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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #5,921
  • Jan 17, 2018 1:10pm Jan 17, 2018 1:10pm
So here you have a clear example of the edge a trader could have against his competitors when and if he is able to correctly evaluate Market Generated Information and use them accordingly:

 

  1. MGI gave us the precious information about the importance of 38355 as a main level just below the brexit huge gap downside. And we used it as a reference starting from 2 days ago. In fact I wrote this 2 days ago:

Quoting Lock
.... Next visible level upside is 2016 02 29 GB major bracket low at 38355 (just below the huge pit gap downside 38375-47397 made during brexit)...

  1. Then, knowing that we could wait for a reaction if reached we could profit from selling to it: exactly the opportunity we got when Tokyo liquidated from it during overnight.

Quoting Lock
{quote} So after one day and multiple sessions in balance up and down, eventually Tokyo tonight managed to test the main level upside, meaning 38355 (tagged at the pip). And after that it heavily liquidated

  1. But after that we could also wait for a possible retest of it made by upcoming PreUS and Pit sessions: and in fact I added to the previous comment:

Quoting Lock
.... Now we have to see if this overnight test will be enough for other market participants (GB and Pit) or if they will need further independent tests of it. ....

  1. After that I also suggest to considering the following further MGI:

Quoting Lock
Now I suggest to wait for preUS and pit sessions in order to evaluate US participants reaction to current environment, noting that we have a pit poor high at 3799 and a cluster at yesterday pit half back around 3763. Plus the old remaining pit gap upside at 3744-37493.
Quoting Lock
Note also that price is balancing around composite poc 3793. About preUS and Pit the main level to consider will be the current yearly pit highest close at 3791: monitor for acceptation above or below it after pit open.

  1. With those comments I underlined the conflicting information we had at the time and the way we could search for an answer evaluating acceptation above 3791. SO when Pit opened above this value and obtained acceptation above it we eventually have a clue about the odds for continuation upside (instead than downside)
  2. Then price reached 38355, but also the next 38428, so I added new comments:

Quoting Lock
Remember that for any serious continuation upside pit session must obtain as a prerequisite acceptation above 38355.
Quoting Lock
If not take note of the fact that the last days action (including today) left downside a substantial amount of serious weaknesses like current pit poor low at 37925, yesterday pit cluster at 3763 and Tokyo poor low at 3729. If we will see acceptation above 38355 we could start to see the filling of the huge brexit gap towards 47397
Quoting Lock
38428 is the 2016 pit year low before brexit break (it is the lowest extreme of the 2016 major pit bracket): so acceptation is obviously needed also above it for continuation upside.

  1. Then price after automatic selling just above both 38355 and 38428 went into balance (balance rules applied) and eventually broke above these levels starting the filling of the huge pit gap downside made during brexit. (higher extreme of the gap, just as a direction, is 47397)

Conclusion

Without knowing the importance of both 38355 and 38428 (market generated information) we would not have had the opportunity to wait for some reaction when reached nor to expect some important action upside in case of acceptation above it.
Furthermore, instead of being trapped in the middle of the pit session balance game, knowing the importance of 3791, we got basic odds to the right direction from start.
Finally when we saw price stalling below 38355 and 34428, eventually coming into m30 periods balance: we could simply use balance rules to profit from the situation (closing any sell from above the levels) and coming into buy just at m30 breakout upside.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,922
  • Jan 17, 2018 1:34pm Jan 17, 2018 1:34pm
Now, waiting for tomorrow (for those who do not trade overnight like me): the main levels to consider will be downside 38355 and 38428 and 38377 just in the middle of them. The former being the pit high of 24 06 2016: the higher level reached by pit action after brexit break.

Then it will be very important to evaluate the building of a new possible GB gap upside from this morning GB high at 38075 A new GB gap upside tomorrow at GB open could give us an early indication of a possible continuation upside. An other important level will be 38235 current year highest GB close: acceptation above or below it after GB open could provide us other precious information about odds for continuation upside (or not)

Finally I suggest to take note of the major composite pocs in this zone: 3794,3862, 3932 and far upside 4156. The first in the list could be useful in case of substantial liquidation as generally composite poc tend to work as magnets during free fall. The last one instead could be useful in case of serious continuation upside. The second and the third could be very important in case of a pause around current levels.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,923
  • Jan 17, 2018 1:40pm Jan 17, 2018 1:40pm
PS: upside (in case of continuation) note the presence of a multi pass gap zone from 3979 to 4012: it could attract price action during pit session (meaning tomorrow after pit open or today until 23:00+1GMT in the case current liquidation will stop and reverse)

PPS: Note also the extreme elongation of current pit session. Do not be surprised by a possible liquidation in order to smooth the current profile shape.

