Pivot Trading

If Shut down is avoided today we can anticipate some profit taking on USD bears and could swing opposite direction for meaningful corrections on USD

AU has no business going above 80 not with present fundamentals.This should melt down soon.I have been reading and educating myself on Aussie economy and its a ticking time bomb.
WE already saw raise in unemployment and this trend could continue plus with highest debt to household spending in developed economies puts a cap on RBA interest rate decision because raising more and you can have massive effect on consumer spending and that effects GDP and employment plus not mentioning effect on foreclosures.
RBA is likey to cut rate not increase it in 2018 or stay put

DISCIPLINE CAN GET YOU PIPS

AUDCAD
https://goo.gl/yUc6C2
Resistance - Correction/Support/Retest - Trend continuation

Green pips everyone!

spectacular!

Someone on popular thread is saying AJ not YET showing weakness or south movement! Really?
50pips is more then decent drop for MOST traders!!!
love FF its continuous learning gold mine.50pip drop is not enough.Whats enough until drops under multiple MA's, Channels,Ribbons confirmed by few oscillators and by the time its good to go swing is over! LOL
To say came late to the party is understatement.

Pivot trading is simple look R61 PA go in.You are not late or early you are right on time!

1. Haters Speak in Projections
2. Haters Always Reveal the Truth
3. Haters Are Obsessed with You
4. Haters Are Mad at Themselves More Than You
5. Haters Are Eaten up with Jealousy
6. Haters Secretly Wish They Were You
7. They Don’t Know, You Know Their Secret

Don’t let them and their dirty tricks steal your focus and keep you from doing what you know you need to do to make the most of your life.Don’t sweat the bullshit and keep doing what you’re doing. If you’re making people jealous then you’re doing it right and don’t let anyone else tell you otherwise.

Cheers!

I love this Davit, and it's taken me a fair while to realise this too. I've always been trying to catch the 'move' with 1 position. But over multiple smaller positions, you don't even need to catch 50 pips...and that's what I've been doing today. Milking the drop on GU over various positions/scalps throughout the day. Even managing a few buys on the 78 bounce from the 5m time frame. It gets real clear when the trade size is super small with multi-time frame analysis - clear as day :-)

Find a great setup and milk it for everything.


GU Scalps

Hi Davit, as a nation we are pumping more money than ever into mortgages and the Chinese are losing some interest due to introduced regulations over here and at home. People are pumped to the eyeballs in mortgage debt. I heard on the news the other day that 1 in 4 parents are skipping meals to ensure kids are fed, a previously unbelievable idea.
Be aware though, the raise is unemployment was accompanied by an increase in participation rate which has been steadily increasing for at least the last 12 months, (and is now close to the highest we have seen since 1978). An increased participation rate will bump up the official unemployment rate until they find jobs. But it's a sign of optimism in the jobs market.
This is closely watched by central banks who want to avoid an overheating economy. A decrease in spending and increased foreclosures due to rate increases are just statistics for their analysis. Those who get in too much debt on the back of low interest rates will pay the price, they always do.
But, Central Banks know it comes with the territory of monetary policy and is a requirement in avoiding an over heating economy. I'm just saying this as the role of central banks is not to always increase GDP, but to manage inflationary pressures/unemployment conditions when needed in their various cycles. Continuing to reduce interest rares (which causes the current state of over spending and high debt levels in the first place), only makes matters worse.

I'll be back; I read that story about 1 in 4 parents in the SMH yesterday and mentioned it my mother last night on the phone
She was saddened that as a 73yr old how things have changed in this country.

It's very sad. Unfortunately many here have been living beyond their means for quite sometime. It can't continue and a wake up to reality is needed. People want to keep up with the Joneses, ignoring their limitations to achieve their lifestyle goals. To much easy money needs to be fazed out slowely.

Calendar events next week

Lets 1st recognize pink elephant in the room.US shutdown government.What this means for USD? Better question would be how would market makers use this event?In the last shutdown USD got stronger and after 6weeks of selling off USD there is a great chance this could be the catalyst for bounce and corrections on USD.

Monday
JPY rate no change but their Press Conference any hint of future hike market will start price it in. I anticipate UJ getting back into weekly range.See chart below.
UP from fri close heading back into grey box

Weds
GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y no change here however I anticipate green number and should it be green we might see EG drop further.

NZD CPIforecast is lower then previous.If red it will be hard for this pair try to stay afloat.I am heavy short on NU 7150 TP area

Thurs
CAD core retail sales. Dec was very rosy 0.8 could of been holiday shopping....I am bearish on CAD and if this comes out red more reason to sell it. Crude dropping will help weaken CAD as well and there are signs its going into corrections at present 6345 drop from 6425 high

ECB Press Conference-Big one. After very quick Euro appreciation I anticipate extreme dovish ECB.Last thing they need is more appreciation.I will look EU to drop below 22 and head towards 21 on the other hand should they drop hints of reducing bond buying this might become bullish however chance of this is not great since after 6weeks of USD sell off its expected corrections to take place.

Friday
GBP-Prelim GDP q/q green here would send EG lower

CAD CPI again Dec was .3 however could of been holiday shopping and this may print red.

USD-Advance GDP q/q forecast is red however this could print green
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m forecast huge green number here.This is good for USD

GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
They move price in most cases.

I am anticipating USD getting stronger next week.Green pips everyone!Went 40-0 last week and good reduction of DD decent gain.Better then losses.I am just happy getting through this month.Has been very challenging but love a challenge!

Many thanks Davit! USD will regain its footing in the next two weeks.

Why 2 weeks @pgr45za?

