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High Risk/Low Reward Ratio Trading System

  • #81
  • Jan 11, 2018 7:02am Jan 11, 2018 7:02am
Some time I'm so impressed by the accuracy of my signal, if it wasn't XM has slight wider spread, I would have make till $140 from the $10 starting.

Yet, another signal came in with, 1.1926 SL, 1.1977 TP. 90% Win rate.

My fear come because it draws SO NEAR to the SL, and I'm fear of making decision of holding the position onwards.

I close 85% of the trade on 1.195, taking about 30% profit, since my entry point is on the ratio of 1:2, meaning $15 to make $30, it went making $15.

https://i.snag.gy/vCzxV9.jpg

This account has been x6 since the beginning of my thread started.

On FF Trade Explorer.
https://i.snag.gy/l8NqP0.jpg
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #82
  • Jan 11, 2018 7:07am Jan 11, 2018 7:07am
https://i.snag.gy/z1nTOD.jpg

Ref:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post10656379
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #83
  • Jan 11, 2018 7:11am Jan 11, 2018 7:11am
https://i.snag.gy/GzibP0.jpg

Ref:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post10649864 (It should be AUD/JPY, not EUR/USD, didn't notice properly)
But the TP is 1.2026 and SL on 1.1914

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post10652964

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post10654425

Signal rocks!
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #84
  • Jan 11, 2018 8:49am Jan 11, 2018 8:49am
Can you tell a bit more about your strategy?
Everyday better.
  • #85
  • Jan 11, 2018 9:11am Jan 11, 2018 9:11am
Quoting arlucad
Can you tell a bit more about your strategy?
Hmm? What part did you not understand? I've explain the major detail on the 1st post.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=720279

It is the simplest strategy even kids can understand, it only implement, the risk reward ratio, the percentage of the win rate of the trade, then snowball your profit.
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #86
  • Jan 12, 2018 9:56am Jan 12, 2018 9:56am
Almost hit TP.

https://i.snag.gy/V0r93s.jpg

I'm going to finish calculate, it took me 4 whole months day and night and day and night to calculate and experiment, idealize this strategy.

I will see if I'm able to get to the account x4 next week.
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #87
  • Jan 12, 2018 10:17am Jan 12, 2018 10:17am
Bad, just 1 more pip to hit TP, and it retrace, that always happen, -20pips from TP now.

https://i.snag.gy/y4SBVP.jpg

I will post signal if I happen to see them.
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #88
  • Jan 12, 2018 10:57am Jan 12, 2018 10:57am
EUR/JPY - 90% Win Trade - 4:1
Current: 134.92
TP: 134.48
SL: 135.75
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #89
  • Jan 12, 2018 2:14pm Jan 12, 2018 2:14pm
Very interesting, and good gains too. Do i get the strategy right? :

- Very high win ratio and low loss ratio.
- Losses are x times bigger.
- You scale in.
- Hedge??
- Mean reversion?
  • #90
  • Jan 12, 2018 2:45pm Jan 12, 2018 2:45pm
Quoting Abade
Very interesting, and good gains too. Do i get the strategy right? : - Very high win ratio and low loss ratio. - Losses are x times bigger. - You scale in. - Hedge?? - Mean reversion?
1. Yes, can be upto 95%
2-3. Depends how far you can get with consecutive win, if 95% is 1/20, then you may get around 15~30 consecutive win before losing.
So, your $10, may become $2,000 and gone $0.
4. Hedge... Either you have plenty of time to look at the market 24/5, I believe you can hedge a few pip of your reverse direction.
Say, $10 on EURUSD 1.200, TP 1.210, SL 1.19, Win $1, Win Rate 95%, you may hedge to take another $1, or if it went directly to your TP, you only lose your spread cost. But I've notice the signal of 95% often went straight to the TP, so I didn't post those signal over here, I only post signal that are validated, and still have space to enter. Although it is 95% win rate initial, as the pips draw, 95% is not really the exact number at all. I've include an image either, comparing the Risk and Reward ratio, although 3/30, and 10/100 has the same Risk and Reward ratio, but 3/30 has an average of 75% win rate, and 12/120 has a 88% win rate. The SL actually happens to help boosting a percentage of win rate. Then, leverage comes into play, a blockage for me to run high. Otherwise, I believe this account should be similar to Tickmill
https://www.forexfactory.com/rapidace#acct.31

And, although your TP is constant on 20, 20/40 has an average of 60% win rate, 20/150 averagely 88%, 20/250 - 91%.

5. Not really, but I do enter minor position as it draws downward.
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #91
  • Jan 12, 2018 2:47pm Jan 12, 2018 2:47pm
Stubborn AUD/JPY
https://i.snag.gy/YlCG8t.jpg

Guess I can receive 3 days interests from Oanda.
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #92
  • Jan 14, 2018 10:56am Jan 14, 2018 10:56am
Average day of consecutive losses in a week for 20/200 is 2 days,
Trending will bomb a streak loss, but rarely occurred continuously in week(s).
Studies in historical data shows, losses in 10/100 mostly occurred in a trending mode.
If signal continuously shows up in 12am to 12pm, and the currency in trending, I wouldn't open more than 1 position for sure.
But in reverse, 10/100 may hit continuously win streak in a day, rather than losses in a day.

Calculation based on the win rate I'm playing with, only increase slight a percentage of win rate, say, a break even of 50/100 is 66.7%.
Mine is 68%, instead of 65%

And 11/99, is 90.6%, instead of 88%.

