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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #35,721
  • Jan 20, 2018 2:38am Jan 20, 2018 2:38am
Quoting 1 Day ...
Hi Peter Is the above account graph part of Ninja trader or a separate application.......really looks good.....if separate is there a download link available.....I like you had a tough few months November/December.....but have started the new year strong thanks to all on thread and of course Damian. Thanks.
It's part of Ninjatrader.
The indications in red were put there manually by me.
Nice to hear you had a good start of the year .

Maybe consider sharing your trades?
It is always interesting to see other trades, losing or winning
  • #35,722
  • Jan 20, 2018 5:28am Jan 20, 2018 5:28am
Yes will be attempting sharing my trades.....last year from April following Damian took a small £400 account to £2500 upto October then dipped to £2100 end of December ...upto £2300 mid January .... can't afford/justify the £700 for Ninja yet...tried to demo but so frustrating to use/set-up....just swapping to trader-pro...will have to settle with this....and grow account before swapping to futures ....thanks for reply.
  • #35,723
  • Jan 20, 2018 7:18am Jan 20, 2018 7:18am
Quoting PeterT
Account graph in the right direction again. Bad day today unfortunately but the week was good overall. Up 16% for the month. Even if I can't keep it up, I've never been positive for this long so it's improvement Have a nice weekend! {image}
Nice buddy!!
"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #35,724
  • Jan 20, 2018 8:03am Jan 20, 2018 8:03am
Quoting Nikster
{quote} Evocpr, sharpe ratio is the comparison of the risk/reward you take compared to a riskfree investment eg the 10years USbonds. When the ratio is <1 your strategie is worse then the riskfree (lowrisk) investment. When the ratio is >1 your strategie outperforms based on the initial risk you take.
Thank you.

At least one number is now clear. Iguess that this value will always be <1 by this type of investment.
  • #35,725
  • Jan 20, 2018 3:25pm Jan 20, 2018 3:25pm
Quoting AzizLight
Crazy junk on YM today. I'm done at -28. BUT...I made a 5 point profit on my very first week of live trading. I count that as a win! I look forward to next week. Have a great weekend everyone.
Nice results!
"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #35,726
  • Jan 21, 2018 4:40am Jan 21, 2018 4:40am
Quoting Sheeep44
{quote} Nice results!

Hi Sheeep44 , can you share your month results with us , you are trading forex right?

Hope everyone here , who traded live can share their month results here , not to prove or what , just to share and let we all know how the strategy processes and what was possible to be achieve in such a short time , also i can see alot of old old member are not so active here anymore. not sure how are they doing.

Thanks
  • #35,727
  • Jan 21, 2018 6:29am Jan 21, 2018 6:29am
Quoting Sheeep44
{quote} Nice buddy!!
Thanks Sheeep!
It's only over a short period of time and although it looks promising, I am aware that I can easily lose it all and go negative in 1 week
  • #35,728
  • Jan 21, 2018 10:21am Jan 21, 2018 10:21am
For those interested in stats, I found a definition for profit factor and its meaning:

Profit Factor is an index of trading skills. It evaluates with a figure therelation between risk taken and results.
If your trading results are good, your Profit Factor will be higher than 2. Below this figure, you need to review your trading, even if you are making profits. In fact, a Profit Factor lower than 2 shows that the risks you take to increase your capital are too high.

In the medium term, a trader with a Profit Factor lower than 2 is statistically doomed, the risks being too high to make a profit. This means that, at some point, losses will take the lead and that you will not have the ability to recover. With a Profit Factor greater than 2, your losses are covered.

Profit Factor is calculated very simply: you add up all your winning trades and divide them by all your losing trades:
Profit Factor = (sum of earnings) / (sum of losses)

PS: Funny to see that my PF is higher on shorts, although I prefer longs
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  • #35,729
  • Jan 21, 2018 10:36am Jan 21, 2018 10:36am
Thanks very interesting, I immediately checked it!

Quoting evocpr19
.. In the medium term, a trader with a Profit Factor lower than 2 is statistically doomed, the risks being too high to make a profit. ...
At the moment, I'm doomed! 1.51
You seem to be pretty safe
  • #35,730
  • Edited 1:32pm Jan 21, 2018 12:32pm | Edited 1:32pm
Quoting PeterT
Thanks very interesting, I immediately checked it! {quote} At the moment, I'm doomed! 1.51 You seem to be pretty safe
you're welcome.

Actually, if I only look at the results last week. It was an absolute perfect week, since I took longs with much bigger TP. All in all, I am very happy.
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  • #35,731
  • Jan 21, 2018 1:38pm Jan 21, 2018 1:38pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} you're welcome. Actually, if I only look at the results last week. It was an absolute perfect week, since I took longs with much bigger TP. All in all, I am very happy. {image}
Now you're just showing off! 48.62 that's ridiculous.