See you tomorrow. Best, L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,924
  • Jan 18, 2018 1:22am Jan 18, 2018 1:22am
Quoting Lock
Now, waiting for tomorrow (for those who do not trade overnight like me): the main levels to consider will be downside 38355 and 38428 and 38377 just in the middle of them. ...

Quoting Lock
....Finally I suggest to take note of the major composite pocs in this zone: 3794,3862, 3932 and far upside 4156. The first in the list could be useful in case of substantial liquidation as generally composite poc tend to work as magnets during free fall. The last one instead could be useful in case of serious continuation upside. The second and the third could be very important in case of a pause around current levels.
Quoting Lock
.... PPS: Note also the extreme elongation of current pit session. Do not be surprised by a possible liquidation in order to smooth the current profile shape. See you tomorrow. Best, L.
Good morning.
Note that the entire yesterday pit action has been retraced by pit itself. Surprised? We should not. That action was clearly too elongated to remain as it was. Note also that the free fall of the liquidation is now in the proximity of the composite poc 3794 that I listed yesterday as the most probable zone to reach in such a case. Note also that 38355 and 38428 continued to play a key role during Tokyo session: without acceptation above them, Tokyo again liquidated.

Read previous posts for the main levels to consider at GB open.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,925
  • Jan 18, 2018 1:59am Jan 18, 2018 1:59am
Quoting Lock
....Then it will be very important to evaluate the building of a new possible GB gap upside from this morning GB high at 38075 A new GB gap upside tomorrow at GB open could give us an early indication of a possible continuation upside.
Quoting Lock
An other important level will be 38235 current year highest GB close: acceptation above or below it after GB open could provide us other precious information about odds for continuation upside (or not).....
GB is going to open right here: watch out and monitor for acceptation below or above these levels.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,926
  • Jan 18, 2018 2:05am Jan 18, 2018 2:05am
Lock,

Any thoughts on the reversal at 1.39415? Why this area?

Thanks
TULKAS
  • #5,927
  • Jan 18, 2018 2:05am Jan 18, 2018 2:05am
Quoting Lock
Now, waiting for tomorrow (for those who do not trade overnight like me): the main levels to consider will be downside 38355 and 38428 and 38377 just in the middle of them. The former being the pit high of 24 06 2016: the higher level reached by pit action after brexit break. ....
Note that at GB open we are immediately here to test 38355 and 38428.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,928
  • Jan 18, 2018 2:10am Jan 18, 2018 2:10am
Quoting Tulkas
Lock, Any thoughts on the reversal at 1.39415? Why this area? Thanks
Well, try to link the low of 23 01 2009 to the low of 29 02 2016 and you'll find the answer...
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,929
  • Jan 18, 2018 2:18am Jan 18, 2018 2:18am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Well, try to link the low of 23 01 2009 to the low of 29 02 2016 and you'll find the answer...
Difficult to see ahead of time... Obviously a natural place for reversal but the actual price escapes me...
TULKAS
  • #5,930
  • Jan 18, 2018 2:20am Jan 18, 2018 2:20am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Well, try to link the low of 23 01 2009 to the low of 29 02 2016 and you'll find the answer...
I mean, you always have to proceed with a top-down approach: here we are speaking about a monthly major level. When you see price coming upside with a very sharp elongated action towards a main level such this one you should be prepared for some substantial reaction when reached. Specially if price will go above it (not a simple tag).
This does not mean that it is over and that the level will resist, but it means that you got to be prepared for what we saw yesterday. Without a broader perspective upon major timeframes in such situations you're trading in a vacuum.
Best, L
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,931
  • Jan 18, 2018 2:23am Jan 18, 2018 2:23am
And btw this is exactly the reason I was prepared to consider 38355 and 38428 with a lot of attention: without knowing where these levels are and why they are so important I would not have had the opportunity to profit from them.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,932
  • Jan 18, 2018 2:28am Jan 18, 2018 2:28am
Quoting Lock
And btw this is exactly the reason I was prepared to consider 38355 and 38428 with a lot of attention: without knowing where these levels are and why they are so important I would not have had the opportunity to profit from them.
38355: I started to underline the importance of this level on Monday. Then I added 38428: and again it worth to note it as you may appreciate right now. I also stressed its importance yesterday evening when all the world was crazily buying 100 pips above here. But as you see, after 10 hours we find price again glued here. Am I a wizard? Obviously no. Anyone could find and use such levels. But not everyone take care of these market provided information while trading.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,933
  • Jan 18, 2018 2:34am Jan 18, 2018 2:34am
There is a phrase we use in the States called "The Perfect Swing" referring to that one, single time you hit the golf ball perfectly. Once you've done it, it haunts you until you are able to reproduce it! Your gracious contribution here is "The Perfect Swing". You prove it can be done. Now we are haunted until we are able to do the same! Many thanks!
TULKAS
  • #5,934
  • Jan 18, 2018 2:35am Jan 18, 2018 2:35am
Quoting Tulkas
{quote} Difficult to see ahead of time... Obviously a natural place for reversal but the actual price escapes me...
You have not to search for important levels during action. Never, ever. You got to study your charts continuously and put the main levels on them.
You always got to have the main timeframes charts opened in front of you with all the main level on them. When price reaches these levels on the m30 profile chart you'll see this on the other Daily, weekly and monthly charts.