If reverse trending is the enemy of this strategy... Charts shows trending occurred no more than 3-4 days in average then stabilize, then safe to enter trades again.

If 20/200 = 95% win rate then, trading with interests, I believe it is the safest solution for win streaks.
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #93
  • Edited 10:08am Jan 15, 2018 9:31am | Edited 10:08am
'm glad I found this! I will be focusing this for a while, I found my calculation has a bit flawed, say if statically the pair EUR/USD has a winning rate of 90% over the last 88 trades, doesn't mean the next trade will be for some reason, win.

I also found flawed when your SL gives over 200 pips, that takes averagely more than 2 weeks to settle, unless it is trending.

If my experiment went right, I will post the information here.

Edit:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=467309
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #94
  • Jan 15, 2018 10:58am Jan 15, 2018 10:58am
I found a holy grail implement with my strategy, here is the screenshot.
It was made by Proximus

Yet, some trades take months to trade off, the TP and SL is differ in every trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 39 KB
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #95
  • Jan 16, 2018 8:31pm Jan 16, 2018 8:31pm
Quoting rapidace
It had been a month of two, I'm trying to develop a system, when you can make $10 to $3,000 in 60 consecutive win trades. This feels gambling on a casino than trading on Forex, forex are more flexible in term of the amount of lot you entered and adjusting the TP/SL will increase the win rate as well. Probably people will come condemn that 10:1 risk reward wouldn't work, try 1:3 risk reward instead and your account will burn before you make your first profit. 10:1 risk reward holds a 90.91%, break even chance, more like 1:1 has a 50%, like a coin...
Very interesting Strategy!
Did I get this right:

You risk 100% of capital to make 10% income on each trade. The trade has very high probability to make 10% over 90% probability. It has a very low probability to lose 100%..lower than 10% probability?
Since the probability of losing is so low...you are counting on winning 60 trades each time 10% to make a cumulative growth of 30,000% ($10 to $3000)

Seems very interesting in theory. Can you provide an example of trades with over 90% winning probability with a 10:1 risk-reward ratio?
  • #96
  • Edited 2:38pm Jan 17, 2018 9:14am | Edited 2:38pm
Quoting yalgaar
{quote} Very interesting Strategy! Did I get this right: You risk 100% of capital to make 10% income on each trade. The trade has very high probability to make 10% over 90% probability. It has a very low probability to lose 100%..lower than 10% probability? Since the probability of losing is so low...you are counting on winning 60 trades each time 10% to make a cumulative growth of 30,000% ($10 to $3000) Seems very interesting in theory. Can you provide an example of trades with over 90% winning probability with a 10:1 risk-reward ratio?
I believe this thread is the purpose of doing this?

I've attached the Trade Explorer on the Top, with TickMill and Oanda 2, they both implement this strategy.
Though, are not 10:1 in static, but randomly at 5:1 to 10:1, depending when the signal is found.

If you read the thread a bit, some trade has better % in return than the static 10%.
Say the signal shows Entry Point 1.2000, TP 1.20100, SL 1.19000.
And the price is now floating around 1.1970, I still enter $10, taking a 7:4, meaning risking $10 for $5.5.
The signal still stays 90% because.. Perhaps you may find it as a false signal, but through experiments and research on the historical(like 4 months of calculation), the 90% chances aren't false signal, they still fluctuating below the Entry Price before hitting it's TP.
That you may see a big draw in the Green Line on Graph on the Strategy Tester on MT4.
That explain 10TP/40SL has a 75%, 10TP/100SL has 90%, what is means is, there are an extra of 15% it will draws over 40SL. Given a space for you to enter the trade when the price draws.

So that's not really 60 consecutive trades to get 30,000%. I'm proving my strategy with this thread, you may bookmark my Trade Explorer, I will trade until I make $5,000 and enter Dukascopy. By the way, I have increase my account by 600%. Frustration of waiting, is what I can't calm down from.

I'm re-calculating my signal, to improve the winning rate as possible.
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #97
  • Jan 18, 2018 5:15am Jan 18, 2018 5:15am
The signal of USD/CHF was shown to SL on 0.95720, yet I was almost hit twice and not getting hit, nor the TP being touched too.

How should I define this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 71 KB
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #98
  • Jan 18, 2018 6:09am Jan 18, 2018 6:09am
This is the signal from AUD/CHF, buying position and I did not enter! I thought 19:00 was 9PM, 24hr system may be confusing some time.
With each of them 10TP/100SL.

19:30 is a good time to enter, heck I forgot it was not 9:30PM but 7:30PM.

The 20:00 signal is half way to it's TP.

We got Signal on AUD/CHF for
12:30 GMT
12:45 GMT
14:00 GMT
14:30 GMT
14:45 GMT

ALL 10TP/100SL.

Believe or not, I can't post like this everyday.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 129 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 132 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 133 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot5.png Size: 134 KB
Odd numbers are odd.
  • #99
  • Jan 19, 2018 8:01am Jan 19, 2018 8:01am
You have mentioned "signal" several times in this thread. What signals are these? Who is the signal provider?
  • #100
  • Jan 19, 2018 9:31am Jan 19, 2018 9:31am
Quoting yalgaar
You have mentioned "signal" several times in this thread. What signals are these? Who is the signal provider?
Well I also did mention on the 1st post how these signal were created. You create an EA, backtest to optimize the best result and compile the data. Say moving average has different setting to create different percentage of signal, bollinger band, MACD has too, with different setting, you get different outcome, and you just look depth in where are the setting can be optimize for best result.
Odd numbers are odd.
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