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I challenge you to fail with this

  • #61
  • Jan 23, 2018 6:57am Jan 23, 2018 6:57am
Joseph, the NZDCAD example is nice. Unfortunately, it is very easy to cherry-pick examples from the past. Not all the valid signals are at the beginning of a major trend. I have yet to see the money management approach - TP/SL at least - that would allow anyone to determine if you could in fact gain the 1000 pips in the example provided, and further from a more general perspective "if you could fail with this"!
  • #62
  • Jan 23, 2018 6:58am Jan 23, 2018 6:58am
Quoting pakeha
Joseph, the NZDCAD example is nice. Unfortunately, it is very easy to cherry-pick examples from the past. Not all the valid signals are at the beginning of a major trend. I have yet to see the money management approach - TP/SL at least - that would allow anyone to determine if you could in fact gain the 1000 pips in the example provided, and further from a more general perspective "if you could fail with this"!
This is also why i started the thread. I need your help. We can build something together

Not interested in cherry picking or lose time
  • #63
  • Jan 23, 2018 7:30am Jan 23, 2018 7:30am
Hello,

It's called an 'Outside' bar. There is an indicator for this on FF.
Just put Outside bar into the search window.

One indicator I found highlights both Inside and Outside bars.

Enjoy!
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 in&out.mq4   4 KB | 893 downloads
One against the many.
  • #64
  • Jan 23, 2018 7:44am Jan 23, 2018 7:44am
Quoting FxSpartan
Hello, It's called an 'Outside' bar. There is an indicator for this on FF. Just put Outside bar into the search window. One indicator I found highlights both Inside and Outside bars. Enjoy! {file}
Nothing happens when this indicator is placed onto a chart.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #65
  • Jan 23, 2018 7:49am Jan 23, 2018 7:49am
it works - look for a red or blue line vertically through the candle - you can change the colour
  • #66
  • Jan 23, 2018 8:07am Jan 23, 2018 8:07am
Quoting pakeha
it works - look for a red or blue line vertically through the candle - you can change the colour
awesome thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: in+out.jpg Size: 141 KB
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #67
  • Jan 23, 2018 8:32am Jan 23, 2018 8:32am
But please, leave indicators and just focus on candles and PA, and let's find a good filter and mm
  • #68
  • Jan 23, 2018 9:07am Jan 23, 2018 9:07am
yes , needs a good filter and money management
  • #69
  • Jan 23, 2018 9:19am Jan 23, 2018 9:19am
one lose ! another win
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture 44.PNG Size: 26 KB
  • #70
  • Jan 23, 2018 10:16am Jan 23, 2018 10:16am
maybe someone able could fix this good EA, adding manual Stop Loss and trailing stop? I tested it on Daily with EurNzd and CadJpy and is working fine. The stop is way too large as it is in the EA.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 beovb_buovb_bar.mq4   41 KB | 544 downloads
  • #71
  • Jan 23, 2018 10:19am Jan 23, 2018 10:19am
I suggest to ignore any EA or indicator/alert

in the case of indicator, if it could help us as a filter and in entries and exits, why not... but ignore the rest pls. Focus just on price action and candles
  • #72
  • Jan 23, 2018 11:15am Jan 23, 2018 11:15am
Quoting Joseph95
{quote} NZD/USD last three months {image}
according to your rules the signal candle must close above the previous days HIGH for long trades. In your NU example, this did not happen for the last 2 green boxes. Is this correct?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lookkkkk.PNG Size: 20 KB
  • #73
  • Jan 23, 2018 1:09pm Jan 23, 2018 1:09pm
Hello Joseph

Can you kindly check the image below and let me know if the Blue Boxes are potential Buy opportunities and if Red Boxes are Sell scenarios?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold_Daily.png Size: 57 KB


If these patterns are correct, based on the second candle closure, I should decide for Market Order (BUY/SELL) or Pending Order(BUYSTOP/SELLSTOP)

Please confirm if my understanding is correct.

Regards
Chandan
  • #74
  • Jan 23, 2018 1:46pm Jan 23, 2018 1:46pm
Hello,
Should the trading rules be:
BUY
False breakout of the low price of the previous day candle,
better if the tail of the signal candle is (0.2/3cm) long
AND THEN the current candle closes ABOVE previous day candle CLOSE price.

SELL
False breakout of the high price of the previous day candle,
better if the tail of the signal candle is (0.2/3cm) long
AND THEN the candle closes BELOW previous day candle CLOSE price.

