What works, and what doesn't | Page 15 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

variety of resources what works and what doesn't 98 replies

EA works on one broker, doesn't on another 4 replies

If it works, it works... 3 replies

EA Works, Then Doesn't 1 reply

Why an EA works for some currancies and not others? 10 replies

Attachments: What works, and what doesn't
Exit Attachments

What works, and what doesn't

  • #281
  • Dec 17, 2017 5:50pm Dec 17, 2017 5:50pm
Quoting bloodpoodle
I have done backtests of multiple systems trying to find what works and what doesn't work. The one thing I found is market likes to be efficient and doesn't like quick moves which are highly inefficient. Market likes to range 75% of the time So these quick inefficient moves often get faded right back into range. This is what my research has shown. If you have other research consisting of 1000 back tests in all market conditions please share! I'm looking for statistical proof of what works and what doesn't. Please post any research of 1000+ backtests...
If trend lines don't work, then no need to mention S/R in the market
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
  • #282
  • Dec 17, 2017 7:34pm Dec 17, 2017 7:34pm
Bloodpoodle you are on to something here, you are looking through foggy glasses but you are seeing more than most traders.I actually found the holy grail, and no its not a system or strategy but a method or lens you look a the market through. The principles are objective but the decisions made using these principles are subjective. You see, based on the nature of the markets, the holy grail is not a 100% win but rather above 75% consistent win rate, and this win rate goes up or down based on r:r. one can still find a way to lose with the holy grail if they are indisciplined, but due to the way the method is formulated and modified throughout the years and is thus perfected its hard to lose. The holygrail takes into account tried and tested fundamental market principles and presents them in simpler more visual way to the trader who then decides what to do with the info or how he or she wants to apply it. Its not easy to master but once it is the trader will be set for life. Technical analysis has been dead a long time, there is only fundamental analysis but not news trading or whatever else you are thinking when you hear "fundamental analysis". simply put the holy grail method presents what i call the convergent questions;why, how and when price will move. I don't post much here and i cant type well long messages but i wanted to point you in the right direction. I won't give a free lunch because one must be determined enough to make it in life and in anything they do but i'll say this, retailers lose because most are lazy and so they only find the losing knowledge on the surface. Some knowledge is placed there to hook and then most become addicted, an addict is not a trader, they must seek help. Think on this: If popular knowledge on trading were put there by elites for retailer success then 90% would win and 10% lose and not other way around, go against the grain...
  • #283
  • Dec 18, 2017 1:38am Dec 18, 2017 1:38am
Hi blackpoodle,

I would like to ask what is liquidity. Is low liquidity defined as price areas where price can move through smoothly/easily?
If so, for stocks, is the amt of volume considered to be something different from the above meaning?

Thanks!
  • #284
  • Dec 18, 2017 1:46am Dec 18, 2017 1:46am
Quoting Diverge
Bloodpoodle you are on to something here, you are looking through foggy glasses but you are seeing more than most traders.I actually found the holy grail, and no its not a system or strategy but a method or lens you look a the market through. The principles are objective but the decisions made using these principles are subjective. You see, based on the nature of the markets, the holy grail is not a 100% win but rather above 75% consistent win rate, and this win rate goes up or down based on r:r. one can still find a way to lose with the holy grail...
I would disagree that technical analysis is dead. I think the main issue in technical analysis is people aren't doing it properly. Add that most people probably aren't patient to wait for a good trade and are always looking to get into a trade now when looking at a chart. But, probably the number one issue with technical analysis is trading small time frames. That can screw you up if you do not look at the bigger time frame to see where it is really going. That is where people lose money I think.
  • #285
  • Dec 19, 2017 12:10pm Dec 19, 2017 12:10pm
Quoting bloodpoodle
I have done backtests of multiple systems trying to find what works and what doesn't work. The one thing I found is market likes to be efficient and doesn't like quick moves which are highly inefficient. Market likes to range 75% of the time So these quick inefficient moves often get faded right back into range. This is what my research has shown. If you have other research consisting of 1000 back tests in all market conditions please share! I'm looking for statistical proof of what works and what doesn't. Please post any research of 1000+ backtests...
I think it is relative that what works and what doesn't. What works for one may not work for others. Every trader is unique in psychologically. That's why all successful traders have their own trading style and strategy. It's the common traders who try to exact copy of others style and strategy.
  • #286
  • Edited 3:17am Dec 23, 2017 2:29am | Edited 3:17am
How to spot buyers.
you have confirmed buyers in only one case.. when Resistance is breaking...
Once you see buyers... Its very hard to join them... So much easier to sell to them..
Remember Its not confirmed buying until it has broken a Resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-12-23_00-23.jpg Size: 97 KB