Only in this manner you could react promptly when such an event will occur. Otherwise it will almost impossible to evaluate the situation, find the main levels and react on the spot: and you're going to loose opportunities or money.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,935
  • Jan 18, 2018 2:40am Jan 18, 2018 2:40am
Quoting Tulkas
There is a phrase we use in the States called "The Perfect Swing" referring to that one, single time you hit the golf ball perfectly. Once you've done it, it haunts you until you are able to reproduce it! Your gracious contribution here is "The Perfect Swing". You prove it can be done. Now we are haunted until we are able to do the same! Many thanks!
Thanks, but it is important to note that any day, during any session you may find good opportunities so that even if you miss something like yesterday you will not fixate on finding a new "similar" case. Remember: any day you generally find one or two good opportunities to exploit. The important thing is to not search dramatically for them: let the market provide them for you. Let the market do this job for you.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,936
  • Jan 18, 2018 2:44am Jan 18, 2018 2:44am
Quoting Lock
{quote} You have not to search for important levels during action. Never, ever. You got to study your charts continuously and put the main levels on them. You always got to have the main timeframes charts opened in front of you with all the main level on them. When price reaches these levels on the m30 profile chart you'll see this on the other Daily, weekly and monthly charts. Only in this manner you could react promptly when such an event will occur. Otherwise it will almost impossible to evaluate the situation, find the main levels and react...
Please flag this post for "Essential Lock". Sage advice.
TULKAS
  • #5,937
  • Jan 18, 2018 3:03am Jan 18, 2018 3:03am
So, we have conflicting information here: we got a new GB gap upside from yesterday GB high 38075 and we are above current year GB highest close 38235. At the same time we got no acceptation above 38355 and 38428. The former two levels are good spots to sell as they provide a good place to put your stops (right above them) and also they offer a good possible profit considering the very mess of weaknesses left downside and the presence of the magnet composite poc 3794.

But remember that unless the new GB gap will be filled and acceptation found back inside yesterday GB session range (below yesterday GB high 38075) and below current year GB highest close 38235 we will not have any confirmation of the possibility for a continuation downside.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,938
  • Jan 18, 2018 3:14am Jan 18, 2018 3:14am
Now an other information about yesterday late liquidation during pit session: first of all it has been a liquidation. Meaning old business versus new business. This is given by the fact that bigger participants do not butcher a market like that and they do not perform sell positions in that manner, without any pause. Secondly as you see the pit profile left upside 7 back to back anomalies: and this is an other sign of weak participation.

Big participants "sign" are generally more smoothed profiles without all these anomalies and this is due to the reasons I stressed previously: they sell then pause, then they sell again, then pause again: this way of action produce a smoothed profile. While the one we got from yesterday is a full sell without any pause.

This does not mean it's over and it cannot liquidate any lower. It means that for now we saw automatic sell orders placed upon a very major level and a substantial liquidation of all the weak buyers that let price reach that level. In the further hours we could see bigger timeframes deciding to add their position over the current liquidation in which case we could see something serious downside. At the opposite we could see other market participants stepping in to reverse the liquidation and retest, this time more seriously, the same level tested yesterday.

As a conclusion, carry forward the information regarding the current environment: we are in a balance after a liquidation.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,939
  • Jan 18, 2018 3:21am Jan 18, 2018 3:21am
Quoting Lock
... But remember that unless the new GB gap will be filled and acceptation found back inside yesterday GB session range (below yesterday GB high 38075) and below current year GB highest close 38235 we will not have any confirmation of the possibility for a continuation downside.
Update: for now the new GB gap upside is still in place (above 38075 yesterday GB session high) and we got a clear rejection below 38235. If you sold above 38428 I suggest to be ready to close before to be stopped out.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,940
  • Jan 18, 2018 3:23am Jan 18, 2018 3:23am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Update: for now the new GB gap upside is still in place (above 38075 yesterday GB session high) and we got a clear rejection below 38235. If you sold above 38428 I suggest to be ready to close before to be stopped out.
Not a suggestion to do something. But a suggestion to be prepared to do something
Ubi maior minor cessat
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