Clearly, I am easily confused but, scanning charts today and re-reading this great thread made me wonder if the above is correct?
Thank you
  • #75
  • Edited 2:56pm Jan 23, 2018 2:35pm | Edited 2:56pm
Quoting chandan655
Hello Joseph Can you kindly check the image below and let me know if the Blue Boxes are potential Buy opportunities and if Red Boxes are Sell scenarios?{image} If these patterns are correct, based on the second candle closure, I should decide for Market Order (BUY/SELL) or Pending Order(BUYSTOP/SELLSTOP) Please confirm if my understanding is correct. Regards Chandan
I think your assessment as to whether these buy/sell boxes are "potential" candidates is accurate. However, it is apparent that not all are winners. I think we need a means to filter out ones that are at the end of a move (e.g. an indicator, oscillator, or maybe just plain 'ol price structure, etc). I took your same chart and added a couple just to see if anything made sense at a glance and they seemed to help. That was 5 minutes worth of work, so I'm not saying it is absolutely the way to go, but it at least points me in a direction to keep testing this theory to see if it is profitable.
[EDIT]
BTW, I think measuring a candle's shadow/tail length by inches/cm's is worthless (really? .2 inches??). How/why in the world would I want to do that? I might have a 10" computer screen or a 32" screen. I might have my price action window scrunched up. Wouldn't it be better to refer to a candle's tail/shadow length as a percentage of the body? I've even seen an indicator on FF that does that...if you have a mind to do that sort of thing.
  • #76
  • Edited 6:35pm Jan 23, 2018 6:05pm | Edited 6:35pm
Anyway guys don’t try to complicate the things and don’t hyperanalize. All what you need is in the first 2 pages: I’ve explained all with perfection and a lot of examples.

Just try to do a backtest starting from where your broker candles start (it could be 2008 or 2000)and to try to fail. You’ll see that without any type of analysis (short term trend, mid term, long term, levels, W1, MN etc) you will have a decent result.
Actually only one person did the backtest and it resulted positive.
  • #77
  • Jan 23, 2018 6:08pm Jan 23, 2018 6:08pm
Quoting chandan655
Hello Joseph Can you kindly check the image below and let me know if the Blue Boxes are potential Buy opportunities and if Red Boxes are Sell scenarios?{image} If these patterns are correct, based on the second candle closure, I should decide for Market Order (BUY/SELL) or Pending Order(BUYSTOP/SELLSTOP) Please confirm if my understanding is correct. Regards Chandan
All correct
  • #78
  • Jan 23, 2018 7:14pm Jan 23, 2018 7:14pm
Quoting Scchplendid
Hello, Should the trading rules be: BUY False breakout of the low price of the previous day candle, better if the tail of the signal candle is (0.2/3cm) long AND THEN the current candle closes ABOVE previous day candle CLOSE price. SELL False breakout of the high price of the previous day candle, better if the tail of the signal candle is (0.2/3cm) long AND THEN the candle closes BELOW previous day candle CLOSE price. Clearly, I am easily confused but, scanning charts today and re-reading this great thread made me wonder if the above is correct?...
That could be stated as:

Buy if,
1. candle (0) is bearish
2. candle (1) is bullish and closes above open of candle (0)

Sell if,
1. candle (0) is bullish
2. candle (1) is bearish and closes below open of candle (0)

You could also try this to see but, I'm still not sure what the exact rules are.
  • #79
  • Jan 24, 2018 1:16am Jan 24, 2018 1:16am
Quoting Joseph95
{quote} And i think also that the point of strength of this "entry method" is that the SL is tight compared to the potential TP: If you lose one, you'll recover with interest in the next trade
I don't see that the SL is tighter than the TP: you enter when price breaks the high of the signal candle, your TP is the size of the signal candle and the SL is below the signal candle. So wouldn`t r:r be 1:1 - SL = TP?
  • #80
  • Jan 24, 2018 1:51am Jan 24, 2018 1:51am
Quoting yonnie
{quote} I don't see that the SL is tighter than the TP: you enter when price breaks the high of the signal candle, your TP is the size of the signal candle and the SL is below the signal candle. So wouldn`t r:r be 1:1 - SL = TP?
2 problems i see with this.

Problem 1. The balance of SL and TP:

The problem with this system is the SL and TP. If we use the length of the previous candle and a 1:1 ri:re, the SL may be to close and we can get stopped out or the TP may be to far and never get reached and then we get stopped out if we go by just the size of previous candle.

I think the system has good entry and we see many wins backtesting but not having the proper SL/TP is balance is what will give losses.


Solution for Problem 1:

We use ATR to measure the average size of a candle over the past 10 candles and we can say 1 ATR is our SL and 1 ATR our TP. This way we know the average volatility of the market and what it is capable of and we can give ourselves 1 or even 2 ATR room for SL, and we wont have to ask too much from the market for our TP since it will be easier for the market to give us 1 ATR(1 candle basically which is a small move to ask from the market) of profit instead of asking the market for a random TP that we just make up that happens to be way too far which is basically asking too much of from the market.

example:

pic below shows ATR at bottom right corner is 64 pips. so in the trade SL and TP both set at 64 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jj.PNG Size: 97 KB


Problem 2. Strong level to protect the SL and driving force to push price to TP

Another issue that makes setting the right SL/TP difficult is the fact that this is based on a pattern of 2 candles and buy/sell stops, so there is no level support or resistance or any level that we can use to protect our SL and say "ok price probably wont break this level so our SL is protected here" and there is no driving force or logic that we know of that is strong enough to push price to reach our TP.


Solution to Problem 2:

I do not know
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