Once you spot the buyers, You can start thinking like a market maker and sell to them.
But you have to know your risk first... Don't just sell every breakout with out doing the work of defining your risk.
This can be done by zooming in on smaller time frames and looking for areas you think will hold.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #287
  • Edited 9:43am Dec 23, 2017 4:30am | Edited 9:43am
Its up to you!
When I point out a price behavior Its up to you to back test it and see if it clicks in your brain. If you relate to it.. after looking at 100's of examples you can build a trade plan around it. Not everything I show will Not click with everybody. Find one thing and become a specialist in it. Master it. Make it your own, on your own timeframe that suits your style, With the risk management and leverage your most comfortable with. Its very important That your just not copying somebody else trying to earn quick money. Develop a deep understanding of Price action behavior, and make a plan to profit from it.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #288
  • Edited 7:54am Dec 23, 2017 7:37am | Edited 7:54am
Steven21- (what is liquidty?, Answered)
When liquidity is low... Price has big movements searching for buyers or sellers to take the opposite side of a trade.
Best Example ever... SNB pulls plug on EUR/CHF floor, causing buyers to pull all the orders.
Price has to drop to find buyers, leaving a huge void in the market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-12-23_05-31.jpg Size: 63 KB


Often we look for gaps in liquidity to get filled in, as price fills in the gap down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-12-23_05-48.jpg Size: 54 KB


Another example from friday on smaller time frame.
Liquidty vanishes at news... Finds sellers.. Heads back down into the gap.
Every gap does not get 100% filled.. Always look to take some profits at area's of Support/resistance.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #289
  • Dec 23, 2017 9:42am Dec 23, 2017 9:42am
Great thread bloodpoodle -- your insights are gems

I am wishing you a safe holiday and a prosperous new year.
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #290
  • Dec 25, 2017 6:26am Dec 25, 2017 6:26am
Price action from Today Trumps What happened last week.

You see a S/R level from 3 weeks ago? Is it gonna hold?
Just because there were sellers 3 weeks ago here does not mean they will be back today.
You must figure out what today is doing before entering. Look for signs sellers are going to come back.
ITs very risky to trade a 3 week old level in the blind.
Try to make your risk as small as possible on the interday chart.
Know what happened before, but trade whats happening now!
Are conditions right for a short today? Or do you need more info?
And yes you should be looking at all time frames... but try to enter on smallest time frame that makes sense for that trade.
If you need to wait for more clues...
Start by looking at Monthly daily 4H 1H.. but then zoom in to see how today is trading and make your decision on today....
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #291
  • Edited 8:36pm Jan 5, 2018 8:15pm | Edited 8:36pm
Some weeks suck... Low volatility

This week was all about stocks... Currency often struggle to move more then 10 pips for hours.
Usually when stocks market hits all time highs... Focus shifts off currency market into Stock market..
Dow pumping up +175 +200 while u/j can't move 10 pips.
Think like a fund manager... Do you really want to be long cash? While stocks are going up 541 points breaking new all time highs?

When stocks are ramping up.. sign of a dead currency market. Be careful.
I did manage 4 scalps all wins. But very frustrating to watch currencys this week.
Usually trading is best when there is bulls and bears in the stock market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-01-05_18-12.jpg Size: 34 KB

You can see from the candle body and the wicks on both ends... That this wasn't a huge week for currency market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-01-05_18-33.jpg Size: 46 KB

Can clearly see from the weak looking currency candle and the strong Stock candle... This week was all about stock market.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #292
  • Jan 14, 2018 12:53am Jan 14, 2018 12:53am
Thinking in terms of probability. ODDS

When you enter a trade you should never be sure of anything. If you are sure of a trade... that's when you keep holding a loser..
Try to assign odds in your head that a trade will work. These odds can be based upon anything you observe and find a pattern in.

Example.. EUR/USD is going up.. Should I short?

1. Its Friday... From my observations Fridays tend to be one way... As nobody wants to fight into the weekend. Odds are poor
2. Stock market is up over 100, Usually when stocks are up dollar is down lately.. odds are poor
3. Higher time frame dollar is lower ageist many other currency. odds are poor.

Odds are overall poor for taking this trade.. Probability is low.
At this point I wouldn't take the trade... I'd have to wait for odds to improve for a short.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #293
  • Jan 14, 2018 3:08am Jan 14, 2018 3:08am
Don't Fight a one way market!

How would you know if market is going on a one way rampage or not?
Its tricky... but if something keeps going and going and going.. You don't wanna step in front of it.
When dollar is dumping against everything... When good news comes out.. but it doesn't go up.
When market just feels like its one way.. Don't force a trade... Wait for a better day.

Spotting a one way market is tricky.. and comes with a lot of chart time and looking at higher time frames. Even then its hard..
for example I knew friday was one way... STocks were flying to new all time highs... Gold was flying too, Dollar was down against every major currrency.. U/J had been in 6 week stall, but now moving downward to new lows.
Wasn't the time to To fight and get long some USD's.. Even with good data.

