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My trades by Dave

  • #1,641
  • Sep 26, 2006 2:30am Sep 26, 2006 2:30am
hi David ,we will have another target at 1.2600 on Oct ,10th,2006
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  • #1,642
  • Edited 6:46am Sep 26, 2006 6:33am | Edited 6:46am
Quoting Lou
Hi Dave,

could you please explain the calculations involved in the chart diagram just above ... with the projection to 1.31 Obviously 1.61 is the golden ratio but how is it drawn? Why is that distance 1.61

Thanks

Lou
its based on harmonic patterns. The retrace down was 61.8 and it turned up. This is based on a,b=c,d.
Once reaching this projection point would give way to a very big wave down past where we are right now.

If you see I quickly added that the move down(current) would possibly extend further. I posted that befor this latest thrust down that started 3 hrs ago. So I didn't want any one to try to go long yet.

Adam if you see now your target could be hit long befor that date you posted. I did say it could go this far befor going to my target. Your target is good just sooner than you think
edit:and actually it could go as low as 1.2500 befor going to my target as a wave e can over extend.

see my long term chart. it needs a wave 5 added to the top. A triangle usually happens like this in a wave 4. meaning this move up is comming to an end.
"ballancing of forces" so for there to be a ballance my target projection 61.8 is viable.

""""Triangles appear to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. Triangles contain five overlapping waves that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3 and are labeled a-b-c-d-e. A triangle is delineated by connecting the termination points of waves a and c, and b and d. Wave e can undershoot or overshoot the a-c line, and in fact, our experience tells us that it happens more often than not.""""
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  • #1,643
  • Sep 26, 2006 6:47am Sep 26, 2006 6:47am
here is the daily on the big wedge count.

where will wave E go? stay tuned......

Dave

edit remember the quote I posted above....e can under shoot as well as over shoot. Makes it hard to enter on a wave e if it undershoots.
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  • #1,644
  • Sep 26, 2006 8:26am Sep 26, 2006 8:26am
revised wedge count.

didn't have trend lines correct.

wave d doesn't look complete. This wave down can go further and bounce off trend line. I have an entry in tight s/l news is comming. didn't realise it untill after i entered. "DoH"

Dave
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  • #1,645
  • Sep 26, 2006 8:47am Sep 26, 2006 8:47am
hedged entry 1.2695/97
s/l 20 pips either side.
e-trailing will trail to b/e when a s/l is hit and trail every 2 pips after


dave
  • #1,646
  • Sep 26, 2006 10:18am Sep 26, 2006 10:18am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
hedged entry 1.2695/97
s/l 20 pips either side.
e-trailing will trail to b/e when a s/l is hit and trail every 2 pips after


dave
-20
+7

-13 pips total...
pulled back and hit sl too soon. mabe shoulda moved sl out some to allow retrace. we'll see if it goes down further. Don't like moving s/l further out once placed.

Dave
  • #1,647
  • Sep 26, 2006 10:40am Sep 26, 2006 10:40am
well theres that trend line bounce I was talking about.

gotta get myself off that 1 hr time chart once trade is made and keep an eye on support resistance.

I just posted this too right befor news.

O well. If I am correct the next ewo signal long should ride to the top trend line.

Dave
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  • #1,648
  • Edited 7:58pm Sep 26, 2006 7:12pm | Edited 7:58pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Hooray for e-trail

turns out price has fallen back to support. 2 pips was all I was gonna get anyways.

Here is the EA for those on meta4.

defalt setting is trailing stop- 8 this is at what point it will move s/l to be.

trailing step is what incrament it will trail after moving to b/e.

Dave
Anyone know how to make this "e-trailing EA" (see post #1633) chart specific or modify it so that it doesn't apply to ALL open positions ? This seems crazy you would want to use the same EA to control ALL open positions. I'd like to use it for smaller positions with a stop of around 10 but I still would have other positions open with larger SL/TS. Even if can be made currency specific that would be fine. Thanks in advance.
  • #1,649
  • Sep 27, 2006 8:15am Sep 27, 2006 8:15am
Quoting jhathawa
Anyone know how to make this "e-trailing EA" (see post #1633) chart specific or modify it so that it doesn't apply to ALL open positions ? This seems crazy you would want to use the same EA to control ALL open positions. I'd like to use it for smaller positions with a stop of around 10 but I still would have other positions open with larger SL/TS. Even if can be made currency specific that would be fine. Thanks in advance.
yea that would be good. I'll see if I can get it done for us.
  • #1,650
  • Sep 27, 2006 8:17am Sep 27, 2006 8:17am
Here is another clip on triangles. It has just a little more in it than the last.
I keep posting about them because they mark important points in the market. And are good to know how to trade tham....