Another very important development that could have great effect on Euro.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/19/a-ge...is-sunday.html
A crucial German vote this Sunday is seen as the key near-term driver for euro/dollar

If SPD rejects coalition government this sun expect Euro to open lot lower and despite of US shutdown which in my opinion is minor event.

Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX and EM Research at Commerzbank, said Friday that Sunday's decision has the potential to move the euro in either direction.
"Rejection threatens to lead to either a minority government in Berlin or to new elections. Both are not good for the euro simply because they would create uncertainty," he said via email.
"More importantly, however, the GroKo (grand coalition) would probably be euro-positive because this constellation could represent the greatest degree of Germany's support for the French president's European initiative among all conceivable political constellations in Berlin."
Leuchtmann said he could not forecast a result but that SPD delegates are normally "well-behaved party soldiers" who follow the leadership.
In a note Thursday, Morgan Stanley's European FX team wrote that Sunday's vote is the "key potential near-term risk" for unwinding the recent upward run for the euro.
It said a rejection of the deal could see the euro slip back down towards $1.17. Assuming a vote to pursue coalition talks is achieved, Morgan Stanley calls upside resistance at $1.23.

Well I would welcome SPD to reject!

Think like a market maker. Where would you take EU now to confuse, frustrate and trap as many shorts and longs as possible?
I would say north to 1.2365 and then down.

If that plays out, then 1.2365 is next week's high (and an excellent place to short it), followed by a swift move south.
That could take 2 weeks.

PS - Draghi may drum the fact that the EZ is expanding and no longer recovering. That will boost EU.
If on top of that SPD vote helps, EU up we go.

Note: I am short EU through all this mess ...

Good Evening pivoters
Prices moving as expected so far.Nice

where eur/usd going...? base on your pivot davit, it will go to R38 1.2294

If only I'd knew where price is going everyday I would be gazillionaire

Hello to all ,

Entered a SHORT position on AUD/CAD @ .9973
I only trade USD/CAD , normally.
Starting to use different pairs and I love EUR/JPY.
DAVIT , pivot points , PA , ="the best thing that ever happened to my trading" !!!!!

Thank you ,
GE

GM Davit et al,

Just some observations this morning, which I wanted to share with you all on Pivots:

*** Background:

There was a Bearish momentum on AC today where so far I was able to capture +95.7 Pips despite this week's jump of the WP to approx 60 Pips higher, from the R78 level going down to R38, thus increasing my DD. This suggested to me that despite these changes, the new R38 remained as valid as the prior R78. This was associated with the PA moving down during the beginning of the EURO GROUP meeting this morning.

Personally this was a major concern for me requiring further analysis as I was worried about my DD level on this AC pair.

*** Methods of Analysis: Use of PVT- WK against the the Pivot MN and Pivot D1 Charts, as well as the corresponding Harmonic Charts using the M30 TF. Accordingly, the ADR was also evaluated.

*** Raw Data:

WK PIVOT on M30:



Confirmed Bearish pattern with Harmonics with WK PIVOT on M30 with R38:



Looking back further with MN PVT on M30 with at R78:





Finally, honing down with the D1 PVT on M30:





*** Discussion:

PVT WK went significantly higher this week by 60 approx. Pips, compared to both the PVT MN and D1, both remaining the same as was the WK PVT level last week.

As observed, the WK-DVT jump so much higher this week, resulting in the PVT-WK (or 7 days) and immediate effect making a larger DD, thus producing a larger risk of reaching a %Margin < 200 and thereforr a greater risk of a Margin Call.

Perhaps, when 2 out of 3 are PVT frames (MN, D1) are similar vs. the 3rd PVT Frame (WK), with the latter two PVT Frames being identical at R78%, suggesting the last two being a better correlate with the Reversal Swing over time, with stronger probabilities of the PA returning to the Pivot, with such a Pivot-Wk based change and DD.

There was no change in the ADR Indicator across all Charts.

*** Conclusions:

This technique of a broader analysis may be effective in determining the probability of swing reversals across time. However, before a conclusion can be reached, there requires further ongoing observations of different Pair types (Majors vs Crosses vs Commodity Pairs), over period of time and determining and geopolitical events, for these observations to be considered valid and reproducible, with given Currency Pairs.

Surprisingly, the one observation that was consistent across the board was that the ADR Indicator which did not change. Thus, this ADR Indicator may carry more weight in determining PA Reversal, DD, risk-benefits ratios and P/L outcomes. This may be the result of this specific ADR% Indicator using Current day, 1, 5, 10 and 20 Days for its analysis and signals <=75% being low and >=91% considered high. I will need to further look into finding the author(s) of the Code for this Indicator for further analysis as well.

Davit his Post #1, he warns:

"Note very important this system does not work best with hyper pairs that usually have over 120pip ADR like GJ GA GN etc
From numerous trial and errors low ADR pairs fits the best in my method
Pairs I trade most often
UC AC NC EA AU GU NU AN EU"

--- Future Study

Out of curiosity, I would like to run stats in the future on the above observations with ADR, 61-78-100 zones, TDI crosses with post-1 hour numeric Red News outcomes, to determine the predictive values for each of the ideal pair using sensitivity and specificity percent values as well of bell curves, etc.

But, in the end, MDs teaching that you can never know the markets future, only improving winning pips over time assuming the randomness and probabilties of the Markets with a specific leverage or "The Edge" as with Davit's above Pivot Method and Analytical approaches. And, Forex Trading like the practice of Medicine, requires both a scientific approach of probilities and art or intuition based on practice and experiences.
___________________________

Excellent Davit - Thanks again for sharing your knowledge, experiences, unique method and skills in Forex Trading!!!

Cheers all !

- John

It is so simple isn't it?

Just see what the chart tells you.