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  • #14,861
  • Jan 24, 2018 8:37pm Jan 24, 2018 8:37pm
Quoting pgr45za
{quote} Please explain what you are thinking. Why would U fall because of risk on? If equities attract capital, also from abroad, then U should strengthen. Also, with Trump's tax reform, which is positive for capital income and repatriation of firms' cash abroad, U should strengthen again. Then why is U falling? I think it has more to do with USA wanting a soft dollar to make exports cheaper in the middle of a trade war it has started (NAFTA, washing machines, etc. etc.), where other countries will do tit for tat and the only way to keep selling...
I remember reading in 2014 when the $ was relatively weak, that for the first time in quite a few years, more international funds were starting to be repatriated from emerging economies than were going into them. This process coincided with a huge strengthening of USD index which is to be expected. With the $ then at a high in 2017, it is perfect time to sell it and purchase equities, resulting in huge sell off during 2017, coinciding with large jump in DOW. It makes sense to me that smart money, (big money), produce and take advantage of large swings, buying USD when cheap and selling it (or shifting it elsewhere) when expensive. They literally don't stop making money.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #14,862
  • Jan 24, 2018 9:44pm Jan 24, 2018 9:44pm
The USD tumbled against all majors on Wednesday. The US Secretary of the Treasury issued comments in support of a weaker dollar. The combination of a lower currency and a tough stance on trade has sparked concerns that a global trade war could ignite. The US dollar has lacked traction in 2018 as domestic political uncertainty and economic recovery abroad continue to put downward pressure on the greenback. The highlight for the market on Thursday will be the press conference from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi.

  1. The ECB minutes from December diverged form what Draghi said
  2. The World Economic Forum in Davos continues in Switzerland
  3. US Commerce Secretary talked up hardline approach to trade

Plan your trade and Trade your plan.
  • #14,863
  • Jan 24, 2018 10:29pm Jan 24, 2018 10:29pm
UJ in.
  • #14,864
  • Jan 24, 2018 11:14pm Jan 24, 2018 11:14pm
NU and AU should not be at this prices and wont stay here long.Reality is both economies are doing poorly.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #14,865
  • Jan 24, 2018 11:31pm Jan 24, 2018 11:31pm
damn eur/usd... not respecting any of my weekly pivot
scalping is the way to survive...
  • #14,866
  • Jan 24, 2018 11:43pm Jan 24, 2018 11:43pm
Quoting Davit
NU and AU should not be at this prices and wont stay here long.Reality is both economies are doing poorly.
Don't forget that NZ has the highest interest rates among the major currency countries at 1.75%. Australia is tied with US at second at 1.5%. see http://www.centralbanknews.info/p/interest-rates.html. Therefore, there will still be the carry trade impact that supports/strengthens the NZD in particular, vs the USD. see https://www.forbes.com/sites/investo.../#647284bf4d91.

So I see the rationale for the NZD continuing to being elevated. However, I don't fully understand the AUD strength, especially when iron ore prices are dropping.
  • #14,867
  • Jan 24, 2018 11:52pm Jan 24, 2018 11:52pm
Quoting pakeha
{quote} Don't forget that NZ has the highest interest rates among the major currency countries at 1.75%. Australia is tied with US at second at 1.5%. see http://www.centralbanknews.info/p/interest-rates.html. Therefore, there will still be the carry trade impact that supports/strengthens the NZD in particular, vs the USD. see https://www.forbes.com/sites/investo.../#647284bf4d91. So I see the rationale for the NZD continuing to being elevated. However, I don't fully...
As long as that pretender opposition leader Shorten backs Australias' signing of the TPP deal (and I think it would be political suicide for him not to), the AUD has reason to strengthen, particularly against the backdrop of a USD index, which on all significant TFs', is in freefall. USA withdrawing from the TPP deal is also not likely to help USD.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #14,868
  • Jan 25, 2018 12:03am Jan 25, 2018 12:03am
Thought I would provide another quick update on oil and the CAD while I was at it.

