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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #35,901
  • Jan 24, 2018 1:47pm Jan 24, 2018 1:47pm
Quoting AzizLight
+32 on YM today. It's starting to feel less like it's luck and more like it's the fulfillment of an expectation. Even an expectation failure creates a new expectation that I'm trusting to let play out.....and HOLY COW it seems to really work! Can't wait for tomorrow! Thanks again, Mr. Pip! Edit: Jumped into a few more this afternoon as there seemed to be some good movement. Now +70 {image}
Glad to hear it. Keep it up!!!!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #35,902
  • Jan 24, 2018 2:01pm Jan 24, 2018 2:01pm
My 2 trades for today ... not bad but left a lot on the table, especially the first trade.

USDJPY
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veni vidi vici
  • #35,903
  • Jan 24, 2018 4:10pm Jan 24, 2018 4:10pm
Are we noticing how many of you are turning that corner? The improvement has been significant and it’s becoming consistent. I’m super motivated and proud to be a part of your journey.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #35,904
  • Jan 24, 2018 4:16pm Jan 24, 2018 4:16pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Are we noticing how many of you are turning that corner? The improvement has been significant and it’s becoming consistent. I’m super motivated and proud to be a part of your journey.
how important is to you the structure (previous support and resistance?) if u don't have any would u still take the trade? i find that i keep forgeting looking to the left to see if there is any structure
  • #35,905
  • Jan 24, 2018 4:54pm Jan 24, 2018 4:54pm
Quoting vladutz112
{quote} how important is to you the structure (previous support and resistance?) if u don't have any would u still take the trade? i find that i keep forgeting looking to the left to see if there is any structure
Structure is always important. It adds to the confluence factor that we like to see. The more obstacles for price the better. The biggest factor about structure is that it allows us to see what kind of decisions have been made at a particular price level. This is a very important factor to take into consideration as part of your division making. Hope that help.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #35,906
  • Jan 24, 2018 4:58pm Jan 24, 2018 4:58pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Structure is always important. It adds to the confluence factor that we like to see. The more obstacles for price the better. The biggest factor about structure is that it allows us to see what kind of decisions have been made at a particular price level. This is a very important factor to take into consideration as part of your division making. Hope that help.
i will watch your videos again tomorow thx
  • #35,907
  • Jan 24, 2018 6:56pm Jan 24, 2018 6:56pm
Hello Mr. Pip. Can you clarify if the 70% expectation you talk about are for trades taken from the golden zone (61.8 - 78.6) that will a least make it back to 0 on the fib tool?
  • #35,908
  • Jan 24, 2018 7:41pm Jan 24, 2018 7:41pm
Quoting gridfxtrader
Hello Mr. Pip. Can you clarify if the 70% expectation you talk about are for trades taken from the golden zone (61.8 - 78.6) that will a least make it back to 0 on the fib tool?
No, the expection is part of structure analysis (NSH, HL, LH & NSL) these expectations play out over 70% of the time providing you don’t mix up order flow and you identify a proper main swing. Review the structure analysis lesson on my channel.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #35,909
  • Jan 24, 2018 10:07pm Jan 24, 2018 10:07pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
OK Traders, I've see in the thread a few posts about stats. How to calculate Sharp Ratios and such. Traders, don't get hung up on this. This will not improve your trading. I have seen much improvement in the decision making which has translated into profitability. Your P/L as well as the stats are a by product of good decision making. Let's keep reading and focusing on consistency. I don't care about my stats I only care about my next trade and the decisions I need to make. That's how I trade. That's how I win consistently. You should not need stats...
I'll say the biggest value I've found in keeping detailed statistics are:

1. Comparing my performance for various trading systems

2. Reaffirming my confidence in a profitable system (like this one), when I have a few losing days. If you have a large enough sample size, that statistically speaking tells you that your system has positive expectancy, you can have the confidence to go through a few losing days knowing, not guessing, but knowing that you will continue to make money on the other side of that drawdown.

I think that most of the traders here who trade the YM had a good day today. In the 3 days prior to today, I had a grand total of -26 points. I know that Mr. Pip had back to back losing days (not counting his Long Term trade that finished today). Guessing those back to back losing days didn't phase him one bit. Use your statistics to tell you something about your expectancy, and if it's a positive expectancy, trade everyday like you're going to make money. And if you don't, but statistically still have positive expectancy, remind yourself of that, say NEXT, and show up the next day ready to go.
  • #35,910
  • Edited 4:29am Jan 25, 2018 12:55am | Edited 4:29am
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} I'll say the biggest value I've found in keeping detailed statistics are: 1. Comparing my performance for various trading systems 2. Reaffirming my confidence in a profitable system (like this one), when I have a few losing days. If you have a large enough sample size, that statistically speaking tells you that your system has positive expectancy, you can have the confidence to go through a few losing days knowing, not guessing, but knowing that you will continue to make money on the other side of that drawdown. I think that most of the...