If you're new to Elliott, here's what you need to know. A contracting triangle is usually a sideways move comprised of 5 waves, A-B-C-D-E, typically within converging trendlines. They can only form at three different points in a wave pattern, but most commonly in wave 4. And when they end, the resolution is usually sharp and swift. Here's how The Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior book defines them:

"Triangles appear to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. [They] nearly always occur in positions prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree… When a triangle occurs in the fourth wave position, wave five is sometimes swift and travels approximately the distance of the widest part of the triangle."

also the above statement further validates my view on the long term price target.



Dave
  • #1,651
  • Sep 27, 2006 9:25am Sep 27, 2006 9:25am
Ok based on the above methodoligy here is my latest trade. Placed befor news. "I hate news trading" But I didn't want to miss out if news triggered a fast sharp move.

entry: long eur$ 1.2697
s/l 1.2640 (below newly found major fibo support and major trend line support.)

target top trend line.

New fibo support is a fibo pulled from the 1.1643/1.2989 move. Price pulled back to 38.2 fibo and formed the wedge/triangle. Price rose above the 23.6 fibo, pulled back and found support there.

Wave 2 of the over all giant move was a deep one ending between 61.8 and 76.2. So wave 4 should remain sidways.

Dave
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  • #1,652
  • Sep 27, 2006 9:30am Sep 27, 2006 9:30am
Here's the over all chart again.

Dave
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  • #1,653
  • Sep 27, 2006 6:58pm Sep 27, 2006 6:58pm
EWOCCI signal long given at 1.2712

enter when signal candle closes.

s/l 1.2655 below las major support.

I am already in from this morning so this is confirmation of first trade. And oppertunity for second position.

edit: here's chart entry varified on close of candle
Dave
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  • #1,654
  • Sep 27, 2006 11:17pm Sep 27, 2006 11:17pm
Hi Dave,

Preliminary I have looked at your charts.Frankly you are too senior to me that I need time to understand how you analyze.
You have always encouraged me.Today also your visit was an encouragement for me.
I know you are busy but plz keep vising weekly or so, it will be honour for me.

God bless you,

kolachi
  • #1,655
  • Sep 28, 2006 5:52am Sep 28, 2006 5:52am
Quoting kolachi
Hi Dave,

Preliminary I have looked at your charts.Frankly you are too senior to me that I need time to understand how you analyze.
You have always encouraged me.Today also your visit was an encouragement for me.
I know you are busy but plz keep vising weekly or so, it will be honour for me.

God bless you,

kolachi
thanks for the kind words Kolachi. I have much respect for you.

I will visit frequently

Dave
  • #1,656
  • Sep 28, 2006 5:57am Sep 28, 2006 5:57am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
EWOCCI signal long given at 1.2712

enter when signal candle closes.

s/l 1.2655 below las major support.

I am already in from this morning so this is confirmation of first trade. And oppertunity for second position.

edit: here's chart entry varified on close of candle
Dave
My trade was stopped out last night with e-trailing my s/l.

+18 pips.

Price came into resistance on the daily chart at the 55 ema.

I expect the price to remain in its current range for the remainder of the week. I don't belive my bullish view will get under way untill next week.

This should give me another opertunity to go long at or near the bottom of the major trend line of the big wedge. that could be its next target.

Dave
  • #1,657
  • Sep 29, 2006 11:37am Sep 29, 2006 11:37am
I went in on the decline at 1.2670 when it neared daily/weekly trend line.

now there is what looks like a wave 1 of 1 of 3 impulse thats almost finished with 5 waves up. found resistance at 1.2707 pivot. wave 2 can retrace 100% the current rally.

So with news commin at 1 pm est I exited at 1.2690

+20 pips.

If ewocci gives buy signal I'll get back in.

Or if news triggers a deep wave 2 retrace I'll go for a better re-entry near the bottom.

Dave
  • #1,658
  • Sep 29, 2006 11:52am Sep 29, 2006 11:52am
Quoting adam3000
hi David ,we will have another target at 1.2600 on Oct ,10th,2006
came close @ 1.2638. We have 2 weeks of low's to provide support at the 1.2630 range. And judging by the big buy orders it ran into there I doubt it will reach all the way to 1.2600. And if this week closes above the low we'll have 3 weeks of support.

It can return to the support level a couple of times though. So your target isn't out of the question.

Dave
  • #1,659
  • Sep 30, 2006 3:06pm Sep 30, 2006 3:06pm
here is the triangle count revised. I belive I had the top trend line drawn wrong. This would account for the bottom trend line break.

D did reach the top trend line, and E overextended the bottom trend line on friday.

Dave
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  • #1,660
  • Sep 30, 2006 11:28pm Sep 30, 2006 11:28pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
here is the triangle count revised. I belive I had the top trend line drawn wrong. This would account for the bottom trend line break.

D did reach the top trend line, and E overextended the bottom trend line on friday.

Dave
can you analyse GBPUSD?
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