10:38am
Quoting Lawnman
{quote} Do you have a target for the day and quit? I may need to adopt something like that in my plan, was up +29, now up +4.
I do not. I trade from 8:30 to 11:00 AM in my time zone, central US time.

I generally will be less likely to take trades if I'm up for the day unless they are compelling. Likely affecting expectancy because if you think about it, I'm limiting my possible wins.

I backed off today after a couple put me up +39. I missed 2 other opportunities that were decent, but i also work a full time job so I can't stare at my screen for 2.5 hours straight.

It should be simply follow the plan, but other interruptions/obligations can alter the expectancy.
  • #35,948
  • Jan 25, 2018 10:47am Jan 25, 2018 10:47am
I would like to note I finally got my futures account to positive points. Started last September so almost 5 months in. September was a loser, October ended at 0 points exactly, November was a loser, December was positive, and January is even better then December.

My demo activity from July and August 2017 was positive and not all surprised to stumble in live trading. November, however was a turning point. I went downhill quickly with mistake after mistake. It was like nothing I chose was right. It was as if I lost what I had learned so far and was back at square one. I was effectively trying to make this too easy. At this point I backed off and started over on Damian's videos. It was evident I was off track. I began playback trading aggressively as well. I started to put more pieces together and my playback trading has been phenomenal since.

I really didn't trade much live for about 3 weeks during end of December and beginning of January.

Everyday is a constant emotional struggle of fear and impatience, but I'm pushing forward. Internal challenge accepted.
  • #35,949
  • Jan 25, 2018 10:51am Jan 25, 2018 10:51am
Quoting AzizLight
Hi Folks, I have a basic question about margin that I wanted to clarify with you folks. If I want to trade before the market opens (before 9:30AM EST) my trading would still fall under the intraday margin rules with my broker, correct? So, the only time that maintenance margin would come into play is if I chose to stay in a position past the 4-4:30PM trading halt at the exchange. After 6PM the market opens back up and the intraday margin requirements resume, correct? I find myself in front of a computer every morning well before 9:30AM and have...
That is correct as long as you don't hold into the close you don't have to worry about the margin situation. Pre market is good to go
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #35,950
  • Jan 25, 2018 11:05am Jan 25, 2018 11:05am
USDJPY
-8, +30 = +22 Today
  • #35,951
  • Edited 11:24am Jan 25, 2018 11:06am | Edited 11:24am
YM - long at 26398
Locked in +17, up +34
OUT at +17
  • #35,952
  • Jan 25, 2018 11:09am Jan 25, 2018 11:09am
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} I'll say the biggest value I've found in keeping detailed statistics are: 1. Comparing my performance for various trading systems 2. Reaffirming my confidence in a profitable system (like this one), when I have a few losing days. If you have a large enough sample size, that statistically speaking tells you that your system has positive expectancy, you can have the confidence to go through a few losing days knowing, not guessing, but knowing that you will continue to make money on the other side of that drawdown. I think that most of the...
You made a very good point. Thank you!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #35,953
  • Jan 25, 2018 11:36am Jan 25, 2018 11:36am
YM - long at 26405 off deep retracement

Previous swing had poor projection, and we're approaching a longer term 1:1 so lower probability on this one....
  • #35,954
  • Jan 25, 2018 11:39am Jan 25, 2018 11:39am
Quoting Lawnman
{quote} Do you have a target for the day and quit? I may need to adopt something like that in my plan, was up +29, now up +4.
Hello, Like Damian mentioned before, you only need 20 points per day to grow big over time. Watch his video about money management. If I make on average 20 points per day I'm up 20% at the end of the month.
  • #35,955
  • Jan 25, 2018 11:50am Jan 25, 2018 11:50am
Okay...This one is bugging me.

This was a loser earlier today (-33) and if I had avoided this entry there really wasn't a good rotation to get back in until the structure was already broken making a sell entry invalid.

In hindsight I think the retracement move is too strong to take entry on a single rotation candle, even one this big. If I had waited I wouldn't have found another entry to the downside and saved some money.

Regardless of the outcome was this a valid entry or too aggressive given the strong initial retracement to the upside?

Thanks!
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  • #35,956
  • Jan 25, 2018 11:57am Jan 25, 2018 11:57am
Quoting AzizLight
Okay...This one is bugging me. This was a loser earlier today (-33) and if I had avoided this entry there really wasn't a good rotation to get back in until the structure was already broken making a sell entry invalid. In hindsight I think the retracement move is too strong to take entry on a single rotation candle, even one this big. If I had waited I wouldn't have found another entry to the downside and saved some money. Regardless of the outcome was this a valid entry or too aggressive given the strong initial retracement to the upside? Thanks!...
Aziz I think it was valid, I was actually long at the time from 26301. Technically was there a NSL (26286) - yes, but it was very weak and followed by terrific bullish rotation.
  • #35,957
  • Jan 25, 2018 12:41pm Jan 25, 2018 12:41pm
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} Aziz I think it was valid, I was actually long at the time from 26301. Technically was there a NSL (26286) - yes, but it was very weak and followed by terrific bullish rotation.
Thanks, bmdenton.

Perhaps that last third of the move down, the surge of the bears to make a NSL, was their hail mary. That kind of wiped them out until after noon.

Thanks for the feedback!
  • #35,958
  • Jan 25, 2018 1:03pm Jan 25, 2018 1:03pm
Quoting AzizLight
Okay...This one is bugging me. This was a loser earlier today (-33) and if I had avoided this entry there really wasn't a good rotation to get back in until the structure was already broken making a sell entry invalid. In hindsight I think the retracement move is too strong to take entry on a single rotation candle, even one this big. If I had waited I wouldn't have found another entry to the downside and saved some money. Regardless of the outcome was this a valid entry or too aggressive given the strong initial retracement to the upside? Thanks!...
Personally, looking at your entry I wouldn't be looking for shorts just yet. Clearly by the yellow area in my picture is seems to have broken the low and could be grounds for a change in expectation. But through watching Mr. Pip trade, seeing how close the other area of buyers is, I would open up the area to include that structure as well (shown in orange) because we are looking at zones. Plus seeing the nice rotation candle in that area, I would be hesitant to trade against it especially with that following strength. Hopefully, this explanation helps my friend.
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  • #35,959
  • Jan 25, 2018 1:18pm Jan 25, 2018 1:18pm
Quoting S41nt
{quote} Personally, looking at your entry I wouldn't be looking for shorts just yet. Clearly by the yellow area in my picture is seems to have broken the low and could be grounds for a change in expectation. {image}
Thanks saint,

admittedly I wasn’t going that far back but looking at it that way shows an upside down replay of a winning trade I took in morning. Just need to hone my eyes to this stuff. It’s gonna take a while to hammer out the details. Thanks for the insight!

-Brent
  • #35,960
  • Jan 25, 2018 1:29pm Jan 25, 2018 1:29pm
2 trades on USDJPY

1 winn
1 loss

The first trade I have no idea why I entered there... in real time I thought i saw a rotation candle, but when I look at it now I dont see it.
The second trade I closed to soon again
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veni vidi vici
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