I add my 2 cents on top of what has been said by bmdenton23:
The human brain tend also after a nice day to quickly forget bad moments (in this case losses) and the person would honestly think, that he/she is still doing great. However, the figures would then show in total a postive day/month, but the loss proportion would be huge. This should be alarming and this is not necessarily visible on the account balance at the end.

NB: For me the money value is not important when doing this exercise, since it also highly dependent on the lot size and account size. However, the other figures give information (which I do not fully know right now what they mean) and (hopefully) finally to confirm and give confidence of what someone is doing on the long run is the right thing (also to be prepared when a bad period comes; like do not change anything=> trade your plan, it will become better).

Anyway, this is only a remark and not to be understood as wanting to start to argue.
  • #35,911
  • Jan 25, 2018 1:02am Jan 25, 2018 1:02am
Quoting vladutz112
{quote} how important is to you the structure (previous support and resistance?) if u don't have any would u still take the trade? i find that i keep forgeting looking to the left to see if there is any structure
For me, structure is a key element beside harmonic confluences, fib ratios,...
  • #35,912
  • Jan 25, 2018 2:35am Jan 25, 2018 2:35am
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} I'll say the biggest value I've found in keeping detailed statistics are: 1. Comparing my performance for various trading systems 2. Reaffirming my confidence in a profitable system (like this one), when I have a few losing days. If you have a large enough sample size, that statistically speaking tells you that your system has positive expectancy, you can have the confidence to go through a few losing days knowing, not guessing, but knowing that you will continue to make money on the other side of that drawdown. I think that most of the...
Nicely said buddy!
"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #35,913
  • Jan 25, 2018 4:48am Jan 25, 2018 4:48am
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} I'll say the biggest value I've found in keeping detailed statistics are: 1. Comparing my performance for various trading systems 2. Reaffirming my confidence in a profitable system (like this one), when I have a few losing days. If you have a large enough sample size, that statistically speaking tells you that your system has positive expectancy, you can have the confidence to go through a few losing days knowing, not guessing, but knowing that you will continue to make money on the other side of that drawdown. I think that most of the...
no. 2- hell yeah.
  • #35,914
  • Jan 25, 2018 4:48am Jan 25, 2018 4:48am
EURUSD 5M Short
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  • #35,915
  • Jan 25, 2018 5:51am Jan 25, 2018 5:51am
Quoting cititon
EURUSD 5M Short {image}
Same thing on tick chart, not the best entry.
@ Parviz: Thanks for the tickchart indi

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  • #35,916
  • Jan 25, 2018 5:54am Jan 25, 2018 5:54am
Quoting cititon
EURUSD 5M Short {image}

update EURUSD 5m short

SL moved to BE +
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  • #35,917
  • Jan 25, 2018 6:17am Jan 25, 2018 6:17am
Quoting cititon
{quote} update EURUSD 5m short SL moved to BE + {image}
nice job, i took this sell trade on the previous down swing for +21. I probably should have kept it
  • #35,918
  • Jan 25, 2018 6:21am Jan 25, 2018 6:21am
Quoting waqz12345
{quote} nice job, i took this sell trade on the previous down swing for +21. I probably should have kept it
Try to remove ' 'probably should have' and follow the rules, they will win in the long run. Believe me I learned the hard way.

Hope your trading is going good!
"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #35,919
  • Jan 25, 2018 6:55am Jan 25, 2018 6:55am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Are we noticing how many of you are turning that corner? The improvement has been significant and it’s becoming consistent. I’m super motivated and proud to be a part of your journey.
I definitely feel that I am turning a corner and beginning to see some light ahead. Also, every day it hits me more and more how great it is that you have made yourself available to us all! I only hope as my busy lawn season gets closer that I can continue to trade the YM during prime time. I will have to really juggle my schedule to make it happen, but this is really important to me for both my future and the future of my family. Thank you very much Damian!
Wow! I've got some experience to gain.
  • #35,920
  • Jan 25, 2018 7:01am Jan 25, 2018 7:01am
Quoting Sheeep44
{quote} Try to remove ' 'probably should have' and follow the rules, they will win in the long run. Believe me I learned the hard way. Hope your trading is going good!
god knows you're right
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