As we know the price of WTI has been increased by just under 3 bucks since last Friday. However, the USDCAD has basically been going sideways (little or no WTI/USDCAD correlation), until the non-oil related USD news today. The stocks of Canadian oil companies (as per XEG:TO) have also been going sideways. The reason has been that the price of WCS oil (Western Canada Select) has actually been going down as the price of WTI (West Texas Intermediate) has been going up. I touched on the reason for this (pipeline issues) in a previous post.

In todays Financial Post (Canadian paper) another great article http://business.financialpost.com/co...-swing-shipper. In short the Canadian oil companies have been using rail as a transport mechanism to get oil to refineries/ports as a way to overcome, in part, the pipeline infrastructure issues, albeit at a much higher cost than using pipelines. Now the rail companies want long term contracts for oil transport to ensure they have this business even when the new pipelines (e.g. Keystone) come on stream in a few years.

Bottomline - the Canadian oil industry dynamic is pushing the price of WCS even lower and the price differential between WTI and WCS is at an all time high.
  • #14,869
  • Jan 25, 2018 2:56am Jan 25, 2018 2:56am
Quoting Davit
beautiful RED number on NZD Will hold this to 100 see my calendar post. {image}
Outstanding Davit !
"What Goes Up, Must Come Down." - (c) Sir Isaac Newton - 1647
  • #14,870
  • Jan 25, 2018 5:35am Jan 25, 2018 5:35am
Started building a few EURUSD shorts from 1.24145 region.

Ben
  • #14,871
  • Jan 25, 2018 5:40am Jan 25, 2018 5:40am
GBPUSD seems in a critical point...
Will it break through or bounce back?
  • #14,872
  • Jan 25, 2018 5:48am Jan 25, 2018 5:48am
Quoting thkim
GBPUSD seems in a critical point... Will it break through or bounce back?
What do you think? What is price action telling you?

Ben
  • #14,873
  • Jan 25, 2018 5:58am Jan 25, 2018 5:58am
Quoting esk1mooo
{quote} What do you think? What is price action telling you? Ben
it seems first touch since june 2016, so will it bounce back?
But who knows? it's a crazy market.
  • #14,874
  • Jan 25, 2018 6:16am Jan 25, 2018 6:16am
Quoting thkim
{quote} it seems first touch since june 2016, so will it bounce back? But who knows? it's a crazy market.
For me I want to see a structure break of these lows. If this breaks, I'll wait for pullbacks and signals to sell.

Ben
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.png Size: 111 KB
  • #14,875
  • Jan 25, 2018 7:33am Jan 25, 2018 7:33am
USDJPY
https://goo.gl/fpvjoL

Green pips everyone!
Plan your trade and Trade your plan.
  • #14,876
  • Jan 25, 2018 7:39am Jan 25, 2018 7:39am
Quoting Opayq
USDJPY https://goo.gl/fpvjoL Green pips everyone!
live ECB meeting
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvse...t_pc_m.en.html

So far he is very dovish saying stimulate will continue
Ignore the current spike he has not said anything bullish yet
Are you guys listening?
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #14,877
  • Jan 25, 2018 7:42am Jan 25, 2018 7:42am
Quoting Davit
{quote} live ECB meeting https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvse...t_pc_m.en.html So far he is very dovish saying stimulate will continue Ignore the current spike he has not said anything bullish yet Are you guys listening?
Monitoring charts, but can't listen currently. Thanks for the update.
  • #14,878
  • Jan 25, 2018 7:45am Jan 25, 2018 7:45am
Quoting Davit
{quote} live ECB meeting https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvse...t_pc_m.en.html So far he is very dovish saying stimulate will continue Ignore the current spike he has not said anything bullish yet Are you guys listening?
Waiting
https://goo.gl/6LAoDp
Plan your trade and Trade your plan.
  • #14,879
  • Jan 25, 2018 8:25am Jan 25, 2018 8:25am
With the help of NZD bad CPI %.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADM30.png Size: 47 KB
  • #14,880
  • Jan 25, 2018 1:16pm Jan 25, 2018 1:16pm
EU, Start going down, Dialy y fibo 61%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: B1PNMYv.png Size: 59 KB
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