Remember if going long on good data worked 100% of the time.. we would all be rich and trading would be a lot easier then it is..
Trading is more like poker.. Trying to read what other traders are gonna do.

If your uncertain... its okay to wait for more info.. you don't have to play every hand... And its okay if you miss a trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-01-14_01-07.jpg Size: 55 KB


U/j breaks down... E/U g/U run to multi week highs... gold up 18 .. stocks new all time highs... Its all correlated with USD sell off
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #294
  • Jan 20, 2018 12:48am Jan 20, 2018 12:48am
What does chop look like?

A choppy go no where market Will have lots of long wicks on the candles both up and down side wicks.

So what does a non-chop market look like?
Lots of closes with Little to no wick.

When choosing an area to trade... I like to see a 30m candle with almost no wick... Thats the direction I want to trade in.
I don't chase.. I wait a retest, where i can define my risk. Then I go for it!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-01-19_22-39.jpg Size: 83 KB


Not every Strong candle will work 100% of the time, there is no holy grail.
But A strong close does help your odds out.. And keeps you out of a sloppy whippy market.
Find some examples, and do your own studys on this price behavior.
I find it works best with 30M plus candles. I usually zoom in to 15m, 5m, or 1m to enter the trade.. But its based on a 30M level!
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #295
  • Jan 28, 2018 12:55pm Jan 28, 2018 12:55pm
Playing Defence

If price isn't acting good.. Its a slow day... Mid-range stall, Huge news comming up, ect...
Its okay to have 0 trades in a day. Its okay to wait a few days or longer...
If price isn't acting how you want it to, or think it should... Don't stress .... Just wait...
Most traders lose the most money when trying to Force a trade..
Its better to save the money you have for when Price is acting right.. When it acts how you want it to act.
You don't have to predict every move the market makes... You just have to know When the conditions are right for your set up.
Some of the best traders don't trade everyday. Market not acting right.. they go do something else..
Defend your account first... try to grow it second...
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #296
  • Feb 3, 2018 8:39am Feb 3, 2018 8:39am
HAVE A PLAN!

When you open your charts for the day... You need to make a plan for the day.
The plan could be to Wait, or to trade a level. The idea is not that you must trade right now.
Sometimes you have a good plan... but price never reaches your level. Thats just part of the
game.

Example... Wanted to short spikes in the next 2 hours... But never got the spike I was waiting for.
I had a good plan with tight risk... But never got what I really needed to enter.
Finally hit entry spot late in the day, but did not fit my trade plan at that point.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-02-03_06-37.jpg Size: 78 KB
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #297
  • Feb 7, 2018 4:13pm Feb 7, 2018 4:13pm
FX Lessons

1. you can never force a trade... or be desperate to make money.
Trades come when they choose to.. not when I want them to.
2. Trading pre-news is gambling
3. Trading after a crazy move is gambling. give the market time to settle.
4. If you get in a trade and get a quick 10-20 pip on a spike... Take the money and run...(usually it will come right back)
5. Never chase price same reason as #4.
6. Always know your risk. If your wrong get out.
7. Market opens can be unpredictable.
8. Most the stuff in books doesn't work.. Patterns, Holding winners, ect.
9. 3/4th the battle is against yourself, and your bad habits.
10. you must make your own system, that you fully understand to be profitable.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #298
  • Feb 9, 2018 12:33pm Feb 9, 2018 12:33pm
Emotions and Trading...

we are human... All trades carry emotions. Thats how human brain works
.
The real trick is know which emotions to act on.
1. Fear of loss - Good to pay attention too. Keeps you safe from huge losers.
2. Fear of missing out (FOMO) on a big move.. Bad. When you chase that move only to buy the top.
3. Boredom trades / gambling urges (bad)
4. Gut feeling... Good, if you have a valid reason to enter.
5. Desperation... I have to make 30 pips today... BAD..
6. Greed... I'm gonna use max leverage and get rich quick.. BAD
7. Over Excitement.. wow this NFP data is really moving.. I have to try and make some pips BAD.
8. revenge trades ... Bad

Best to keep a log of your feelings when entering a trade.. See what working for you and whats not.
Emotionless trading is pure B.S. Be very aware of your emotions. Know which ones to act on.. And which ones you must
Fight to ignore. The key is being very aware of your emotions, and using them in your decision making to become a better trader.
For more info.. Read: Market Mind Games by D. Shull
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #299
  • Feb 9, 2018 6:16pm Feb 9, 2018 6:16pm
QUESTIONS TO ASK YOURSELF Before entering..

1. Is there enough volatility to justify the trade... (is market too flat and dead)
2. Is London or USA gonna open soon and mess up the trade.
3. Is there some big news event in coming soon that could mess up the trade.
4. Do I know my risk... and do I have an exit plan should it not play out.
5. Is my target realistic for current conditions.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #300
  • Feb 9, 2018 6:22pm Feb 9, 2018 6:22pm
going good!
Attached Image
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
0 traders viewing now