Just kidding
  • #35,732
  • Jan 21, 2018 2:03pm Jan 21, 2018 2:03pm
I'll chime in about Profit Factor.
Here's the link to the NinjaTrader 8 Trade Performance page with explanations: https://ninjatrader.com/support/helpGuides/nt8/en-us/statistics_definitions.htm

Profit Factor is defined: Gross Profit / Gross Loss

Profit Factor is easily confused, and frankly the term is sometimes used in the place of....
Avg Win/Loss Ratio: Average Winning Trade / Average Losing Trade

I'll give personal examples from October-January(present) thus far:
- PF = 2.28 - that means my gross profit is 2.28x my gross loss. For example that could mean that my gross profit was $228 and my gross loss was $100.
- W/L Ratio = 1.01 - that means my average win is 101% of the amount of my average loss, for example my average win could be $101 and my average loss could be $100.
- W/L% = 72%

What's interesting about W/L Ratio, is that for most systems, it can be represented as an inverse ratio of winning percentage.
For example my W/L% for this time frame is 72%. Meaning 72% of trades I make money. I could easily make that 90%, but if I did, my W/L Ratio would be terrible. I could also make my W/L Ratio be around 2, but my W/L% would drop well below 50%.

Mr Pip gave us his stats for the trading range of 9/1 - 11/22.
He had a W/L% of 80% and a W/L Ratio of 2.08. His winning percentage is slightly better than my win% for my given time frame, but his w/l ratio is twice as efficient.

There are traders with negative W/L%, in some cases as low as 30-35%, that have W/L ratios of 4:1 or better and are successful long term.
  • #35,733
  • Edited 5:26pm Jan 21, 2018 5:09pm | Edited 5:26pm
Quoting bmdenton23
I'll chime in about Profit Factor. Here's the link to the NinjaTrader 8 Trade Performance page with explanations: https://ninjatrader.com/support/helpGuides/nt8/en-us/statistics_definitions.htm Profit Factor is defined: Gross Profit / Gross Loss Profit Factor is easily confused, and frankly the term is sometimes used in the place of.... Avg Win/Loss Ratio: Average Winning Trade / Average Losing Trade I'll give personal examples from October-January(present) thus far: - PF = 2.28 - that means my gross profit is 2.28x my gross loss. For...
So you could easily have answered my question in my post 35717.

Anyway, I try currently to figure out the meaning of the stats and what I can deduct from them (since no clue). How do you get this W/L% value? (sorry in advance, if it is a stupid question)

I know my W/L for both periods:
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  • #35,734
  • Jan 22, 2018 4:58am Jan 22, 2018 4:58am
EURUSD 58tick chart

Long entry after rotation in AOI (golden zone+structure)
When price came into TP area, bulls looked aggressive.
Expected a shallow correction because of the great impulse move up, and anticipated one further swing up.
I was afraid that I would not be able to enter for the second swing because of the shallow correction I expected.
That's where I decided to not follow my rules and stayed in the trade.

However, I got a pretty deep correction.
And since I decided to break rules and also trade that second swing, I had to put my SL below the first swing, and not at BE.
So I endured quite a lot of pain as you can see on the chart (bears came back deep and did not surrender easily).
Eventually got to BE when reaching structure and trailed 58 tick candles when 127 ext was reached.

So happy with the result but I think the decision to stay in the trade and wait for a second swing was a bad decision.
I should have taken profit according to my rules.
By doing it this way and waiting for the second swing, I gave all my profit from the first swing back before continuing upwards.
It is probably not a favourable strategy in the longer term so will not do this again.
And also, because I knew I was breaking a rule, I experienced a lot of fear.
Still I stood through it. I did what I had to do after the rule breaking and kept following the rules.
I think that is why the market forgave me this time

+19 pips or +59 euro

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  • #35,735
  • Jan 22, 2018 8:31am Jan 22, 2018 8:31am
Mornin' folks!
Wow! I've got some experience to gain.
  • #35,736
  • Jan 22, 2018 8:42am Jan 22, 2018 8:42am
Quoting Lawnman
Mornin' folks!
good afternoon'
"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #35,737
  • Jan 22, 2018 8:42am Jan 22, 2018 8:42am
GBPUSD 58tick
Short
Was a bit risky as price corrected 100% but that gives good risk reward.
SL right above the swing.

Was hit -4 pips or -17 euro

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  • #35,738
  • Jan 22, 2018 8:44am Jan 22, 2018 8:44am
Morning Traders! Let's see what we get today.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #35,739
  • Jan 22, 2018 8:45am Jan 22, 2018 8:45am
let's gooooo
  • #35,740
  • Jan 22, 2018 8:48am Jan 22, 2018 8:48am
Hi Guys, good Morning,
Seems i had no luck at first attempt, let me try again with my question :
"For whom that have set a specific duration to his trading session, How do you manage a trade that is taking longer to develop? Say you entered a trade that is in line with what is taught here, but price haven't already made a satisfiying move in your direction, and your session is running out of time.
What would you do?

1-Close the trade anyway at BE or a small loss
2-Set the stop accordingly to the plan and the present market conditions and walk away from the screen (of course this can bring to a greater loss than point
1, but you leave yourself the chance to let your analysis have his course)
3-Stay at the screen and manage your trade personally till the end result. "

Thank You
maxx
If you quit, it is NEVER going to happen...
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